Rounds 1 and 2 in Oman and Rome

Can Trump Restore the Nuclear Deal He Broken with Iran in 2018? The Views of Experts In 2018, former President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the hope that a campaign of "maximum pressure" would force Iran into negotiating a nuclear agreement that was more comprehensive and restrictive. Instead, the Islamic Republic responded by increasing regional destabilization through its proxies, increasing uranium enrichment, decreasing cooperation with international inspectors, and incrementally violating the terms of the initial agreement. Now, in a stunning turn of events, Trump—currently in his second term—is attempting to mend what many see as a self-inflicted diplomatic wound. Iran and the United States have resumed indirect talks, with a quiet first round in Oman and a scheduled second round in Rome. These negotiations are aimed at reviving the nuclear deal or constructing a new framework that will contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, restore regional stability, and mend the broken trust between Tehran and Washington.

Why not now? Trump’s renewed interest in a deal comes amid growing global concern about Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. According to the (IAEA), Iran hInternational Atomic Energy Agency as enriched uranium up to 60% purity—close to weapons-grade levels—and is limiting inspector access to key facilities. Meanwhile, incidents involving Iran-backed groups in, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have the potential to escalate regional tensions. There is also domestic pressure. Trump is eager to demonstrate progress on foreign policy ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 and win a political victory by presenting himself as a dealmaker who can control one of America's long-standing adversaries. A Softer U.S. Stance

What’s striking about the current negotiation strategy is how different it is from Trump's earlier “all-or-nothing” approach. Senior U.S. officials claim that the administration is now willing to tolerate Iran's uranium enrichment at low levels, specifically below the 3.67 percent threshold outlined in the 2015 agreement, provided that Tehran agrees to strict oversight by the IAEA and a clearly defined cap on stockpiles. The United States is also advocating for provisions that go beyond the nuclear file. These include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile development, a phased withdrawal of Iranian military advisors in conflict zones like Syria, and a halt to support for militant proxies including Hezbollah and the Houthis.

A senior State Department official stated to the Wall Street Journal, "We're not trying to undo the past; we're trying to build a safer future." Iran’s program is too advanced now to pretend 2015 can be fully replicated—but it can be reimagined.”

Iran's Strategic Response Iran has approached the negotiations cautiously. After Trump's withdrawal in 2018 and the subsequent reimposition of crippling sanctions that devastated the Iranian economy, the leadership in Tehran remains deeply mistrustful of Washington's intentions. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, has made it clear that any agreement must include "ironclad guarantees" that the United States will not abandon it again. Iran is also rejecting U.S. proposals to move enriched uranium to a third country. They, on the other hand, insist that the material be stored domestically under IAEA supervision. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollah Ian emphasized that “Iran has no intention to build a bomb, but will not forfeit its right to peaceful enrichment.”

All Trump-era sanctions, including those tied to terrorism designations and banking restrictions, which have severely hampered Iran's economy and global trade, are also included in Iran's demands. In return, Iran has proposed halting enrichment above 20%, increasing inspector access, and collaborating on regional de-escalation efforts. The Community Chessboard These negotiations are not happening in a vacuum. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates all pay close attention. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has expressed willingness to support a diplomatic solution if it results in real constraints on Iran’s missile program and curbs regional proxy violence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also reportedly offered to host future talks if the Rome round shows progress.

Israel, on the other hand, is still skeptical of any deal that allows Iran to maintain its low-level enrichment capabilities. Netanyahu recently stated that a "strategic mistake" would result from any agreement that fails to "permanently disable" Iran's nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, tensions continue to simmer on the ground. Just days before the Oman talks, a U.S. naval vessel intercepted an Iranian drone near the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon has also confirmed the deployment of additional naval assets to the region, signaling that diplomacy is unfolding under the shadow of potential military confrontation.

Whether Trump can successfully revive a nuclear agreement with Iran remains to be seen. Analysts point to a few key challenges. Trust Deficit Iran is unlikely to fully commit to any deal without mechanisms to prevent another U.S. pullout. This may require Senate approval or multilateral guarantees—neither of which are easy to achieve.

Domestic Opposition: Trump faces skepticism at home, not just from Democrats wary of his foreign policy U-turns, but also from Republican hawks who still favor a hardline approach.

Iran’s Internal Politics: With Iranian hardliners dominating parliament and key ministries, even moderate concessions could face fierce internal pushback.

Time pressure: Both sides may find themselves constrained by domestic realities with Iran's nuclear clock ticking and the upcoming elections in the United States. Some experts remain cautiously optimistic in spite of these obstacles. Dr. According to Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institution Vice President for Foreign Policy, "It's ironic, but Trump may be in a stronger position now to broker a deal than he was in 2018." Iran knows his threats aren’t empty, but it also sees an opportunity to stabilize its economy and reduce isolation.”

Round 1 in Oman and Round 2 in Rome signal a diplomatic thaw that was once unthinkable. The Trump administration’s pivot toward renewed engagement with Iran suggests a recognition that containment—rather than confrontation—may be the only viable path forward. However, for a new deal to succeed, it must balance political realities with durable safeguards, rebuild trust, and deliver tangible security guarantees to all parties.

Whether Trump can fix what he once broke remains a question not just of diplomacy, but of political will and historical reckoning. For now, the world watches, hopeful but wary, as the nuclear clock continues to tick.