Three million jobs could be replaced by AI in 10 years: customer service and machine operators at greatest risk

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation on the UK job market could be more profound than previously anticipated. A recent report by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) warns that up to three million jobs in declining sectors could disappear by 2035.

The NFER analysis, based on eight working papers, argues that the most threatened positions are in areas such as customer service, administrative tasks, secretarial work, and machine operation.

According to the report, these jobs are experiencing a much faster decline than expected, and it is estimated that between one and three million of them could disappear in the next ten years.

This trend, driven by technological advancement, demands a coordinated response to prepare both young people and current workers for a constantly evolving job market.

How to prevent AI from jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of workers

The document underscores the need to build a lifelong learning system, from childhood to old age, that guarantees the acquisition of skills relevant to life and work.

In this regard, it identifies six “Essential Skills for Employment” (ESE) that will be crucial in the future: communication, collaboration, problem-solving, organization, planning and prioritization, creative thinking, and information literacy.

The report warns of existing gaps in these skills and points out that, if left unaddressed, these deficiencies could worsen, widening the gap between market demands and workforce preparedness.

Which occupations will see an increase in job openings

Despite the loss of jobs in low- and middle-skilled sectors, the report forecasts that the total number of jobs in the UK will increase by 2035.

However, this growth will be concentrated in professional and associate occupations, such as science, engineering, and legal roles, where the use of the six EES (Educational Skills Index) is more prevalent. In contrast, most low- and middle-skilled jobs will continue to decline at an accelerating rate.

Jude Hillary, senior research fellow for the program and co-director of UK policy and practice at NFER, emphasized the urgency of taking action. “The time has come to confront this critical challenge head-on, and we all have a role to play,” Hillary stated, according to the NFER report.

Furthermore, she emphasized the importance of concerted action: “Addressing the projected skills shortage requires a collective response from government, employers, and all education and training systems.”

Hillary also highlighted the need to strengthen early childhood support, reduce inequalities in schools, improve pathways to growing jobs, and rebuild the adult skills system to achieve inclusive growth.

Why strengthening in-demand skills is key

Another analysis conducted as part of the program reveals that some 3.7 million workers already have substantial gaps in the six essential skills required to perform their jobs effectively. Without intervention, this number is projected to rise to seven million by 2035.

The report warns that a shortage of skilled workers at higher levels of the labor market could limit economic growth, while job losses at lower levels could leave many people unemployed.

The document points out that skills gaps can emerge before the age of five and widen over time, reinforcing the need for early interventions.

What should public and educational policies look like

Among the measures to be taken, the study proposes that early childhood policies support disadvantaged families in accessing high-quality early childhood education and care, ensuring that their children fully benefit from expanded childcare options.

In the school setting, the report suggests recognizing early childhood education as a vital part of education, both for life and work, and articulating how it can be effectively developed within a knowledge-rich curriculum.