Let's Get This Party Started! (Week 13)

Time sure flies faster than KaVontae Turpin did during that kickoff return. It seems like yesterday that I was drafting Fantasy Football teams and getting ready for the season. Now here it is, three months later, and we are down to the final six weeks of the season, the final one-third of the year that will determine who joins the playoff party, and who ends up with a good or decent draft pick. This is the fifth year of the format that sends seven playoff teams per conference (four division champions and three Wild Cards), totalling 14 playoff teams overall.

The time to usually have serious talks about playoffs is usually on Thanksgiving, and this year, Thanksgiving begins that home stretch. Before we get to the main course (the scenarios), let's look at the standings.

In the American Football Conference, it's the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs stumbling their way to 10-1 and leading the entire conference. At #2, it's the one team who defeated the Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, at 9-2. The Pittsburgh Steelers are #3 at 8-3, and narrowly leading the AFC North, while the Houston Texans are still leading the AFC South and hold the #4 position despite losing three of their last four games.

As for the Wild Card positions, the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers was a key one for positioning, as the Ravens' win moved them to 8-4 and the #5 spot (the top Wild Card position), while the Chargers dropped to #6 (the second Wild Card position) at 7-4. At the #7 spot (the third Wild Card position), it's the surprise, on the rise Denver Broncos at 7-5. As for the also-rans, the Miami Dolphins (5-6) are the closest team behind the playoff line, in spite of their struggles without Tua. The Indianapolis Colts, who fell one win short of a playoff spot last year, are going backwards at 5-7, while the Cincinnati Bengals are really freefalling at 4-7. The remaining six teams are playing for the draft, and three of them (the teams with nine losses at this point) can be eliminated this week, with the Las Vegas Raiders possibly being eliminated as early as their Black Friday game.

And then there's the madness known as the National Football Conference. My conference. It may be wild, insane, and on all sorts of drugs, but at least my conference has a real 10-1 team known as the Detroit Lions. That team is #1 in the NFC, while the Philadelphia Eagles sit at #2 at 9-2. Sitting at #3 and #4, however? A pair of 6-5 teams. Yep, the NFC decided to double down on the nuttiness and give us not one, but two barely above par division leaders. The Seattle Seahawks lead the West at 6-5, and the Atlanta Falcons lead the South with that same record. Yet because of head-to-head, the Hawks sit at #3, while the Falcons are at #4. There's a good chance that the NFC could see two 9-win division champions this year. Wow!

Speaking of nine wins, that's what the top Wild Card position has. The Minnesota Vikings hold the #5 position at 9-2, while the Green Bay Packers hold the #6 position at 8-3. Amazing. We were 5-6 after 11 games last year. The #7 spot is held by the struggling Washington Commanders, who went from a shoo-in to win the NFC East to barely hanging on after losing three straight games. As for what's below the playoff line, there's the Arizona Cardinals at 6-5, right behind the Commanders, and in a first place tie with the Seahawks. We have three teams at 5-6 who all have legit shots: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Los Angeles Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers; with the Niners being at the bottom of the three team cluster. Even the three 4-7 teams (the New Orleans Saints, the Chicago Bears, and yes, the Dallas Cowboys) have some semblance of a shot, but they need too much to go right. The 3-8 Carolina Panthers aren't that far off from the division. Really, the only team who is screwed: the New York Giants--who can be eliminated on Turkey Day.

So that's the picture entering this home stretch, and already, three teams can get into this year's playoffs, and they are as follows:

As I expected, the Kansas City Chiefs can get in to the playoffs during Week 13, because there are a lot of AFC teams with at least 6 or 7 losses at this point. So yeah, the Chiefs can earn the right to officially go for a three-peat this week, and there are four ways they can get in. A win and a Dolphins loss or tie will do it. Same with a win and a Broncos loss, or a win, a Broncos tie, and a Chargers loss will get it done. If they tie, the Dolphins have to lose. The Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday, and they can actually clinch as early as that game, because the Dolphins will be at Lambeau on Thanksgiving night. The Chargers will be in Atlanta on Sunday, and the Broncos will host the Cleveland Browns on Monday.

So the Buffalo Bills can already wrap up the AFC East. I said that this team was done and would finish 9-8. They have nine wins entering Thanksgiving. And the AFC East is over because Tua was injured and Aaron Rodgers has singlehandedly destroyed the New York Jets. All the Bills need to lock up the AFC East once again is a win and a Dolphins loss. The Bills host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football, and from the looks of it, that division crown should come to Buffalo on the first of December.

It was during last year's Christmas week that the Detroit Lions won their first division title in over 30 years, but this year has seen the Lions in a whole other level. The Lions are the 10-1 team that the Chiefs were supposed to be; they have been tearing it up. As a result of this, the Lions can get in the playoffs this week, but their scenarios are quite long. Out of their seven scenarios, six of them include a win, the Niners losing or tying, and the Seahawks and Cardinals failing to win, but there's also the choice of either the Buccaneers losing or tying, or the Falcons and Commanders falling short. The seventh scenario that has the Lions tying, it would also need the Niners, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Buccaneers all losing, the Packers winning, and some scenarios for the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. The Lions kick off Thanksgiving against the Bears, so that's a win. Niners will definitely lose, but as for the rest, the Seahawks and Bucs are playing against ham-and-eggers, so it does look like the Lions will have to wait another week, but beating the Bears will help make things easier.

It's here, folks! The final stretch has arrived! It begins on Thanksgiving, intensifies on Christmas, and will end on January 5, 2025. I'm here for all of it, and I know you are, too!

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