Canada Reduces Permanent and Temporary Resident Admission Targets

On October 24, the Canadian government unveiled a revised Immigration Levels Plan, announcing a reduction in targets for the admission of permanent residents and temporary residents over the next three years.

Permanent Resident Targets

The Immigration Levels Plan revealed the following adjustments to permanent resident admission targets:

• 2025: 395,000, a decrease from the previous target of 485,000 for 2024 and the initially announced goal of 500,000 in the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan.
• 2026: 380,000, reduced from the earlier target of 500,000 in the same plan.
• 2027: 365,000.

While the overall immigration targets are being lowered, the government aims to increase the focus on economic immigration. The targets for economic immigration in 2025 have only decreased by 17%, from 281,000 to 232,000.

Notably, over 40% of economic immigrants are expected to come from temporary residents currently in Canada. In an atypical move, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spearheaded the announcement, which is usually made by the Immigration Minister. Trudeau praised Canadian immigration, stating, "It's made our economy the envy of the world."

Both Trudeau and Immigration Minister Sean Miller affirmed Canada’s ongoing commitment to immigration.

Reductions in Provincial Nominee Programs

This year's plan has also cut targets for the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) admissions by approximately 50%:

• 2025: 55,000, down from last year's target of 110,000 for 2024 and 120,000 for 2025.
• 2026: 55,000, reduced from 120,000 in last year's plan.
• 2027: 55,000.

This significant reduction in PNP targets signals a notable shift in the federal government's immigration policy.

Increase in Federal High Skilled Economic Immigration

Conversely, the federal government is allocating a larger share of economic immigration to Federal High Skilled (FHS) programs managed through Express Entry. While PNP targets have been drastically cut, FHS targets have actually increased:

• 2025: 124,680, an increase from last year's target of 110,770 for 2024 and 117,500 for 2025.
• 2026: 123,230, up from last year's 117,500 target for 2026.
• 2027: 118,730.

These figures for FHS in the current plan are derived from the "Federal Economic Priorities" and "In-Canada Focus" categories in this year’s supplementary information, excluding Federal Business. In the previous year's supplementary information, FHS was categorized separately.

Support for French-Speaking Immigrants Outside Quebec

The federal government will maintain its policy of increasing the share of admissions for French-speaking immigrants settling outside Quebec as a percentage of overall permanent resident admissions:

• 2025: 8.5%
• 2026: 9.5%
• 2027: 10%

Temporary Resident Levels

This year’s plan also introduces targets for temporary resident admissions, a first in prior immigration plans. The announcement comes after a series of changes this year regarding Canada’s immigration system, especially concerning temporary residents (those holding work or study permits). The government aims to reduce the proportion of temporary residents from 7% to 5% of Canada’s overall population by the end of 2026.

A significant decline in the number of work permits is expected between 2025 and 2026, primarily due to a drastic reduction in permits allocated to the International Mobility Program (IMP), which has a target of 285,750 for 2025, dropping to just 128,700 for 2026. In contrast, work permits issued under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) will remain stable at 82,000 per year for the next three years. The government anticipates that transitioning temporary residents to permanent status—through pathways like Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Express Entry draws and PNPs—will contribute to the overall decrease in the percentage of temporary residents.

Expected changes in Canada’s population of temporary residents include a decrease of about 445,000 in 2025 and another 445,000 in 2026, followed by a slight increase of approximately 17,000 in 2027. This anticipated decline is attributed to:

• Temporary residents becoming permanent residents.
• Temporary residents having their status expire.
• 2024 Cap on Study Permit Applications

On January 22, IRCC announced its first-ever cap on international student admissions to curb the growing number of foreign nationals holding study permits in Canada. Initially intended as a temporary measure, this policy has been made permanent and now also regulates the issuance of study permits for master’s and PhD students. The cap aims to limit new study permits to 360,000 in 2024.

Along with this cap, IRCC modified eligibility criteria for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) throughout the year. Initially, it was announced that students enrolled in programs with curriculum-licensing agreements would no longer qualify for PGWPs starting in September.

Reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program

Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) has recently faced scrutiny. During the October 24 announcement, Trudeau criticized Canadian businesses for "exploiting cheap foreign labor" and stressed the need for reform. Earlier this year, the government halted the processing of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for the low-wage stream of the TFWP in Montreal and subsequently in census metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher. Additionally, the government has limited TFWP work permits for the low-wage stream to one year, down from the previous two-year limit.

Previous Measures on Study Permits, PGWPs, and Spousal Open Work Permits

On September 18, Miller outlined changes expected to lead to significant reductions over the next three years:

• 300,000 fewer study permits
• 175,000 fewer PGWPs
• 150,000 fewer spousal open work permits

These changes include:

• Restricting PGWPs to graduates from programs aligned with in-demand jobs for college graduates.
• Imposing a language test requirement for PGWPs.
• Requiring master's programs to last at least 18 months for spouses of master's students to be eligible for spousal open work permits.
• Limiting spousal open work permits to spouses of workers in in-demand jobs.
• Graduates from eligible bachelor's, master's, and PhD programs will continue to qualify for PGWPs, irrespective of their field of study. College graduates will need a Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) score of 5 to qualify for PGWPs, while university graduates will require a CLB score of 7.

About the Immigration Levels Plan

The Immigration Levels Plan serves as the government’s official document outlining its approach to immigration. Each year’s plan specifies targets for the upcoming year and the following two years, with the subsequent year’s targets generally being fixed while those for the next two years are provisional and subject to adjustments.

Despite the decrease in the targeted number of new permanent residents, the targets for 2025 are still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The plan does not encompass all foreign nationals residing in Canada for extended periods, such as asylum seekers or parents/grandparents on super visas, nor does it account for seasonal workers.

Rationale Behind the Changes

Miller stated that these adjustments reflect a "middle-of-the-road" approach, asserting, "We have a controlled immigration plan that we can be proud of." Trudeau hinted at potential political motivations for these changes, remarking, "We're focused on winning the next election."