Brewing Trouble: How Climate Change Threatens the Global Coffee Industry

Introduction

Coffee, one of the world's most beloved beverages, has a rich history and a complex journey from bean to cup. It takes 3-4 years for coffee plants to grow before they bear the precious berries that are picked, washed, pulped, dried, and roasted to create that familiar brew. Globally, we consume a staggering 500 billion cups of coffee each year, sourced from millions of farmers across Latin America, Africa, and Asia. However, a looming crisis is threatening the coffee industry's future, driven by the adverse impacts of man-made climate change.

Climate Change and Coffee's Precarious Habitat

Coffee cultivation relies on specific geographic conditions. Arabica coffee, the most prized variety, is particularly sensitive. It thrives in temperatures between 18–21°C, with too much heat causing berries to develop poorly and freezing temperatures being equally detrimental. Arabica also requires a precise amount of rainfall, preferably with a 3-month dry season to enable flowering. Importantly, it needs warm days and cool nights, making high elevations ideal for cultivation.

Colombia, a major coffee producer, epitomizes the perfect coffee-growing environment. The Zona Cafetera, Colombia's coffee region, has long been celebrated for its exceptional coffee quality. The entire process, from farming to processing, is meticulously done by hand, contributing to Colombia's reputation as a coffee powerhouse.

However, climate change has already begun affecting coffee cultivation in the Zona Cafetera. Over the past four decades, rising greenhouse gas emissions have raised regional temperatures by 1.2 degrees Celsius since 1980. Consequently, the optimal elevation for coffee growth has shifted higher up the mountains, leaving lower-altitude plants vulnerable to overheating and producing lower-quality beans. Climate change also encourages the proliferation of pests and fungi, further impacting coffee quality.

Crisis in the Coffee Fields

The effects of climate change are evident on coffee farms across Colombia. Villa Gloria, located at a lower elevation, bears the brunt of warming temperatures, resulting in diminished coffee quality. Higher up the slope, Santa Fe farm faces the threat of coffee rust, a fungal disease. El Oasis farm grapples with unpredictable weather patterns, making it challenging to predict the coffee plant's lifecycle. These issues have contributed to a 7% reduction in coffee cultivation land in Colombia since 2013, with further declines expected.

The Zona Cafetera's climate is projected to warm by 0.3 degrees per decade, accompanied by increased extreme weather events. This trend isn't unique to Colombia; coffee-growing regions worldwide will encounter similar challenges. A recent study anticipates that by 2050, the land suitable for coffee cultivation will be halved. Additionally, climate change poses a significant threat to wild coffee species, with an estimated 60% at risk of extinction. Some of these wild species are vital for breeding resistant Arabica varieties, making them crucial for sustaining coffee production.

Historical Significance of Coffee and the Impact of Climate Change

Coffee has played a vital role in Colombia's history. In the early 20th century, as global coffee demand surged, Colombia became the world's second-largest coffee producer. Large coffee plantations, known as haciendas, dominated the industry, with laborers, including peasants, indigenous people, and former slaves, toiling under brutal conditions. The economic collapse triggered by the 1929 US stock market crash prompted the Colombian government to step in. It purchased haciendas from owners and divided them into smaller plots, which were sold to laborers. This shift transformed Colombia's coffee industry into one led by smallholder farmers.

In 1962, Colombia, along with 69 other countries, signed the International Coffee Agreement, establishing minimum export prices. This accord elevated Colombia's smallholder coffee farmers, and the cafetero, as the coffee farmer is known, became a symbol of Colombian coffee around the world.

The Perils of an Uncertain Future

Today, Colombia stands as the world's third-largest coffee exporter, thanks to its approximately 500,000 small farms. Nevertheless, these smallholder farmers face economic challenges exacerbated by climate change. While solutions exist, such as planting shade trees, shifting cultivation uphill, and adopting more resistant coffee varieties, these remedies require substantial investments that many smallholders cannot afford.

The coffee industry has undergone significant changes since the 1980s. The collapse of the coffee agreement and the entry of cheap coffee from other countries have led to price fluctuations, challenging the economic sustainability of smallholder farmers. As coffee prices remain below the breakeven point for many, adapting to climate change becomes increasingly difficult. Consequently, some coffee farmers in Colombia's Zona Cafetera are transitioning away from coffee cultivation, exacerbating the threat to an entire coffee culture.

Conclusion

The global coffee industry is at a crossroads, grappling with the dual challenges of climate change and economic sustainability for smallholder farmers. Coffee's journey from bean to cup is under threat, and the cultural significance of coffee in countries like Colombia is at risk.

To secure the future of coffee, it's imperative that coffee prices rise to levels that enable farmers to adapt to climate change. Otherwise, the rich history and tradition of coffee cultivation may become casualties of an uncertain future, leaving coffee lovers worldwide to contemplate a world with less of their favorite brew.