MLB Pennant Race 2024: Do You Believe in Magic?

While many were enjoying the first of 18 NFL Sundays in the regular season, Major League Baseball's home stretch marched on. The first week of September came to a close, and after Sunday's action, the 2024 season has just three weeks--21 days remaining. Nothing really changed; of course, none of MLB's 12 postseason berths were taken, and only two eliminations commenced. Per usual in September's opening week, the eliminations were expected: the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins were both eliminated on September 3. Both teams are in their 32nd seasons, and in that time, the Rockies only reached the postseason five times--including their pennant win in 2007. The Marlins have only four postseasons in their history, with the first two resulting in championships, and they reached the postseason last year.

So with the needle barely moving in the last seven days, I want to talk about Magic Numbers. Magic Numbers are prevalent in all leagues, but they are most commonly mentioned in Major League Baseball. A Magic Number is the number of games needed for a team to clinch whatever they are going for; usually a postseason berth or a division title. This number is achieved by taking the number of games that the second place team (or the first team behind the playoff line) has remaining, and adding that number to said team's win total. Then, take that sum, and subtract the subjected team's win total from that aforementioned sum, and that's your Magic Number. If the team can clinch via a tiebreaker, the number remains the same. If not, add one to said number.

Let's look at some of the Magic Numbers, shall we?

Sequestered

The most recent week for the New York Yankees has been a bumpy one for sure. It took a walk-off grand slam from the Texas Rangers for us to finally tell Clay Holmes, "You know, this closing thing isn't for you." Eleven blown saves for Holmes. That loss actually knocked us out of first place, and I was absolutely livid, along with the rest of the Yankees fandom. After dropping two of three in Arlington, the Yankees went to Wrigley Field and took two out of three there, and that was all thanks to the pitching. In that series, the Yankees outscored the Cubs, 6-2. Yeah. We scored six runs in that entire series, but we took two of three. The Cubs have problems.

During this stretch, there was a common thread: no homers from Aaron Judge. Judge has gone almost two weeks without going yard, but that hasn't been a hindrance so far. The Yankees went 3-3 in the past week, but despite this, the team returned to first place on Saturday, and stayed there on Sunday despite losing, as the Baltimore Orioles have problems of their own. So what's our Magic Number? It's nine. The Yankees are nine wins away from reaching the postseason, so we can clinch that berth in the end of the week if things go real well. The Orioles' Magic Number to clinch a postseason berth is 10. As for the division, both teams have the same Magic Number: 19.

What's Next: The Yankees return home for the entire week; three against the Kansas City Royals, followed by a four-game set against the Boston Red Sox. Speaking of the Red Sox, the Orioles start their week in Fenway, and they will head to Detroit for a three-game weekend set--the first meeting of 2024 between those two teams.

Division Champs Next Week?

The National League Central has been sewn up for several weeks now. The Milwaukee Brewers have the largest division lead in baseball; they are nine games ahead of the Chicago Cubs with three weeks left in the season. They won season series over the Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds, but still have one more series left against the Pirates. However, they did just have a rough week. They dropped two of three to the Cardinals, and they also dropped two of three to the lowly Rockies. But as bad as the NL Central is, the Brewers can afford a lull.

So what is Milwaukee's Magic Number? It's 10--to lock up the division. That's the benefit of having the largest division lead in baseball, they also have the smallest divisional magic number in the league as well. The Brewers are, at most, ten wins away from winning their second straight NL Central crown, and their third in the last four years, and if things go right elsewhere, that division title could come by the end of the week.

What's Next: The Brewers head west for the entire week: three in San Francisco and three more in Arizona.

Fit to be Tied

Oooh boy! Things really picked up in the National League's Wild Card race, and thank goodness for that. With all of the NL's division races all but settled, the Wild Card is the only thing that's nail-biting, and with three weeks left, the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets are tied for the last spot. Even crazier, the Mets actually entered Sunday's action with a one game lead over the Braves, but that went away on that day. But who is the team above the playoff line via tiebreaker? Alonso, Lindor, and company in Queens, that's who. The season series is tied at 5-5, but the Mets have the second tiebreaker over Atlanta--a better divisional record than the Braves.

As a result, the Mets have the smaller Magic Number, theirs is 19 to get into the postseason, while the Braves have a Magic Number of 20. The Braves are three years removed from winning the World Series, but they have not won a postseason series since then. The Mets last made it in 2022, but it's marred by the fact that they ended up as a Wild Card after leading the division for all but six days of the season. The Braves have been plagued by injuries all season, but they've stayed afloat, while the Mets have been on a winning tear for a few weeks.

What's Next: The Braves have a makeup game coming up against the Reds, and after that, it's two games in DC followed by a four-game set against the mighty Dodgers. As for the Mets, they will head to Toronto and Philadelphia this week. The two teams will face each other in a three game-set during the final week of the regular season, taking place on September 24-26 in Atlanta.

I sense a very wild final three weeks of the season. There's a lot on the line and a lot to be settled, and there's still some close races out there. It would really be amazing if some of them needed the final weekend to decide, though I want the Yankees to settle that AL East as soon as humanly possible.

If you like this story, click the heart and the subscribe button, and feel free to comment below! Tips and pledges would be greatly appreciated, but only if you want to do so!