Donald Trump’s 100 Days in the Oval Office

As Donald Trump marks his 100th day in office during his second presidential term, the global economy braces for the ripple effects of his aggressive trade policies and domestic reforms. While supporters hail his focus on “America First” populism, critics warn that his tariff-driven agenda, paired with sweeping immigration crackdowns and fiscal austerity, risks plunging the U.S. into a self-inflicted recession. This analysis dissects the early impacts of Trump’s policies, their geopolitical ramifications, and the mounting concerns among economists.

Economic Context: A Fragile Recovery Meets Populist Disruption

The U.S. economy entered 2025 amid a tepid recovery from post-pandemic volatility, with inflation cooling but interest rates still elevated. Consumer confidence had stabilized, yet manufacturing output remained sluggish, and global supply chains were still recovering from years of disruption. Into this landscape, President Trump reactivated his signature playbook: slashing regulations, imposing tariffs, and framing economic nationalism as a cure-all for systemic weaknesses.

The president wasted no time, signing 26 executive orders within his first days—including plans to revive the disbanded Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), dismantle environmental protections, and pardon thousands of January 6 rioters.

These moves signaled a return to ideological combat, prioritizing political loyalty over institutional stability. But it was his approach to trade and immigration that immediately drew alarm bells.

Tariff Policies: Protectionism or Economic Sabotage?

Central to Trump’s economic strategy is a revival of his 2017–2020 trade war tactics, targeting China, Mexico, and the European Union with broad-based tariffs. In March 2025, he announced a new 60% duty on Chinese imports, arguing it would “protect American workers” and punish Beijing for alleged currency manipulation.

He also threatened to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on allies who fail to meet unspecified defense spending targets—a pledge later postponed amid fears of market chaos.

While protectionist rhetoric resonates with his base, economists warn of unintended consequences. Tariffs raise costs for consumers and businesses reliant on imported goods, squeezing households already grappling with stagnant wages. For instance, a 2025 study by the Peterson Institute estimated that Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs alone could cost the U.S. economy $45 billion annually, draining GDP growth by 0.3%. Worse, retaliatory measures from trading partners—such as China’s recent ban on rare earth mineral exports to U.S. firms—threaten to ignite a full-scale trade war, destabilizing global markets .

“The assumption that tariffs create jobs is a myth,” argues Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. “They shift employment from export-oriented sectors to protected ones, but the net effect is always negative due to higher prices and reduced competitiveness.”

Immigration Crackdowns: Labor Shortages Loom

Another pillar of Trump’s agenda is mass deportation, with plans to expel over 15 million undocumented immigrants—a population deeply embedded in agriculture, construction, and service industries. While the administration frames this as a security necessity, the Council of Economic Advisers under Biden previously warned that removing 10 million workers could shrink the U.S. labor force by 5%, triggering a $1.2 trillion loss in GDP over a decade .

The immediate fallout is already visible. In rural Midwest states, dairy farms report milk being dumped due to a lack of laborers, while trucking companies face delays at border checkpoints swamped by heightened inspections .

Even tech firms, reliant on H-1B visas, have seen R&D pipelines stall amid stricter immigration rules.

“This isn’t just about compassion—it’s about arithmetic,” says economist Laura Tyson. “Deporting millions won’t fix infrastructure; it’ll break it.”

Fiscal Austerity: Cutting Now, Paying Later?

Trump’s promise to slash federal spending by 25%—including major reductions to Medicaid, education grants, and climate-related programs—has drawn sharp criticism. While deficit hawks praise the move as fiscally responsible, Keynesian analysts argue that withdrawing stimulus during a fragile recovery could trigger a contraction.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, estimates that Trump’s cuts could save $800 billion annually. However, Moody’s Analytics predicts that such austerity would reduce GDP growth by 0.8% in 2026, pushing unemployment above 6%. Small businesses, already strained by rising borrowing costs, may face collapse if government contracts dry up.

Global Reactions: Allies Abandon Ship?

Internationally, Trump’s policies have reignited distrust. The EU accused Washington of hypocrisy after Biden-era commitments to multilateralism, while Mexico’s president likened the tariffs to “economic warfare.” Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, fear becoming collateral damage in a Sino-American standoff.

Even Ukraine’s allies have grown wary. Trump’s delay in approving military aid—coupled with his dismissive remarks about NATO—has emboldened Putin, who recently declared that “Western unity is a mirage.” Analysts note that Kyiv’s reliance on U.S. weapons makes it vulnerable to Trump’s transactional diplomacy .

Political Strategy: Polarization Over Policy

Trump’s 100-day agenda mirrors his 2017 playbook, prioritizing symbolic victories over legislative nuance. By pardoning most January 6 defendants and attacking federal agencies like the IRS, he has galvanized his base but alienated moderates. Congressional gridlock looms, with Republicans hesitant to endorse extreme budget cuts and Democrats vowing obstruction.

This polarization undermines crisis preparedness. With midterm elections approaching, bipartisan cooperation on issues like AI regulation or pandemic preparedness seems unlikely. As one Senate aide put it, “We’re not governing—we’re bracing for the next Twitter storm.”

Recession Risk: A Ticking Time Bomb

Most alarming is the Federal Reserve’s limited firepower to counteract a downturn. With interest rates already near 5%, traditional tools like quantitative easing are constrained. If Trump’s policies trigger stagflation—a mix of high inflation and stagnation—the Fed may face impossible choices: raise rates further, crushing growth, or let price pressures spiral.

Historical parallels abound. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs worsened the Great Depression by choking global trade. Similarly, Japan’s deflationary spiral began in the 1990s after policymakers ignored structural reforms. Unless Trump adjusts course, the U.S. risks joining their ranks.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

Donald Trump’s 100 days reflect a presidency doubling down on confrontation—be it with adversaries, allies, or economic fundamentals. While his tariffs and immigration bans offer short-term political wins, they risk long-term instability. The path forward demands a recalibration: targeted industrial policy, strategic alliances, and investments in automation to offset labor shortages.

As markets grow jittery and unemployment tick upward, the question isn’t whether Trump’s policies will cause a recession—it’s how severe it will be. Investors, voters, and world leaders alike now await the next chapter in America’s gamble with populist economics.