The Inflexion Point of the Era is Here

Most people are not aware that China is currently at a significant inflexion point in the era. The upheavals in the next 20 years will far exceed those of the previous 40 years. This is not a gradual upgrade but a reconstruction of the underlying logic. Those who cling to old ways will be eliminated, while those who grasp the new rules can break through.

In the previous 40 years, success was achieved by "following the trend". Thanks to the demographic dividend, policy dividend, and real estate dividend, as long as one dared to venture and act, even without extreme precision, one could secure a share of the pie. However, over the next 20 years, dividends will no longer be widely distributed. Opportunities lie in "reconstruction" - technology will reconstruct industries, cognition will reconstruct wealth, and models will reconstruct survival. Relying on following the crowd or brute-force work will only become increasingly complex.

Technology Reconstruction: A Complete Rewrite

Technology is not just a simple replacement but a complete rewrite. In the previous 40 years, it was about "technology application". The Internet has moved offline activities online, and e-commerce has replaced some physical stores. In the next 20 years, it will be "technology reconstruction". AI will replace repetitive labour, new energy will change the energy landscape, and biotechnology will reshape our understanding of health. It's not just about changing tools; the logic of work and the path to generating revenue will also change. For example, factories will no longer rely on labour-intensive approaches but instead on intelligent production lines. Businesses will no longer rely on offline traffic but on private-domain operations and data-driven strategies.

Industry Transformation: From "Scale is King" to "Meticulous Cultivation Wins"

Industries will shift from "scale is king" to "meticulous cultivation wins". Over the past 40 years, enterprises competed on production capacity, distribution channels, and price. The bigger, the stronger. Over the next 20 years, competition will centre on innovation, quality, and segmentation. Traditional manufacturing industries will be eliminated if they don't upgrade. For instance, clothing OEM factories need to engage in original design and flexible production. Emerging industries will be overshadowed if they lack focus. For example, in AI, one needs to examine specific scenarios rather than make general statements. For ordinary people, the opportunity lies not in being a cog in a large industry but in being a king in a niche area.

Reversal of the Wealth Logic

The logic of wealth has completely reversed. In the previous 40 years, one could make money through real estate, resources, and boldness. Over the next 20 years, one needs cognition, skills, and innovation to remain resilient. Real estate is no longer an asset that guarantees profit, and resources are no longer a sure-fire way to make money. Boldness without knowledge and skills will only turn into recklessness. Real wealth lies in "irreplaceable abilities". For example, office workers who can use AI to improve efficiency, small business owners who can create products to meet niche demands, and entrepreneurs who understand data operations.

Demographic Structure Forcing Rule Rewrite

The demographic structure is forcing a rewrite of the rules. Ageing and the low birth rate are not distant issues but are realities affecting every industry. The care industry for older people, childcare services, and health management will expand, whereas traditional labour-intensive industries will shrink. At the same time, Generation Z has become the leading consumer group. They don't pay for brand premiums but for emotional value. They don't rely on advertising but on real experiences. Even large enterprises will decline if they can't meet the needs of this new group.

Global Pattern Reconstruction: Bringing New Opportunities

The reconstruction of the global pattern brings new opportunities. In the previous 40 years, the focus was on "integrating into the global market" and earning foreign exchange through OEM and export activities. In the next 20 years, it will be about "self-control + global layout". Chips, high-end manufacturing, and cultural exports will become new growth points. Ordinary people don't need to focus on international giants. Local specialised and innovative enterprises and domestic brands will have greater opportunities to grow. For example, small factories producing domestic substitute parts and entrepreneurs working on traditional cultural IPs can all share the dividends of the era.

Four Steps for Ordinary People to Break the Deadlock

There are four steps for ordinary people to break the deadlock.

- Firstly, learn complex skills. Focus on one cutting-edge field each year, such as AI applications, data analytics, or cross-border e-commerce. Don't be greedy for too many things.

- Secondly, change the track. If the industry you're in is shrinking, don't persevere blindly. Switch to a sunrise industry as early as possible, even if starting from the bottom.

- Thirdly, develop soft skills. Communication, innovation, and rapid learning are skills that AI can't replace.

- Fourthly, test with small-cost experiments. If you want to start a business, don't go all-in. Test with side jobs or small projects and expand after the model works.

The Inflexion Point: A Reshuffle, Not a Crisis

The inflexion point is not a crisis but a reshuffle. Those who succeeded in the previous 40 years may be excluded for their conservatism. Ordinary people today can achieve a counterattack as long as they seize the opportunities for reconstruction. For example, some use AI for short-video e-commerce, some rely on private domains for community services, and some target the elderly care industry to create niche products. They are all seeking opportunities under the new rules.

Don't fantasise about a peaceful life. Over the next 20 years, the pace of iteration will accelerate. Popular skills today may become obsolete tomorrow, and the money-making models today may stop working tomorrow. Instead of fearing change, we should actively embrace it and make "adapting to reconstruction" a lifelong habit.

The core of the era's inflexion point is "reconstruction": technology reconstructs industries, cognition reconstructs wealth, and models reconstruct survival. In the next 20 years, it's not about who has accumulated more but who can reconstruct faster. The conservative will be eliminated, and the innovator can move forward.

Under the inflexion point, it's not an extension of the past but a starting line for the future. Reconstruct yourself to win the future.