Why the Massive Iran Protests Haven’t Toppled Its Clerical Establishment

In late 2025, Iran witnessed another wave of massive protests that swept across its cities. Sparked by economic hardship, political frustration, and a growing anger at the clerical establishment, these demonstrations drew international attention. Yet, despite the size, passion, and determination of the protesters, Iran’s leadership has not toppled. Why is that? Let’s break it down.

A System Built to Last

Iran’s political system is unlike most countries. At the top sits the Supreme Leader, who controls the military, the judiciary, and major state institutions. Under him is a dense network of councils, security forces, and loyal bureaucracies. This system isn’t just about governance—it’s designed to survive upheaval.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij militia are particularly crucial. These forces are deeply loyal to the clerics and have broad powers to monitor, suppress, and control dissent. Without fractures in these forces, protests struggle to achieve meaningful change.

It’s not just about force. The IRGC also dominates key sectors of the economy, from oil to construction. This means the regime’s survival is tied to economic interests, which makes isolating the leadership much harder.

History Shows the Pattern

Iran isn’t new to protests. The Green Movement of 2009 and the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022–23 are examples of massive uprisings that didn’t topple the regime. Why? One major reason: the security forces stayed loyal.

For a movement to succeed in dismantling a government, key parts of the state—especially the military and security services—usually need to defect. In Iran, that hasn’t happened. Even widespread social discontent struggles to succeed without unified leadership and control over strategic areas.

A Fragmented Opposition

One reason the protests haven’t toppled the government is the lack of a unified opposition. There’s no single leader or cohesive strategy behind the demonstrations. While exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi have tried to guide the movement, their influence inside the country is limited.

Divisions among opposition groups—monarchists, secular democrats, ethnic minority advocates, and others—make coordinated action difficult. Without a clear alternative or recognized leadership, protests risk losing focus and momentum.

Repression and Information Control

The Iranian government has responded to protests with brutal force. Reports describe mass arrests, shootings, and coerced confessions on state television to discredit activists.

The authorities have also restricted the internet, blocking social media and messaging apps. This disrupts communication, coordination, and international coverage. By cutting off the digital lifeline, the state makes it harder for protests to maintain energy and pressure.

Economic Anger vs. Regime Survival

It’s ironic that Iran’s economic struggles—high inflation, unemployment, and currency collapse—spark protests but haven’t led to regime collapse. The government maintains control through subsidies, patronage, and repression, keeping key groups loyal.

Moreover, elite insiders benefit from the current system. Their wealth and influence make them invested in maintaining the status quo rather than risking political change.

International Pressure Isn’t Enough

Sanctions and international criticism have added pressure, but they often strengthen the government’s narrative. Authorities blame “foreign enemies” for unrest, using nationalism to rally support.

Global players are also cautious. Iran’s oil, regional influence, and nuclear negotiations make countries hesitant to intervene directly. This limits the ability of external pressure to create rapid regime change.

Why the Protests Haven’t Succeeded…Yet

The failure of these protests isn’t because Iranians lack courage or resolve. It’s because the system is structurally strong, institutionally resilient, and strategically entrenched.

For real change to happen, several unlikely factors would need to align:

Key defections within the security forces

A unified, credible opposition leadership

Sustained international pressure that isolates the clerical elite

Until then, protests may continue to raise awareness, inspire younger generations, and push for gradual reform—but they are unlikely to bring immediate toppling of Iran’s clerical rulers.

Bottom line: Iran’s protests are historic, passionate, and politically significant, but the system is built to withstand waves of unrest. Change may come slowly, but it will require more than demonstrations—it will need strategic coordination, internal cracks, and long-term pressure from both inside and outside the country.