What If Donald Trump Got Assassinated?

On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. The bullet, fired from 140 meters away, grazed his ear as he turned his head at just the right moment. Had he not moved, the outcome could have been fatal. This event raises questions about what might happen if Donald Trump had been assassinated that day. Who would replace him, and could this lead to an American Civil War?

Immediate Political Impact

If Trump had been assassinated on July 13, 2024, the most pressing issue would be determining his replacement as the Republican Presidential nominee. This timing, right before the Republican National Convention on July 15, would create a chaotic and frantic situation. The delegates would need to quickly select a new nominee, likely through a series of backroom deals and public speeches from potential candidates. Since Trump faced no strong opposition during the primaries, almost anyone could be considered, including those who didn't run in the primaries. The decision would be made on the convention floor, resulting in a messy and rushed process.

Broader Societal Reactions

Outside of politics, the aftermath could be unpredictable and potentially terrifying. Donald Trump, known for his passionate supporters, would become a martyr if assassinated. This could lead to civil unrest and violence, particularly among the extreme fringe of his base. While it's not guaranteed, the intense emotions could spark outbursts similar to the events of January 6, 2021. President Biden, as the commander-in-chief, would have to manage any resulting chaos and ensure it doesn't escalate into a full-scale civil war.

Political Consequences and Election Dynamics

Trump's assassination would likely further energize his supporters, who might idolize him even more. This could lead to increased voter turnout for the new Republican nominee, whoever that may be. If Trump were incapacitated but not killed, the party would have to decide if he could continue as the nominee, considering his health and ability to serve if elected.

Scenarios Based on Timing

If the assassination attempt happened after the Republican National Convention, Trump would already be the nominee. If he were to die before the election, the Republican Party would need to select a new candidate, possibly reconvening the National Convention or choosing someone like his running mate, JD Vance, though this isn't guaranteed.

If Trump won the election and then died before being sworn in, the vice president-elect wouldn't automatically become president since Trump wouldn't be officially sworn in. The 25th Amendment wouldn't apply, adding another layer of complexity.

Potential for Civil Unrest or Civil War

The possibility of extreme civil unrest or violence following Trump's assassination is real, given the deep political divisions in the United States. While some might hope for unity in the face of such a tragedy, the current political climate suggests otherwise.

In summary, the assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, 2024, would have significant and far-reaching consequences, both politically and socially. The immediate scramble to find a replacement nominee, the potential for civil unrest, and the impact on the election dynamics would create a highly volatile and uncertain situation.