Unraveling the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry: Fueling Conflicts Across the Middle East

In one of the world's most intricate geopolitical landscapes, the Middle East remains marred by chaos, with four failing states and three ongoing wars. Major powers, often on opposing sides, further complicate the region's stability, while armed militias and terrorist groups continue to sow violence across borders. This tumultuous state of affairs has deep historical roots, but at its core lies a bitter rivalry between two nations: Saudi Arabia and Iran. Their feud, marked by proxy warfare, is central to understanding the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, evolving into what some describe as a Cold War.

While Saudi Arabia and Iran have never directly declared war on each other, they engage in indirect confrontations by supporting opposing factions in neighboring countries and instigating conflicts. This strategy, known as proxy warfare, has had devastating consequences for the region, as smaller nations find themselves manipulated by larger powers. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran view these civil wars as both threats and opportunities, making the entire Middle East a battleground for their influence.

To comprehend the origins of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, we must trace the histories of these nations. In the early 1900s, the Arabian Peninsula consisted of tribal territories under Ottoman Empire control. After World War I, the empire's collapse led to power struggles among these tribes. Eventually, the al-Saud tribe conquered most of the peninsula, culminating in the establishment of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932. Six years later, the discovery of massive oil reserves transformed Saudi Arabia into a wealthy nation, enabling it to build infrastructure and establish a close alliance with the United States.

On the eastern side of the Persian Gulf, Iran was also emerging but faced significant challenges. Despite abundant oil reserves and a larger Muslim population, constant foreign intervention fueled turmoil. Iran had been invaded by the Russians and British multiple times since the 18th century, and in 1953, the U.S. orchestrated a coup, removing Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh and replacing him with Reza Shah, who aimed to Westernize the nation. However, his rule was marred by corruption and the oppressive Savak secret police.

By the 1970s, both Saudi Arabia and Iran had oil-based economies and received strong backing from the U.S. Nonetheless, their populations had differing sentiments. The Shah of Iran's authoritarian reforms left Iranians feeling stifled, and in 1979, the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew his regime. This event marked the beginning of heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Ayatollah Khomeini advocated for an Islamic government led by the clergy and was highly critical of Western-backed secular monarchies. His revolution terrified the Saudi government, fearing it would inspire similar uprisings among their population. Additionally, Khomeini challenged Saudi Arabia's claim to leadership in the Muslim world due to the presence of Islam's holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, on Saudi soil. While the Sunni-Shia split wasn't the root cause of the rivalry, it deepened the division, as Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni and Iran predominantly Shia.

After the revolution, Iran began "exporting its revolution" by supporting Shia groups in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia, prompting Saudi Arabia to bolster its alliance with the U.S. and form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with other Gulf monarchies. The stage was set for conflict, leading to Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980.

Iraq, under the rule of Saddam Hussein, invaded Iran to halt the spread of the Iranian revolution and gain control of its oil reserves. Stalemate ensued, with trench warfare, chemical weapons, and heavy civilian casualties characterizing the conflict. When Iran began gaining the upper hand, Saudi Arabia supported Iraq with money, weapons, and logistical aid. This support allowed Iraq to continue fighting until 1988, resulting in nearly a million deaths. The feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalated further.

In 2003, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein disrupted the regional balance. Iraq had acted as a buffer between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and both nations were displeased with the U.S. struggle to stabilize the country. The vacuum left by the U.S. intervention allowed armed militias to take control, exacerbating sectarian divisions. Sunni and Shia militias emerged, some of which were extremist groups.

These militias became proxies for Saudi Arabia and Iran, as both nations sought to exert influence in Iraq. Saudi Arabia supported Sunni militias, while Iran backed Shia groups, plunging Iraq into a proxy war. This trend continued during the Arab Spring in 2011, with Saudi Arabia and Iran backing different groups across the Middle East, aiming to preserve or disrupt the status quo.

In Yemen, Saudi Arabia deployed its military to support the central government against Houthi rebels, who were proxies of Iran. Conversely, in Syria, Iran's military assisted dictator Bashar al-Assad, alongside extremist groups like Hezbollah, in fighting Sunni rebel groups supported by Saudi Arabia. The more civil wars erupted, the deeper Saudi Arabia and Iran became embroiled, as both nations perceived threats to their vital interests.

Now, this Cold War extends its reach to other countries. Saudi Arabia has threatened Qatar due to its growing ties with Iran. Additionally, in Syria and Iraq, ISIS's decline has sparked a race for control of liberated territories between Saudi Arabia and Iran, further complicating the region's stability.

As the Middle East continues to unravel, it remains uncertain how far Saudi Arabia and Iran will go in their quest for regional dominance. The Cold War dynamic has made the region increasingly unpredictable, and the consequences are felt not only by the nations directly involved but by the entire world. The complex web of Middle East conflicts, driven by this Saudi-Iranian rivalry, continues to shape the region's destiny, with no clear end in sight.