The Plot Thickens (Week 15)

Well, here it is. The last week before the holidays, and as usual, the scenarios are starting to pile up. I also love that Week 15 gives us the first Saturday games of the season; a long time ago, the NFL gave us four straight weeks of Saturday football: Week 16, Week 17, Wild Card Weekend, and the Divisional Playoff. Week 17 stopped doing the Saturday thing over a decade ago, and when the 18-week season began in 2021, the Saturday games now take place during three of the final four weeks of the regular season, as well as the aforementioned playoff rounds.

Saturday football does spread out the scenarios, as some teams could be scoreboard watching on Thursday and Saturday if necessary. Before we get to Week 15's scenarios, here's a look at the playoff picture entering the final four weeks of the season.

In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs remain tied atop the conference at 10-3, with the Bills' head-to-head advantage making them the #1 team. The Baltimore Ravens stand at #3 after improving to 9-4, while the Tennessee Titans remain at #4 after dropping to 7-6. It definitely looks like the AFC South is on their way to becoming just like their NFC counterparts, with only the winner qualifying and locking up the #4 position, but a home playoff game is a home playoff game.

The Ravens remain tied for the AFC North lead with the Cincinnati Bengals, but thanks to head-to-head, the Bengals (9-4) remain at the #1 Wild Card position. The Miami Dolphins are 8-5 and hold the #2 Wild Card position, and the New England Patriots now hold the last position at 7-6. The Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Jets hold the same record, but the Patriots are above the playoff line due to tiebreakers (conference record over LAC; divisional record over NYJ). Behind those three 7-6 teams are four teams at 5-8: the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Cleveland Browns, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Indianapolis Colts are behind those clubs at 4-8-1. Even crazier: out of all five teams I just mentioned, only the Jaguars cannot be eliminated this week--the benefit of being in a struggling division.

In the NFC, the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles stand on top of the conference at 12-1, and they now sit two games ahead of the 2nd-seeded Minnesota Vikings (10-3). The San Francisco 49ers hold the #3 position at 9-4, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still lead the NFC South...at 6-7. The NFC South continues to be deliciously mediocre, yet awesome. As for the Wild Card standings, all positions are occupied by the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys hold the top position at 10-3, while the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants are tied at 7-5-1.

Because of their tie, the second tiebreaker applies, which is divisional record. The Commanders have that edge because they have one division win (against the Eagles, of all teams), while the Giants don't. The slumping Seattle Seahawks fell behind the playoff line after dropping to 7-6, while the surging Detroit Lions are right behind them at 6-7. The Green Bay Packers are still alive (barely) at 5-8, while the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have the same record (but have better chances for obvious reasons). The Arizona Cardinals, the Los Angeles Rams, and the New Orleans Saints are all 4-9 and can be eliminated this week. And with the Rams playing on Monday Night Football, their season could be over before they take the field.

So that's the picture, and now for the scenarios. The Eagles became the first team to join the dance, and five other teams can lock in spots in Week 15. They are as follows:

The Bills are definitely on a mission this season. The past few seasons have seen them return to prominence, but they fell sort every year, usually against the Chiefs--who actually served as Buffalo's one excuse. Now the excuses are gone, as the expectations have vastly increased; they're actually favored to win it all this year. First, they have to get into the playoffs, and the Bills can do just that this week. All they have to do is defeat the Miami Dolphins on Saturday. That's it. However, if that game ends in a tie, there's still three additional ways for Buffalo to get in. One, a Chargers loss. Two, losses from the Jets and Patriots. Or three, a Jets loss coupled with ties from the Chargers and Patriots. The Jets are at home against the Detroit Lions, while the Patriots are in Vegas facing the Raiders, with both games occurring on Sunday.

The Chiefs barely escaped Denver this past week, but the win was enough to allow them to (at least) control their division destiny in case the Chargers won (which they did). Also because of the win, the Chiefs could get in the playoffs with a tie, but they'll need help: losses from the Jets and Patriots, a Patriots tie and losses from the Jets and Dolphins, or a Jets tie and losses from the Patriots and Dolphins. Of course, if the Chiefs win, then the AFC West is theirs. It can also be theirs with a tie and a Chargers tie, or if the Chargers lose. The Chiefs are in Houston against the 1-11-1 Texans, while the Chargers host the Tennessee Titans this week (both games take place on Sunday).

You know, I'm going to be honest here: I truly expected the Minnesota Vikings to clinch the NFC North this past week. I can't believe that this is the third straight week that they have this scenario. Now the first time wasn't their fault; the Vikings won their game, but the Lions won theirs as well. It happens. However, this past week, the Vikings only had to beat the Lions, and that didn't happen. Even so, the Vikings still control their own destiny regarding the division: a win or tie will do it. The Vikings host the Indianapolis Colts in the first game of a Saturday tripleheader. They better win that game, because it would be embarrassing for them if they have to wait until Sunday and watch the Lions/Jets game.

Last season saw the Los Angeles Rams, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Arizona Cardinals all reach the playoffs from the NFC West, while the Seattle Seahawks were the odd team out. This year saw the Seahawks shock the world and take the West lead, but their slump has allowed the Niners to take control and enter Week 15 with a chance to lock up the division. All they have to do to win the NFC West is beat Seattle on Thursday Night Football. That's it. Always nice to see a Thursday game connected to at least one clinching scenario; it increases that games importance.

The Dallas Cowboys are definitely survivors this season. They've beaten so many odds so far. They've survived playing two months without Dak Prescott. They've survived the usual running back carousel between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. And most of all, they've survived having Mike McCarthy as their head coach. The Cowboys stand at 10-3 entering Week 15, and they also enter the week with a chance to lock in a playoff spot. All they have to do is win, and they face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. However, they have five other ways to get in, and three of them involved the Cowboys tying. If Dallas does tie, they can get in with a losses from either the Giants or Commanders, or with a Seahawks loss or tie. Regarding the remaining scenarios, a Seahawks loss coupled with either a Commanders loss or a Lions loss or tie will get it done. Here's the funny part: the Giants and Commanders face each other on Sunday Night Football, which means if Dallas does tie (and Seattle wins on TNF), they are in the playoffs as long as someone wins that Sunday Night game--unless the Giants and Commanders tie each other again.

And those are the scenarios for Week 15! If all works out, then the NFC field will be over half full, with three spots left. This is usually the week that the playoff picture starts to shape up, and regarding Week 15, it should be quite and interesting week from start to finish.

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