India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire?

• In a significant development, India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire along their disputed border in Kashmir. After years of tensions, cross-border clashes and numerous casualties, the agreement has raised cautious optimism. But the key question remains: Will the ceasefire last, or is it just another temporary pause in a long-running conflict?
• The India-Pakistan rivalry dates back to 1947, when the two countries emerged from British colonial rule. Divided along religious lines, the partition of British India created Pakistan, a Muslim-majority state, and India, a Hindu-majority secular nation. However, the partition was accompanied by widespread violence, mass migration and intense hostilities that continue to this day. The Kashmir issue in particular has been a major point of contention. Both India and Pakistan claim the region in its entirety but control parts of it. This territorial dispute has resulted in three major wars (1947–48, 1965 and 1971), numerous border clashes and an arms race, including nuclear weapons.

Over the years, Kashmir has been the epicentre of border violence dividing the two countries. Despite occasional peace talks, sporadic ceasefires and international mediation efforts, the situation remains tense. Cross-border shelling, militant infiltration and periodic clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces have created a perpetual cycle of instability.

What has changed as a result of this ceasefire?

The ceasefire agreement comes after months of intense tension, with both countries accusing each other of violating previous ceasefire agreements. India's defence ministry has hailed the agreement as "a step towards peace", while Pakistan's military has hailed it as a positive development, noting that it could provide much-needed relief to civilians living in the border area.

The ceasefire itself encompasses a range of activities, including a cessation of cross-border artillery fire, shelling and small arms exchanges. However, the agreement significantly excludes militants or other non-state actors, leaving open the possibility of violent activity outside of military operations.

Prospects for a lasting peace: Challenges ahead

While the declaration of a ceasefire is a step towards peace, there are several challenges that could undermine its sustainability.

1. The history of war, mistrust and competing narratives surrounding Kashmir will be difficult to erase overnight. As one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world, Kashmir has seen numerous tensions in the past, often due to political incidents, local insurgencies or terrorist attacks.

Even if the ceasefire between the armies is in place, there is no guarantee that the situation will not be sabotaged by militant or extremist groups active in the region. Groups based in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed or Lashkar-e-Taiba, have carried out deadly attacks in India in the past, prompting military retaliation.

2. Political pressure

Both governments face significant political pressure. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has long taken a hardline stance against Pakistan, particularly after the 2019 Pulwama attack, in which 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers were killed and blamed on Pakistan-based militants. In response, India carried out a controversial airstrike in Balakot, Pakistan, which raised tensions to a new high in years.

For Pakistan, the ceasefire is a diplomatic victory but could face resistance from hardliners who see India as an existential threat. Pakistan’s civilian leadership has sometimes struggled to assert control over the military, which wields significant power in shaping foreign policy, particularly with regard to India.