The End of the World As We Know It: Is the Rules-Based Order Finished?

The phrase “rules-based order” has long been a central tenet of the international system that has governed the world since the end of World War II. After nearly a century of diplomacy, international agreements, and cooperation, the rules-based order helped maintain peace, stability, and cooperation among nations. But with recent global shifts, the question arises: Is the rules-based order finished?

The concept of a rules-based order has been defined as a system where international relations are governed by a set of agreed-upon norms, treaties, and institutions. This system is often associated with global governance structures such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It was designed to ensure that nations adhered to common norms in areas such as human rights, trade, and security. However, recent global developments seem to be undermining this once-sturdy framework.

From rising geopolitical tensions to challenges posed by non-state actors, to doubts about the effectiveness of international institutions, we are seeing cracks in the edifice that has long upheld global stability. In this article, we’ll explore what the rules-based order is, why it's under threat, and what the consequences might be for the future of international relations.

What Is the Rules-Based Order?

Before discussing the potential decline of the rules-based order, it’s important to define what it entails. At its core, the rules-based order is a system of international governance that emphasizes cooperation and the peaceful resolution of disputes through agreed norms, laws, and institutions.

This order is grounded in a set of principles that were solidified after the Second World War, when the United Nations and other international organizations were created to foster diplomacy, human rights, and trade. Over the decades, countries joined these frameworks, agreeing to resolve disputes diplomatically rather than through military or economic force.

Key elements of this order include:

International law and agreements: Treaties that define how countries interact, such as trade agreements, environmental pacts, and military alliances.

Multilateralism: The practice of resolving issues through international institutions and involving multiple countries.

Norms and values: Respect for human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.

Collective security: Protection of smaller countries from aggression, supported by international coalitions such as NATO.

The system is far from perfect, but it has largely ensured that wars between major powers have been avoided and that cooperation on issues like climate change, trade, and global health is possible.

Rising Challenges: What Is Undermining the System?

Despite the benefits of the rules-based order, multiple forces are now threatening its stability. From populist movements to rising authoritarianism, these challenges could lead to a shift in how nations interact with each other. The primary concerns include:

1. Geopolitical Tensions

Tensions between global powers are reaching levels not seen since the Cold War. The U.S.-China rivalry, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and military confrontations in the South China Sea are all examples of how traditional norms of diplomacy and negotiation are being sidelined in favor of direct competition and military force.

China’s growing influence, in particular, has challenged the rules-based order. Beijing has often rejected the idea of international norms in favor of asserting its own interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Similarly, Russia's actions in Ukraine have demonstrated a blatant disregard for the sovereignty of neighboring states and international law. Both of these countries, in different ways, have questioned the legitimacy of global institutions and the ability of the international community to hold them accountable.

2. Erosion of Multilateralism

In recent years, multilateral institutions—like the United Nations, WTO, and International Criminal Court (ICC)—have faced increasing criticism for their perceived ineffectiveness in addressing major global issues. Many countries, especially rising powers such as China and India, argue that these institutions are outdated and often fail to reflect the changing balance of power in the world.

Moreover, unilateral actions by global powers have become more common. The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the Trump administration’s skepticism of multilateral organizations, and Brexit have all contributed to a sense that cooperative internationalism is losing its appeal. Without multilateral solutions, countries may resort to solving problems in isolation, leading to a more fragmented global system.

3. Rising Nationalism and Populism

The rise of nationalist and populist movements in countries like the United States, Brazil, and Hungary has led to a growing rejection of international cooperation. Leaders like Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, and Viktor Orbán have called into question the benefits of international cooperation, arguing that national sovereignty should take precedence over global agreements.

This shift toward unilateralism—along with the rise of economic protectionism and anti-globalization rhetoric—undermines the very foundations of the rules-based order, which relies on trust, cooperation, and respect for international norms.

4. Climate Change and Global Challenges

The increasing urgency of issues like climate change, pandemics, and global inequality presents new challenges for the rules-based order. While global cooperation has been essential in addressing these issues, countries are struggling to align their national interests with global solutions.

For example, the Paris Agreement on climate change has been hampered by climate denial in certain countries, while the COVID-19 pandemic exposed deep divisions in how countries manage global public health threats. The failure to tackle these transnational challenges in a unified manner only highlights the fractures within the current international system.

The Consequences: What Happens If the Rules-Based Order Collapses?

If the rules-based order is indeed coming to an end, the consequences for global peace and prosperity could be dire. The breakdown of international norms could lead to:

1. Increased Conflict

Without a shared framework for resolving disputes, countries may resort to force to settle differences. Military conflicts, trade wars, and territorial disputes could become more frequent, leading to instability in various regions of the world.

2. Weakened Global Cooperation

As the multilateral system weakens, global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and economic crises will become even harder to tackle. Countries may act in their own self-interest, disregarding the collective good.

3. A Shift Toward Authoritarianism

If the rules-based order collapses, authoritarian regimes may become more emboldened. Without international checks on their behavior, these regimes could expand their influence, suppress dissent, and undermine democratic values.

4. Economic Fragmentation

The end of the rules-based order could lead to the fragmentation of global markets, with countries imposing trade barriers, tariffs, and restrictions on foreign investments. This would make it harder for businesses to operate globally and could slow economic growth.

Is the Rules-Based Order Finished?

While it’s clear that the rules-based order is under increasing strain, it may not be finished—at least not yet. The current global situation calls for reform and reinvigoration, not necessarily an end. In response to growing threats, countries must revitalize international institutions and create new frameworks that reflect the realities of today’s world. The future of global governance will depend on collaboration, reform, and the willingness to uphold the shared values that have kept the world relatively stable for the past several decades.

The question, then, is not whether the rules-based order is finished, but whether nations can come together to adapt it for the 21st century. The answer to that will shape the future of global cooperation—and the world as we know it.