PLAGUES REPETITION

Introduction

People think that a plague is an ancient disease that occurred during the past centuries. But over a thousand people from the United States have been victims of these plagues according to research. The causative agent of the plague is a bacterium known as Yersinia pasta, which is moved around by pests and animals such as squirrels of the ground, rats, and fleas that are on them. The disease is famous for killing millions of individuals in Europe in the 1300s following a pandemic termed as Black Death. Recently, since the onset of the global pandemic of covid - 19, which has claimed thousands of lives in Italy, America, and China, it has been rumored that plagues occur after 100 years. Bubonic Plague was the first case that was ever recorded and it occurred in China in 224 B.C. Since that time several other plagues and pandemics have taken place all over the world. Years later, several Rumors about these plagues have occurred concerning the occurrence of these plagues. Recently, particularly on social media, and info-graphs have circulated a rumor that plagues occur after 100 years.

Origin and evolution of the rumor

According to research carried out by Elizabeth Kolbert, the seventh case of cholera broke out in Haiti in 2010 and spread out quickly in other cities. Rumors started spreading that the source of the outbreak, was an area that housed United Nations troops that originated from Nepal. The violence occurred in Cap-Haitian killing at least two individuals. For many years later, the troops denied the allegations but eventually, they admitted to having brought cholera to Haiti. Since that rumor began almost 10,000 individuals have died in Haiti. It is common among people especially during the occurrence of crisis, For example, natural disasters, attacks from terrorism, political turmoil, to try and emphasize a sense of knowledge and certainty and control of the occurrences by suggesting such patterns in their existence. These individuals will suggest whatever is taking place however, frightening and chaotic, it is natural and can be controlled. Over the years, the rumors have evolved and taken a different direction, especially with breakthroughs in science that provided evidence concerning the rumors individuals relied on scientific proof to verify their hearsay.

Spread

During this time of coved -19, the situation can be equated with an info graph that circulated in social media, especially on Facebook where it was shared over 400 times. Following the information, the graph gave a chronological order of the so-called plague occurrence.it argued the following

1720 — Plague occurrence

1820 — Outbreak of Cholera

1920 — Occurrence of Spanish flu;

2020 — COVID- 19, otherwise known as Chinese coronavirus.

The post went ahead and argued that something was happening according to this theory and that the occurrence of the events was scary. However, researchers decided to take a more realistic and scientific approach to the same question.

This info graph circulated is a popular tactic of forming the impression that there is a definite pattern by only selecting small pieces of information or data that may or may not be relevant while underestimating the larger amount of info that's related just because it does not fit into the pattern formed. The info graph is not accurate and is highly questionable because of the reasons below;

Why the rumor is not true

According to extensive research carried out by Benedict, the info graph had ignored all the centuries that ended by 20 earlier than the year 1720 although the pandemics took place long before the 18th century. Only four entries were considered in the info graph, ignoring the larger convincing body of data.

On the other hand, the info graph ignored all other pandemics that occurred in other years apart from the ones that ended with 20. This is because allowing those years would suggest a different pattern of no pattern at all. The pandemics that were listed did not have any significance accord, for example, geographical extent, period it happened; disease underlying that indicated any pattern that has a meaning.

Extensive research carried out by Benedict has shown that in the United States amidst the years 1900 and 1925, over five hundred plague cases existed. The cases were mainly centered in cities such as Louisiana and California which all had ports. The disease entered the United States through rats that were infected. The rats reached the US through ships. The first case of plague happened in San Francisco in a china town.

During this time, there were various other outbreaks of pneumonic plague which could be transmitted between people. In most scenarios, other plagues were being transmitted through fleas for example; Bubonic plague was transmitted through bites by fleas. In the years 1962 & 1964, there were about forty-two cases of plagues, about a single case every year and the cases were centered in California, inland, and New Mexico. There were smaller cases in Colorado, Arizona, Idaho, Utah, and Oregon. The cases increased amidst the years 1965 &2012 when there were over 400 cases of the plague that were reported. Eight of them in each year occurred in the southwest.

This increase of plagues only suggested one thing; Yersinia pestis had become entrenched fully in transmission cycles of diseases in animals in the west according to scholars. The diseases which were endemic in the united states continued to cause several illnesses which were very rare in humans. Individuals that are infected with the plague mostly contracted the disease during outdoor activities especially in places where the disease was endemic.

Scholars have argued there's no particular pattern of 100 years of recurrence since most of the plagues, disasters, and pandemic diseases are not natural. Some occurrences of the Plague have been exuberated by human activities such as pollution. However accurate or false it is that plagues occur after every 100 years, there’s the aspect of human activities causing their occurrence. According to research conducted by Cheke and Holt, (109-115);

Spectral analysis of a sixty-six-year data that had a flock of locusts in abundance failed to indicate any important occurrence of a cycle even though the cycle that was dominant identified certain series when adjusted could account for an automatic for one year lag had a period of sixteen years.

Even though, various estimations of the increased rate of desert locusts indicated confusion in the reconstruction of dynamics of locusts utilizing the methodology of the response surface showing stability that's exponential. According to data for the West African region that included rainfall data from the Sahel enhanced the importance of the methodology.

There was a positive correlation between an abundance of rainfall and an increased number of locusts in West Africa which showed the significance of rain. However, it is poor utilizing rainfall as the lone predictor (Cheke and Holt, 109-115).

The truth about the occurrence of plagues

It’s true to say that seasonal viruses, pandemics, and plagues occur; however, the recurrence of a 100-year pattern is not true. The epidemics and plagues that have occurred do not show a specific pattern according to the info graph that circulated in social media.

According to ( Pamuk, 289-317), the Black Death epidemic took place between the years 1347&1351 which is over four hundred years long before those dates claimed in the info graph. On the other hand, the plague was brought about by bacteria and not by a virus.

On the other hand, cholera is also caused by bacteria and not a virus according to a report by Lancet. The cholera pandemic occurred between the years 1817&1923 and has occurred more than six times in these years. Another pandemic that followed occurred started in the years 1961 According to (Lever and Garman, 1309-1316), another pandemic that was termed as Spanish flu took place in the year 1918 and this was two years earlier than the indicated time in the info graph.

According to extensive research carried out by Zhang, COVID-19 which has centered the entire rumor can be traced back to the year 2019 when it was confirmed in Wuhan in China. This is earlier than the date indicated in the info graph. Doctors were dealing with many cases of pneumonia whose origin was not known. After eight good days, a new type of coronavirus was identified by china. In the United States, the first case of coronavirus was established, in Jan 2020. Other pandemics such as Ebola, AIDS, and SARs do not fit in the pattern claimed in the info graph.

Conclusion

Is it true that plagues have repeated their occurrence exactly after every 100 years? A heated argument in social media especially, Facebook claimed that a pandemic must occur after 100 years. It only suggested four pandemics that occurred in the years 1720,1820,1920 and 2020. however, the claims are seriously questionable. What is more, the argument ignored several other pandemics that have occurred in many centuries and do not fit in the sequence. And so it is not true that plagues occur each after 100 years.