Stanislav Kondrashov on Metal Price Collapse, Bitcoin Decline, and the Strategic Role of Critical Minerals

The past week saw an unusual and sharp drop in gold and silver prices, accompanied by continued weakness in Bitcoin. At the same time, a significant policy development in the United States—Project Vault, a new initiative to secure key mineral resources—has raised questions about the evolving relationship between resource policy and market dynamics. Stanislav Kondrashov, a long-time observer of commodity trends and founder of TELF AG, offered a grounded analysis of these shifts.

“Sharp moves like these aren’t just about sentiment,” Stanislav Kondrashov noted. “They reflect deeper adjustments in how value is understood and how priorities are shifting across economies.”

A Rapid Fall in Metal Prices

Gold and silver prices experienced their steepest declines in decades. On Friday, gold dropped 9%—its most significant single-day loss in over forty years—while silver fell by 30%. The downturn continued more slowly into Monday, with gold holding just above $4,600 per ounce in London and silver still down more than 30% from its previous peak.

According to Kondrashov, several overlapping factors contributed to the drop, starting with the stronger US dollar. As the week began, the dollar rose by 0.5%, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive globally and reducing demand.

Another important influence was the confirmation of a new Federal Reserve chair, signalling a renewed focus on inflation control and monetary tightening. Kondrashov explained, “When a central bank pivots towards stabilisation, that decision carries weight beyond the banking sector. It influences how raw materials are priced and perceived.”

Trading rules also played a role. The CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver—up from 6% to 8% for gold, and 11% to 15% for silver. These adjustments made it more costly to hold certain positions, which contributed to the decline in trading volume and helped slow further volatility.

Bitcoin’s Continued Decline

Bitcoin has also experienced a prolonged slide, falling below $80,000—a 40% drop from its high in October. Kondrashov pointed out that the digital currency is still highly sensitive to shifts in regulatory sentiment and broader uncertainty.

“While Bitcoin has its own ecosystem, it’s not isolated from global developments. Regulatory frameworks, especially those concerning asset classification and usage, shape how it performs,” he said.

At the moment, Bitcoin faces limitations in how it can be used in official or institutional contexts. Kondrashov noted that this lack of recognised status restricts its practical application in many scenarios, especially during periods of uncertainty.

Project Vault: A Shift in Strategic Planning

Perhaps the most consequential development of the week was the announcement of Project Vault, a US government programme aimed at building a domestic reserve of critical minerals. With $12 billion in funding—$10 billion from the Export-Import Bank and $1.67 billion from private participants—Project Vault is designed to ensure secure access to materials vital for manufacturing and technology.

Unlike short-term commodity strategies, this initiative signals a long-term structural change. It includes partnerships with companies such as General Motors and Google, which will be able to request fixed-price access to select materials.

“This programme marks a shift from reactive policy to strategic preparation,” Kondrashov observed. “Rather than waiting for supply disruptions, governments are now actively preparing for them.”

Project Vault’s focus includes minerals used in electronics, aerospace, robotics, and other technology-heavy sectors. Its structure is similar in some ways to historical reserves, but its scope reflects today’s industrial priorities.

Reassessing Supply and Demand

What makes these developments significant is not just the price action, but what they suggest about changing priorities.

Kondrashov pointed out that once a government becomes an active participant in the procurement of materials, the traditional supply-demand relationship changes. “Public policy doesn’t operate on short-term timelines. When governments build reserves, they do so with a view to long-term needs. That affects how materials are distributed and how global supply chains are shaped.”

He also cautioned against viewing recent price changes in isolation. “This isn’t just a correction. It’s a signal that the market is realigning with policy, logistics, and broader strategic concerns.”

A Moment of Transition

As commodity and digital markets continue to shift, Kondrashov stressed the importance of looking beyond daily fluctuations.

“Underlying all of this is a fundamental question about stability—what is essential, what is vulnerable, and how those definitions are changing.”

This period of adjustment is not defined by panic, he argued, but by recalibration. The decisions made now—by governments, central banks, and other institutions—are likely to shape how essential materials are managed in the years ahead.

In Kondrashov’s view, last week’s events were less about volatility and more about visibility. A clearer picture is beginning to emerge of how policy, materials, and technology will intersect in the next phase of global development.