Trump, Pence and the Republican Chance

In the Trump era, little is more inappropriate, but before people who think the man is a disastrous president secretly cheer at the news of Trump's corona infection, they would do well to review the scenarios of this development 32 days before the election. It leads to somewhat morbid reflections, such as the observation that Trump's various - when it comes to that - turn out badly for the Democrats.

Obviously, we cannot foresee how sick Trump is going to get, but should he be unable to rule, according to the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, he can temporarily transfer his powers to Vice President Mike Pence, who will then become acting president. President Reagan did so in 1985 when he was put under general anesthesia for bowel surgery. Should Trump become so sick that he can no longer rule but has not transferred his power, presidential power will automatically pass to Pence. If Trump dies, Pence becomes president. To complete the story, should both Trump and Pence be eliminated, the presidency will go to Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Democrate Nancy Pelosi. That thought will give Republicans sleepless nights.

If Trump were to die before November 3, the Republican Party could nominate someone as a candidate. It would be strange if it weren't for the then incumbent president, Mike Pence. The ballots have already been printed, there has even been a vote and Pence is on them. Should Pence win on Nov. 3, the Republican electors are unlikely to drop him for another Republican, although they theoretically have that option. Should Trump-Pence lose, of course it doesn't matter anymore.

Trump's campaign is on hold for at least fourteen days. He won't be able to hold mass meetings - for people without masks - as he likes to do. While The White House will no doubt suggest that campaigning is inappropriate now, no one will care. Democrats not because they have little leniency with this Republican Party, Republicans not because they want to keep the senate. The October 15 debate seems to have been canceled, which given the experience of the first debate, the unpleasant confrontation of two elderly people, will be a relief for many, even many Republicans.

Why can all this turn out really badly for the Democrats? That has everything to do with Mike Pence. Pence, a former Indiana governor, has proven himself a loyal Trump supporter. He is an evangelical Christian, so strict in teaching that he does not dine with a woman who is not his. That background was the reason he was elected by Trump in 2016. Over the past four years, Pence has often had to grumble when Trump wrote over again, but he did so boldly, too loyal according to some.

In short, Pence is a trustworthy, traditional conservative, someone who, like the entire Republican Party, has supported the president in all circumstances. But many voters in the middle who would no longer vote for Trump under any circumstances, and many never-Trumpers, Republicans who reject Trump, would vote for Pence without difficulty. It would be a godsend to save the Republican Party from Trumpism and get it back into normal conservative waters.

That is where the great danger lies for the Democrats, who have mainly presented themselves as the alternative to a president without a moral compass. Anything better than Trump! Joe Biden, a decent, cultured man long past his best-before date, is proof of that. 77-year-old Biden is nowhere near as sharp as he once was (because Trump continued to rage on Tuesday, it was less visible that Biden had little to offer, even though he had no senior citizen moments). He is leading a party much younger and much more progressive than himself. In other words, the Democrats chose Biden not out of love but out of expediency, as the best asset against the vulgar president. The moment the choice is not Biden-Trump but Biden-Pence, everything suddenly looks very different.

Then the Democrats will have a candidate who, although empathetic and sympathetic, does not generate enthusiasm. And an entirely reasonable opponent. Under those circumstances, chances are that the Republicans will keep the White House with Mike Pence, with whom they can live very well. Republicans love power and will use this opportunity to maintain it. Everything revolves around the turnout on November 3. Even without Trump, Mike Pence can motivate and cheat his supporters: vote as if you are voting for Donald Trump! At the same time, he reassures the anti-Trump people. And then we don't even take into account the sympathy factor in the event of Trump's death. Imagine a state funeral, take away, November 2.

The Democrats then have the task of making it clear that Pence is an extension of Donald Trump, that a choice for him would be a choice to continue for four years of Trump. Can Biden get everyone to the polls if Donald Trump is not the stake but Mike Pence? Enough cause for concern. And also reason to pay extra attention to the debate between the vice presidential candidates, which is scheduled for Wednesday 7 October. It is up to Kamala Harris to make it clear that Mike Pence is nothing more than an acolyte of Donald Trump and that she does indeed represent the future of the Democrats (all the more so if it turned out that Trump also infected Biden in the debate).

Much will depend, of course, on how Trump's corona develops. If he only tested positive but doesn't get sick or doesn't get seriously ill, then little will change. If he falls very ill, he can take advantage of the experience gained in the medical field earlier this year: his chances of survival are greater than if he had fallen ill in March. If he dies before November 3, all of the above will play. What is certain is that in the most important presidential elections ever, everything is again uncertain.