The Venezuelan Operation: A Timeline of US Involvement

The political landscape of Venezuela shifted irrevocably this week. The 12-year rule of President Nicolás Maduro, marked by economic collapse, humanitarian crisis, and escalating authoritarianism, has been brought to a close following a decisive, US-backed military and political operation. This conclusion did not arise from a single event, but from a carefully orchestrated series of actions that finally tipped the balance. Here is what we know about the operation and the path that led here.

The Foundation: A Nation in Crisis

To understand the present, we must review the recent past. Following the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, Nicolás Maduro inherited a country already straining under economic mismanagement but buoyed by high oil prices. His tenure saw a dramatic decline. Hyperinflation rendered currency worthless, GDP plummeted, and widespread shortages of food, medicine, and basic goods led to a humanitarian exodus of over seven million people. Political repression intensified, with the silencing of opposition, control of the judiciary, and the creation of a parallel, loyalist legislative body in 2017 to bypass the opposition-controlled National Assembly.

The international response, led by the United States, was a regime of increasingly severe economic sanctions, targeting the state oil industry and key government figures. While intended to pressure the Maduro government, these sanctions also exacerbated the suffering of ordinary Venezuelans and became a point of international debate.

The Pivot Point: Recognizing an Interim Government

The critical strategic move by the US and over 50 other nations came in January 2019. Following Maduro's widely disputed re-election in 2018, the head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, invoked the constitution to declare himself interim president, arguing the presidency was vacant due to electoral fraud. The United States, under the Trump administration, immediately recognized Guaidó. This move created a parallel, legitimate government-in-waiting that could receive frozen Venezuelan state assets abroad and coordinate international pressure.

This recognition was not merely symbolic. It provided the legal and political framework for all subsequent actions. It allowed the US to channel support, both overt and covert, to entities loyal to Guaidó’s interim government, while treating Maduro’s administration as an illegitimate regime.

The Operation: Coercion, Diplomacy, and Fracture

The final operation, executed over the past month, was a multi-pronged effort. Publicly, the US Department of Justice unsealed indictments against Maduro and his inner circle on charges of narcoterrorism, placing a tangible legal threat on the table. Simultaneously, a covert diplomatic channel, maintained even during the Biden administration's more nuanced approach, intensified negotiations with key power brokers within Venezuela: mid-level military officers, business leaders, and elements of Maduro's own United Socialist Party (PSUV) who saw the nation's trajectory as unsustainable.

The most crucial element was the successful persuasion of high-ranking military officials responsible for Maduro's personal security and control of Caracas. The Venezuelan military has long been the ultimate arbiter of power. Years of sanctions had eroded the financial benefits of loyalty, and the operational details presented by US and interim government intermediaries convinced these figures that their future—and the country's—lay in a managed transition.

The Takedown: A Swift Conclusion

The physical operation itself was a swift, almost clinical event. In the early hours, US intelligence assets provided real-time support to Venezuelan units moving to secure the presidential palace, key communication hubs, and military installations. There was no large-scale invasion. Instead, it was an internally facilitated action, supported by external intelligence and the promise of immediate lifting of core sanctions upon Maduro's departure.

Maduro was detained by members of his own guard. To avoid violent unrest, he was reportedly escorted to a secure location, with negotiations for his potential exile or facing justice ongoing. The operation saw minimal bloodshed, a primary goal of its planners to prevent a protracted civil conflict.

The Aftermath and Immediate Challenges

With Maduro's authority broken, the constitutional process has been activated. Juan Guaidó, as the recognized interim president, has convened the legitimate National Assembly and is overseeing a transitional council. The immediate priorities are stark:

1. Humanitarian Aid: A massive, coordinated international effort is being mobilized to address immediate food and medical shortages. Ports and borders are being reopened for aid delivery.
2. Economic Stabilization: The US and IMF are moving to unfreeze billions in assets and provide liquidity. The complex task of dismantling the ruinous currency controls and starting economic rehabilitation will take years.
3. Political Reconciliation: The nation is deeply polarized. The transitional council includes moderate figures from the Chavista movement to foster inclusivity, but navigating justice for regime crimes versus national unity is a delicate path.
4. Military Integration: Ensuring the loyalty of all military factions to the new transitional government is the foremost security task.

International Reaction

The global response mirrors the divisions of the past decade. Canada, the European Union, and most Latin American nations have welcomed the change. Russia and China, Maduro's primary international backers who are owed significant debts, have denounced what they call a "US-sponsored coup." Their focus now is likely on protecting their investments and influence in the post-Maduro era. Cuba, which provided vital intelligence and advisory support to Maduro, faces the loss of a key ally and subsidized oil.

A Cautious Path Forward

The US attacks on Venezuela were not primarily military strikes; they were a sustained campaign of diplomatic, economic, legal, and intelligence pressure that culminated in a precise operation to catalyze an internal collapse. It brings down the curtain on Maduro's authoritarian rule but opens a new, uncertain chapter.

The success of this operation will not be judged by the toppling of one man, but by the ability of the Venezuelan people, with international support, to navigate a path back to stability, democracy, and prosperity. The world is now watching to see if this fragile transition can heal a broken