Is the U.S. Heading for Civil War?
Rising political violence causing concerns
Things are looking bleak right now.
Images coming out of Minneapolis look like they’ve been taken from a battlefield.
Everyday citizens walking through clouds of tear gas, some armed with homemade shields, gather to protest and prevent more ICE activity.
Whole sections of downtown districts have turned to triage centers.
Two people have already been shot and killed by federal agents. Resistance to federal agents occupying American cities grows each day. Protests are swelling even in the clutches of winter’s frozen grip.
People worry about martial law, and the president invoking the Insurrection act and the possibility of U.S. military personnel being used against American citizens.
Is the United States heading for Civil War?
Let’s discuss the possibility.
Each day tensions rise.
The conflicts in Minneapolis and other cities, constant disregard for social structure, and a clear erosion in any form of trust in civic institutions.
Even as I type this the federal government is prepping for another shutdown.
With economic inequality growing exponentially, the federal government stopping social programs again will only whet the appetite of rebellion.
This occurring with mounting evidence of election scandals, along with people discovering true depravity of the federal overloads as certain files come out, means that more people are getting fed up with the current situation.
What is a Civil War?
Most people know that there was a Civil War in American history but what must happen in order for a conflict to be considered a Civil War?
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
“Modern scholarship defines a civil war as a state-based armed conflict between a government and an internal opposition group that results in 1,000 battlefield-related deaths. This cumulative death toll separates civil war from other forms of political violence like terrorism. Furthermore, there needs to be at least some proportion of deaths from both sides of the conflict, or it isn’t a civil war.”
The opposing force must be organized. The random conflicts between groups of protestors and federal agents are not a cohesive enough resistance to constitute a Civil War. The tragic murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti would be considered political violence but not the beginnings of a revolutionary action or a Civil War yet.
The CSIS does say that factors that lead to a civil war include, economic hardship, weak governmental response to crises, and a cycle of violence with the state “repress citizens, leading to dissent and even armed opposition.”
Why Do Some Americans Think We are Heading This Way?
Growing political violence is making some people worry about a possible civil war.
It does not help that the current president continually fan the flames of conflict rather than institute any kind of reconciliation.
Last year, a survey showed that a majority of Americans believe that a civil war is possible in the next ten years.
Donald Trump has done little to quench this worry.
“Trump’s deployment of the military at home, combined with his vow to suppress “the enemy within” while his domestic advisor, Stephen Miller labels the Democratic Party a domestic extremist organization, can easily be seen as setting the stage for an authoritarian takeover.”
Growing political violence makes people think that a conflict between the federal government and its citizens is coming.
Last year threats against lawmakers reached an all time high. There was also the murder of two Minnesota lawmakers last year.
These threats against lawmakers and judges make them less likely to try and stop the President and his cronies allowing him to consolidate more power.
But as people see those in power failing to impede a hostile takeover of the United States they start feeling as though they must take matters into their own hands.
We can see this now in Minnesota. Huge protests fill the streets as they use every means necessary to remove the occupying forces terrorizing their neighbors.
How do the conditions today compare to the American Civil War?
Historian Nina Silber, a professor of history and American Studies at Boston University, as well as the president of the Society of Civil War Historians, shed some light on whether another civil war is likely.
She said that the rising political violence and willingness to use violence is tragic but not the rise of a civil war.
She explains that the main difference is how the opposing forces are divided.
“The geographic divide today is less clear-cut, less along solidly sectional lines.”
The political differences do not have such harsh borders, with different ideologies occurring within the same state, city, and even neighborhood.
In 1860, the presidential election and political parties became completely sectionalized and allowed the opposing forces to be much more organized.
This situation also does not have the same singular issue that divides the belligerents as did slavery in 1860.
Today there are a host of issues including economic and social ones that have varying degrees of fervor.
Ice activity in cities is one of the main ones, but there is also economic disparity, an erosion of civil rights, as well as concern for distrust of the federal government.
Most experts seem to agree that while political violence is increasing, and will likely get worse, the United States will not likely fall into a second civil war.
The U.S. will likely be involved in a “Cold Civil War” in which the battles are not fought on battlefields but ideological ones, and with pockets of intense political violence not a large scale “hot” war with active military involvement.
However, at this point anything is possible.
About the Creator
Matthew Donnellon
Twitter: m_donnellon
Instagram: msdonnellonwrites
Keep reading
More stories from Matthew Donnellon and writers in The Swamp and other communities.
Trump Administration Latest: Partial Government Shutdown to Continue Until at Least Tuesday
The United States federal government has entered a partial shutdown that is now expected to last at least through Tuesday, as lawmakers in Congress remain deadlocked over funding and policy conditions tied to a broad spending package. Despite negotiations and bipartisan efforts, key disagreements — particularly over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and immigration enforcement funding — have prevented a final funding bill from clearing both chambers of Congress. � BERNAMA +1 This shutdown, while shorter and narrower than the historic one in 2025, nonetheless reveals deep political divisions inside the U.S. government — divisions that may shape American politics and public services well beyond the next few days. How We Got Here: The Deadline and the Funding Gap On Friday, January 30, 2026, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan government funding deal aimed at keeping most federal agencies operating through the fall and extending funding for DHS for two weeks while negotiators debate potential changes to immigration enforcement policy. That Senate vote was 71–29 in favor of the package. � euronews However, because the Senate’s version of the legislation differed from what the House of Representatives had previously passed — and because the House was not in session in time — the House did not vote on the bill before funding expired at midnight Saturday. As a result, funding for several government agencies lapsed and a partial shutdown began. � Wikipedia House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has repeatedly expressed confidence that the shutdown will end by Tuesday, when the chamber is scheduled to resume work and could take up the Senate bill or a revised version thereof. But as of the latest reporting, no final vote has yet been scheduled, meaning the shutdown will extend into early next week. � The Washington Post +1 What’s in the Senate Funding Deal — and Why It Didn’t Pass Immediately The Senate’s funding deal was designed as a stopgap measure to avert a prolonged shutdown: It would fund most of the federal government — including major departments such as Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and HUD — through the rest of fiscal year 2026. It carves out DHS funding and extends it only for two additional weeks, a short period intended to allow more time for negotiation over reforms to the agency’s immigration enforcement practices. � euronews The focus on DHS arose after controversial immigration enforcement operations, including shootings by federal agents in Minneapolis that killed two U.S. citizens, spurred intense debate over how agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) operate. � CiberCuba Despite the Senate majority backing the measure, the House — which holds a narrow Republican majority — faced internal and cross-party resistance. Some conservative Republicans and House Democrats objected to parts of the plan, particularly the short DHS extension without tougher oversight. As a result, funding lapsed before the House could act. � New York Post Why the Shutdown Continues Until Tuesday Even though funding ran out, lawmakers hope the shutdown will be relatively short. Here’s why it’s expected to stretch into Tuesday: Timing of the House session: The House was in recess over the weekend and did not return until Monday, meaning a vote could not be held in time to prevent the initial lapse. � Reuters Procedural hurdles: Speaker Johnson has indicated that procedural rules in the House — especially around a narrow Republican majority and some internal disagreement — mean the funding package may not be ready for a floor vote until Tuesday at the earliest. � euronews Democratic demands: House Democrats have stated they will not simply “lend votes” to pass the deal unless certain reforms — especially on DHS and immigration enforcement — are addressed in the legislation. � Axios Taken together, these factors make a reopening of government early in the week more likely than over the weekend. But as with many shutdowns in recent U.S. history, the exact end time remains uncertain until a final vote is cast and the president signs the funding bill. Which Parts of Government Are Affected? In a partial shutdown, not all federal functions halt. According to federal guidelines: Likely Affected Agencies The current shutdown affects agencies that had not been fully funded when appropriations expired — a list that includes departments like: State Treasury Defense (certain non-essential functions) Transportation Housing and Urban Development Health and Human Services Labor Education Homeland Security beyond the short extension status � Wikipedia Essential Services That Continue Some agencies and functions continue to operate under existing law, including: Veterans Affairs programs Medicare and Social Security benefits Select operations at Commerce, Justice, and Energy Departments Certain military and defense activities Independent agencies like NASA and the National Science Foundation � Wikipedia Federal workers and contractors in “essential” roles may be required to continue working without pay until funding is restored. Who Works Without Pay — And Who Is Furloughed? Under typical shutdown rules, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issues guidance to agencies: Excepted employees (essential): Workers whose functions are essential to protect life and property continue to work without pay. Non-excepted employees: Workers whose duties are not deemed essential may be furloughed — placed on temporary unpaid leave — until funding is restored. � CiberCuba This mix of continuing operations and furloughs creates uncertainty for millions of federal workers and contractors, though it’s worth noting that many benefits and services — such as Social Security and mail delivery — continue despite a lapse in funding. Political Dynamics: Republican Unity and Democratic Demands Republican Strategy Speaker Johnson and House Republicans are trying to navigate a narrow majority while balancing internal factions. Johnson has signaled confidence that he can secure enough Republican votes to pass the funding package by Tuesday — even if some conservative members have qualms about parts of the Senate deal. � Reuters Johnson has framed the strategy as working with President Trump’s request to scale back certain controversial elements of immigration enforcement, while preserving core funding priorities for Republican lawmakers. � Axios Democratic Stance House Democrats, led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have resisted supporting the funding package unless it includes meaningful reforms to DHS and ICE, such as: Mandatory body cameras for immigration officers Visible identification requirements Limits on warrantless enforcement actions Independent oversight of controversial practices � euronews Democrats argue these reforms stem from concerns over civil liberties and the recent deaths during federal operations in Minneapolis. They say funding the agency without reform would endorse current policies they find troubling. � CiberCuba Trump Administration’s Position President Donald Trump has backed the Senate-approved funding deal and urged Congress to act quickly to end the shutdown. According to reporting, Trump agreed to a strategy focused on isolating the Homeland Security funding piece to allow negotiations over immigration policy to proceed separately, rather than letting the entire government’s funding hinge on the debate. � euronews The White House has also signaled support for bipartisan cooperation on appropriations, even as public disagreements over policy demands persist. What It Means for the Public and Federal Services Even short shutdowns can have measurable impacts: Economic Effects Markets may respond negatively to uncertainty over government funding, especially if shutdown news collides with other economic reports or weak confidence data. In the past, prolonged shutdowns have weighed on GDP growth and consumer sentiment. � CiberCuba Federal Workers Millions of federal employees may face delayed paychecks or uncertainty about their work schedules. Even if a shutdown ends quickly, retroactive pay typically requires separate legislative approval. Public Services Services tied to funded agencies could see disruptions — for example: IRS processing delays National Parks closures or limited access Reduced permitting and licensing services However, many core benefits remain unaffected. � Wikipedia A Short Shutdown in a Long Trend While the current partial shutdown is expected to be brief — lasting only until at least Tuesday — it is part of a broader trend of repeated funding stalemates in recent years. Earlier in the 2025 fiscal cycle, the U.S. experienced a record-long 43-day shutdown, illustrating how challenging bipartisan agreement has become. � fr.wikipedia.org Unlike that longer closure, this recent shutdown affects a narrower slice of government operations and may not generate as many dramatic service interruptions. But even short shutdowns underscore the fragility of U.S. budget politics and the difficulty of reaching consensus on complex policy priorities. What Happens Next: Road to Tuesday With lawmakers back in session this week, attention now turns to the House floor vote on the Senate-approved funding package or a modified version of it. If passed, the bill would immediately restore funding to shuttered agencies and likely include reconciliation over DHS reforms in the coming two weeks. If the House fails to pass the measure, lawmakers face a choice of further delaying, rewriting parts of the deal, or negotiating new terms — each carrying political risk and potential public frustration. Conclusion: Shutdown by Deadline, Solution in Sight The partial government shutdown that began over the weekend is now expected to continue until at least Tuesday, as House leaders work to bring a funding package to the floor, navigate internal party disagreements, and respond to Democratic demands for policy reforms tied to immigration enforcement. Majority and minority leaders have described the impasse as a matter of negotiation that could soon be resolved, but for now, federal agencies continue under a funding lapse, and workers and the public wait for Congressional action. Whether the shutdown will be brief or stretch longer depends on negotiations this week and the willingness of lawmakers to compromise — a test of U.S. governing institutions amid a deeply polarized political climate.
By Zahid Hussaina day ago in The Swamp
It’s 2 Miles Deep, Close to a Volcano, the Size of 233 Soccer Fields and Home to a Whopping 20,000 Creatures
Beneath the ocean’s surface lies a world so alien it could be mistaken for science fiction. Imagine a region two miles deep, located near an underwater volcano, stretching across an area the size of 233 soccer fields, and harboring over 20,000 unique creatures — many of them never seen before by humans. This is not just a fantasy; it is the reality of a recently explored deep-sea ecosystem that is rewriting what we know about life in extreme environments.
By Sajida Sikandara day ago in The Swamp
Dead and Wearing Green
She was wearing that green dress when I first saw her, five years ago to the day. Flowing meadow fabric draped over long legs, thick auburn hair flowing down her back. That smile. Of course, she is still beautiful now. But now she is no longer alive.
By Karen Cave6 days ago in Fiction
Comments
There are no comments for this story
Be the first to respond and start the conversation.