How Real Is Donald Trump’s 2024 Victory If His Approval Is Falling in States He Won?

When Donald J. Trump secured a second term in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, his path to victory crossed more than 30 states. But recent polling suggests that the mandate he won might already be eroding — even in many of those states he carried last year.

New data shows that Trump’s approval rating is now negative in a significant portion of the states he won in 2024. In at least 20 of those states, his approval is underwater. Among those with the steepest decline are key battlegrounds whose results proved decisive in the last election. That reality has ignited a broader debate over just how stable his support really is as he begins his first full year back in office.

A shifting map of approval

The latest approval-rating maps show that in several states Trump won in 2024, more voters now disapprove of his presidency than approve. In traditional swing states — states that helped tip the electoral balance — the drop in support is especially visible. Factors such as economic anxiety, controversies over immigration and policy implementation, and unmet expectations have contributed to a growing sense of disillusionment among voters.

Even beyond swing states, some more reliably Republican-leaning states that backed Trump in 2024 don’t show him as uniformly popular as might have been expected. Although there remain states where his approval still hovers above water, the overall trend points to a noticeable erosion of enthusiasm.

What this means for his political mandate

This decline in approval among voters in states that once handed Trump victory raises questions about the strength and durability of his coalition. A narrow Electoral College win can mask underlying fractures — especially if many of those voters now express dissatisfaction with his performance.

For Congress and future legislative efforts, this trend could signal trouble. Laws and policies backed by the administration might face resistance not only from the opposing political side but also from constituents in states that ostensibly backed Trump. It may become harder to rely on those states as stable pillars of support in 2026 and beyond.

Moreover, the apparent shift in public sentiment could influence voter turnout and engagement in upcoming elections — both midterms and local races. If disillusionment deepens, Republican candidates may struggle to motivate the coalition that carried Trump to victory.

Broader implications: legitimacy, public mood, and political volatility

Beyond the impending legislative fights and electoral strategies, the dip in approval raises deeper questions about legitimacy and public mood. A leader whose majority of voters in key states no longer approve of his performance risks losing not only political leverage but also moral authority.

This could translate into polarized public discourse, increased protest activity, and a more volatile political climate. In polarized societies, such disconnects between electoral outcomes and public approval often fuel greater social tension.

At the same time, diminished popular support might embolden opposition movements or rival factions within the broader political coalition. Intra-party pressure could mount if party members become concerned that backing Trump might alienate voters in competitive regions.

What to watch going into 2026

As we move into 2026, several developments will be important to monitor:

Midterm election outcomes: State-level races will test whether Trump's dipped approval translates into losses for candidates aligned with him.

Policy performance: The administration’s handling of economic, immigration, and social issues will likely shape whether voters’ dissatisfaction deepens or rebounds.

Messaging strategy: To regain support, Trump and his team may need to adjust their tone or priorities to appeal to voters who’ve grown disenchanted.

Voter turnout: Whether disillusionment reduces engagement — or instead mobilizes voters — will affect how future elections unfold.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s second-term victory carried the promise of renewed mandate. Yet the shift in public sentiment — evident from approval ratings dropping below water in many of the states he won — suggests that his grip on power may already be loosening. The coming months will test whether this reflects a temporary dip, a deeper unraveling of his coalition, or a realignment of the American political landscape.