The next crisis is already here

Welcome back to our weekly course series, The Winning Entrepreneur: Your Weekly Guide to Success, a program designed for ambitious entrepreneurs and people who want to turn their ideas into successful businesses. Last week, we talked about the courage to change and how to reinvent your business in the digital age. Today, we talk about the crisis and why 90% of companies aren't ready for it.

In an era of increasing geopolitical instability and complexity, the ability to manage crises and ensure business continuity has become a core competency for every organization. Today's global landscape presents unprecedented challenges that require a structured and proactive approach to risk management.

The current context: a world in perpetual crisis

The global economic fabric is riddled with geopolitical tensions that have direct repercussions on global business. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted the fragility of supply chains and the volatility of energy markets. The rise of populist movements in key nations such as Germany, France and the United States introduces further elements of uncertainty into the international regulatory and trade framework.

These factors, combined with accelerating climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, create an operating environment where resilience is no longer an option, but a strategic necessity. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated how seemingly unlikely events can quickly escalate into systemic crises with devastating effects on local economies.

The New Frontier of Technological Risks

Technological evolution, while offering unprecedented opportunities, introduces new vulnerabilities. Cyberattacks, digital disruptions, and information manipulation pose real threats to business continuity. The Colonial Pipeline case in 2021 demonstrated how a single ransomware attack can cripple critical infrastructure and generate cascading effects on the economy.

Building a culture of resilience

The key to navigating this complex market lies in building an organizational culture that is geared toward resilience. This means developing integrated risk management capabilities that include anticipation, response, and adaptation that permeate all levels of the organization.

Toyota’s case, with its approach to supply chain management after the 2011 earthquake in Japan, offers an illuminating example. The company implemented a detailed supplier mapping system up to the fourth level, allowing for rapid identification and mitigation of disruption risks.

Illuminating Case Studies

Nokia and the Albuquerque Fire

In 2000, a small fire at a Phillips Semiconductor plant in Albuquerque, New Mexico, created a supply chain crisis for major mobile phone manufacturers. While Ericsson was paralyzed for months, Nokia responded immediately by activating its network of alternative suppliers and redesigning some components to use different chips. This rapid and flexible response allowed Nokia to gain significant market share, while Ericsson suffered losses of more than $400 million.

Maersk and NotPetya

In 2017, Maersk fell victim to the NotPetya cyber attack that paralyzed its global operations. The company's response became a case study in organizational resilience: in 10 days, Maersk completely rebuilt its IT infrastructure, installing 4,000 new servers, 45,000 PCs and 2,500 applications. This experience led the company to implement a state-of-the-art cybersecurity system and develop more robust business continuity plans.

Air Asia and the COVID-19 Crisis

Air Asia has demonstrated remarkable strategic pivoting during the pandemic . The company has rapidly converted its business model, transforming its flight booking app into a super app for delivery, e-commerce and fintech services. This transformation has enabled the company to generate new revenue streams during the air travel shutdown.

Early Warning Systems and Strategic Intelligence

Implementing early warning systems requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates quantitative and qualitative data. Companies like Unilever have developed monitoring centers that continuously analyze key indicators, from social media trends to changes in consumption patterns, to identify potential crises in the early stages. Similarly, Italian companies can create task forces to analyze data, create statistical scenarios and formulate risk assessments to remain competitive and anticipate any potential crisis.

Leadership and Change Management

Effective crisis management requires agile and prepared leadership. The case of Ørsted , which successfully completed the transition from an oil company to a leader in renewable energy, demonstrates how a clear vision and strategic change management can transform challenges into opportunities.

Essential Reading: An In-Depth Analysis

“The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This seminal book introduces the concept of “black swan” events—unpredictable events with extreme impacts. Taleb explains how organizations can build “antifragile” systems that not only resist shocks but benefit from them. The book is especially relevant for understanding how to prepare for seemingly unlikely events with devastating consequences.

“Team of Teams” by General Stanley McChrystal

McChrystal describes the transformation of the U.S. Special Forces from a rigid hierarchical structure to an agile and adaptive network. The book offers valuable insights into how organizations can develop the ability to respond rapidly to complex and rapidly evolving threats. Particularly useful is his analysis of how to create “shared awareness” and “enhanced trust” within the organization.

“Crisis Leadership” by Nancy Koehn

Through five historical cases of leadership in times of crisis, Koehn extracts practical lessons for modern leaders. The book is particularly valuable for its analysis of how leaders can maintain decision clarity under extreme pressure and inspire resilience in their organizations.

“High Output Management” by Andrew Grove

Grove, former CEO of Intel , offers a unique perspective on proactive crisis management. His “paranoid optimization” methodology and “strategic turning points” approach are invaluable tools for anticipating and navigating business crises.

Conclusions and Future Perspectives

The ability to manage crises and ensure business continuity is set to become increasingly crucial. Organizations that can develop a culture of resilience, implement effective early warning systems, and maintain the flexibility needed to adapt quickly to change will be the ones that will thrive in the new global context.

The challenge for today's leaders is not so much to predict the future as to build organizations that thrive in uncertainty. This requires a sustained commitment to innovating risk management processes and building a resilient organizational culture. Incorporating lessons learned from the case studies presented and applying principles from the recommended readings can provide a solid foundation for developing this critical capability.

True organizational resilience manifests itself not only in the ability to survive crises, but to emerge stronger and better prepared for future challenges. In a world of increasing volatility and uncertainty, this ability represents a critical competitive advantage and a strategic necessity for long-term survival and success.