One Down, 13 To Go (Week 16)

I love Week 16, and it's mainly because it occurs during Christmas time. Until this season, the Christmas and New Year's weeks served as the final two weeks of the NFL season, but now we have the additional week, so the holidays serve as a festive lead in to the final climax. Though Week 16 is now the antepenultimate week of the season, it's still pivotal to teams jockeying for playoff position. In the case of this season, it's extra pivotal. Only one team is officially in the playoffs entering Week 16, leaving a whopping 13 spots up for grabs in the final three weeks. Seven of the spots could be filled this week, and five division titles could be wrapped up. Without further ado, the playoff picture.

In the AFC, the back-to-back defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are now at the top spot, as their seventh straight win improved them to 10-4. While their streak continued, the New England Patriots' win streak ended, as they dropped to 9-5. The Tennessee Titans also dropped to 9-5, but the Patriots are #2 due to their 7-2 conference record. Holding the #4 spot: the Cincinnati Bengals, who improved to 8-6 and took the lead in the AFC North.

Regarding the Wild Cards, there are four other 8-6 teams in the conference: the Los Angeles Chargers, the Buffalo Bills, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts, who defeated New England, have the best conference record at 7-3, putting them in the #5 position. The same tiebreaker places the Chargers in the #6 position, but as for the Bills and Ravens, they both went 5-5 in conference play. The next tiebreaker is common opponents, and that edge goes to the Bills, meaning that after holding the #1 spot in the conference weeks prior, the Ravens--thanks to losing two out of three due to failed two-point conversions--are now behind the playoff line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are keeping pace at 7-6-1 after their comeback win against Tennessee, and behind them are four teams at 7-7: the Las Vegas Raiders, the Cleveland Browns, the Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos. The Raiders lead the 7-7 teams, as after their win over Cleveland, they now have head-to-head edges over all three of them. Miami's 5-5 conference record puts them over the Browns and Broncos, and Cleveland is ahead of Denver due to head-to-head. Seriously, I love this logjam in the AFC; it reminds me of the Royal Rumble.

In the NFC, the playoff-bound NFC North Champion Green Bay Packers lead the conference by themselves at 11-3. The other three division leaders have 10-4 records, but the best one via tiebreaker is none other than the Dallas Cowboys, whose 8-1 conference record puts them ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals. Ironically, their one conference loss was against the Bucs, but in a three-way tie, conference record takes precedent. The Bucs and Cards have identical 6-4 conference records, but Strength of Victory places Tampa Bay over Arizona, who fell from #1 to #4 in barely over a week.

Even worse for the Cards, they are now tied for first place in the NFC West, as the Los Angeles Rams are also 10-4, but the Rams are a Wild Card team due to Arizona's superior record in division play. The San Francisco 49ers hold the #6 position at 8-6, and holding the vital #7 position? The Minnesota Vikings. Though the Vikings have the same conference record as the Philadelphia Eagles, it's Minnesota's record against common opponents that places them above the playoff line. The New Orleans Saints (coming off shutting out the Bucs) are also 7-7, while the Washington Football Team and the Atlanta Falcons drop to 6-8. Week 15 saw the Chicago Bears eliminated from playoff contention, and Week 16 will see the Falcons, the New York Giants, and the Carolina Panthers face elimination.

So again, seven teams can clinch, and five divisions can be wrapped up. Let's start with the AFC.

The Chiefs needed that overtime win against the Chargers, because a loss would put them behind the Bolts. Now they have earned the right to lock in a playoff spot, and all they have to do is beat the Steelers this week to do it. That's it. Even if they tie, they only need one of the following teams to lose: Bengals, Ravens, Colts, Bills. Just one of them. If that win comes with a Chargers loss or tie, then the Chiefs will win the AFC West once again. A tie would mean that the Chargers would have to lose. Now, the Chiefs are at home against the Steelers, but they face a setback. Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Harrison Butker are all in COVID protocols entering their meeting with the Steelers.

The Patriots had very complicated scenarios in Week 15. For Week 16, they're a bit simpler. The Patriots can get in with a win, a Ravens loss, a Steelers loss or tie, and an additional loss or tie from either the Browns or Colts. They can also get in with a win, a Colts loss or tie, and a loss from either the Chargers or Bengals. Another way is a win, a Chargers loss, and a Raiders loss or tie. Much simpler than the previous week. The Patriots can also wrap up the AFC East in Week 16; all they have to do is beat the Bills again, and the Dolphins have to lose or tie. The Dolphins will be in New Orleans facing the Saints on Monday Night Football.

The Colts' win in Week 15 prevented the Tennessee Titans from locking up the AFC South, and their own loss didn't help things, either. They have two ways to lock in a playoff spot, but they're lengthy. The Titans need a win, a Bills loss, a Dolphins loss or tie, and one of two additional scenarios: either the Browns, Steelers, Broncos, and Bengals all failing to win, or clinching the always complicated Strength of Victory tiebreaker. And regarding the AFC South, same as the previous week: win and Colts loss gets it. The Titans will kick off Week 16 by hosting the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football, the Browns will be in Lambeau, the Broncos are in Vegas, and the Bengals and Ravens will face each other.

In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys have another opportunity to get into the playoffs. Though they do play on Sunday Night Football against Washington, the fact that they need either a loss or tie from the Saints, a win or tie from the Buccaneers, or a loss from the Niners means that Dallas could get in the playoffs as early as Thursday! As for the NFC East, a win or tie will do it, an Eagles loss or tie will do it, or clinching SOV will get the job done. The Cowboys won't need much regarding SOV, just 1.5 combined wins from the following teams: Vikings, Chargers, Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars, and Falcons.

Despite their embarrassing home loss, the Tampa Buccaneers still control their own destiny. A Vikings loss puts Tampa Bay in the playoffs, and regarding the NFC South, the Bucs can clinch the division with a win or tie or a Saints loss or tie. The Bucs are in Charlotte to face the lowly Carolina Panthers, but they have injury problems. Chris Godwin is out for the season, Leonard Fournette's done for the rest of the regular season, and Mike Evans is banged up as well. Antonio Brown will be back for the team, but it still may not be enough in the long run.

Last but not least, the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams. If the season ended at this point, we would be looking at Cardinals/Rams Part III in Glendale. Each team has the same main scenario: win and in, or tie and in. Though, Arizona has had that scenario twice, and hasn't done it yet. There are many other ways the Cards can clinch, but I don't think Cards fans want to hear about how they can back in. The Rams have one other scenario: losses or ties from the Eagles and Saints will do it. The Cardinals host the Colts on Saturday, and regarding the Rams, they'll face the Vikings. The Eagles will host the New York Giants during Week 16 as well.

So there you have it, seven teams with a chance to get into the 2021 NFL Playoffs. Who will receive the gift of playoff spots and division titles on this Christmas weekend? This week will tell the tale.

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