The Decline of China's Population

China's population has been shrinking for the past 60 years. In 2022, China had more deaths than births causing its population to decrease for the first time in 6 decades. The reason this is such a big deal is that China is the world's manufacturing superpower and its economy relies heavily on its population. As of now, China's population is still about as significant as it has ever been- 1.4 billion people. But by the end of the century, it is projected to shrink by almost half due to factors like China's growth and policies. If China wants to keep its population stable, it might be too late.

China's Population Growth Driven by Later Marriages, Longer Birth Intervals and Fewer Births. China experienced one of the most gruesome famines on record in the 50s. Thirty million people died, leading to a big spike in deaths. At the same time, the birth rate dropped, causing the population to shrink. However, as often happens with crises after, there was a baby boom and China's average family now has 6 children. Combined with global medical advances that decreased infant mortality rates, China's birth rate had skyrocketed which caused leadership to become concerned. The Chinese government came out with a policy they called “Later, Longer, Fewer” in an effort to decrease population growth. Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and few births began happening throughout the policy era. While these campaigns began during the Later Marriages, Longer Birth Intervals, and Fewer Birth periods they reached their worst under China's one-child policy.

Population growth is under control when couples have, on average, 2.1 children. But China had accomplished its goal. Population growth was under control except China would soon realize these restrictive policies worked a little too well. In order for any population to stay the same size in the long run, each couple needs to have below-replacement-rate fertility rates. China has had a fertility rate that's far below replacement for over three decades. To bring that up in 2016, China finally ended the one-child policy. After briefly trying out the three-child policy in 2021, they finally let families have as many children as they’d like.

It hasn't, though. The particular family structure that the one-child policy creates is a significant factor. We're looking at a family structure known as a 4-2-1, in which a pair has 4 parents above them and 1 child below.

Most nations have a variety of family structures, some with three children and others without any. Millions of only children, however, are under increasing pressure to care for their aging parents and elderly grandparents as a result of China's 4-2-1 model. And this can make having several kids much more difficult, especially with the rising expense of living. According to a recent survey, more than 50% of young individuals don't desire more than one child due to financial and employment demands.

Kindergarten subsidies and other forms of financial assistance have all been observed. The truth is that very few of them have succeeded since having a child is extremely expensive and requires a lifetime commitment. It is therefore quite difficult to assign a monetary value to this. However, the population crisis in China is not just about newborns. In addition, the harmony between young and old is important. If we examine population pyramids that display the distribution of individuals by age, we can observe that rapidly populating nations like Kenya have a shape that is wide at the bottom, signifying a large influx of new children, and narrow at the top.

Philippines-like nations with slower growth are still triangular. But there is less of a distinction between the top and bottom. Now look at China; you'll see that it has a narrow bottom and fewer babies. And the heavy top: a greater proportion of senior citizens. This is a positive result of our rising standards of living and bettering health, but when combined with persistently low fertility, it just results in persistent population aging. This is how the pyramid is predicted to look in 2050. And that will further reduce China's population, reduce its labor force, and place the entire nation in an exceptionally challenging situation.

China developed and became a hub for cheap manufacturing and exports in the 1980s. A generation later, it was climbing the economic ladder quickly and was one of the largest and fastest-growing economies by GDP. However, economic modernization not only resulted in further declines in birthrates, it also did not result in a more prosperous economy for all. China has a far lower level of life than these high-income nations when we compare GDP per capita, which is our best measure of living standards. Despite almost overnight economic growth, China is still a middle-income nation. Many, especially those living in rural areas, have not reaped the benefits of China's economic rise... Moreover, China has not yet created the safety nets required to care for its aging population. To create the social infrastructure, such as the social programs for pensions and health care...

It requires time. And with the economy slowing down, it's actually getting harder. Furthermore, a weaker economy will inevitably change China's status as a global manufacturing superpower. This implies that China's ambition and it's ability to reach out to the rest of the globe would be constrained by internal resource limits. In certain respects, China is not unique. Numerous nations in Asia and Europe are also seeing population declines. China stands out because of how quickly things have changed there. China only began utilizing it's rapidly expanding population to transform into an economic superpower 40 years ago, all the while attempting to slow down population development. China's population growth has now been declared to be finished... China may need to reevaluate its destiny, not just as a global superpower but also for its own people.