NBA MVP?

Who’s in the MVP mix this season?

Every season, the MVP race becomes a heated narrative — who’s performing, who’s elevating their team, and who’s got the storyline behind them. Here are some of the top candidates this year and what gives them a shot (or makes them longshots) at the trophy.

Front-Runners & Serious Contenders

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)

He’s the current favorite in many odds markets.

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Coming off a season in which he won the MVP — voters will watch to see if he can replicate or exceed that level.

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His ability to carry the Thunder offensively, while also contributing defensively, makes him a “safe bet” relative to flashier but less consistent candidates.

Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets)

Always dangerous in this conversation. Multiple MVPs in his resume give him credibility.

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He’s capable of filling the stat sheet across points, rebounds, assists — elite efficiency + team success is hard to beat.

The challenge: voters may favor a guard or someone with more visible “on/off” impact.

Luka Dončić (Los Angeles Lakers)

He generates attention just by being Luka. Big numbers, big games, high usage.

But to win MVP, he’ll need team success around him — voters tend to reward guys on winning teams.

If he can get the Lakers high in the standings, he could bump into the top tier.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)

The “Greek Freak” always has a chance. His defensive work, rebounding, and dominance in the paint give him value beyond scoring.

The key is durability and maintaining impact amid age and wear.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)

A longer shot, but a tantalizing one. His size, skill, and defensive potential make him someone to watch.

If he stays healthy and the Spurs improve, he could pick up more MVP chatter.

Pounding The Rock

The risk: consistency, injuries, and team record will all count heavily against him.

Dark Horses & Upside Gambles

Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) — He’s got the scoring ability and the flashes of brilliance. If Minnesota overperforms, Edwards could leap into the conversation.

Others — A surprise breakout or narrative season (e.g., someone leading a turnaround team) could bring wildcards into the mix.

What Voters Care About (and What Could Kill a Candidacy)

Team success: MVPs rarely come from teams below playoff contention.

Advanced metrics + eye test: It helps if your box score numbers are supported by efficiency, impact, plus/minus, etc.

Narrative & storyline: Sometimes the story sells — first time winner, leadership, multiple elite seasons, etc.

Durability & consistency: Missing games or having lulls will really hurt.

Prediction & Outlook

Most likely, one of the “big three” — Shai, Jokić, or Luka — will ultimately win. Shai has the edge given recent history and the current odds markets. But if Jokić puts up another absurd stat line, he’s never out of it. If Luka can carry the Lakers to high standing, he might steal votes too.

If I had to pick now: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander edges it, but I’d keep a close eye on Jokić and Dončić — they have the tools to punch back.