BigBear.ai Stock Forecast: Will the AI Surge Fuel Growth in the Next Year?

Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and reshape industries—and BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) is one company at the intersection of AI and national security. Once seen as a struggling player, BigBear.ai has rallied impressively, surging over 86% in early 2025, raising hopes for a long-term turnaround. But the big question remains: Where will BigBear.ai stock be in one year?

With fresh contracts, a new CEO, and a significant government-backed backlog, optimism is growing. Yet challenges around profitability and execution still cloud the outlook.

Let’s break down what’s behind the stock's comeback, the potential scenarios for the next year, and whether BigBear.ai truly belongs in your portfolio.

Why Is BigBear.ai Surging?

The spark for BigBear.ai’s recent surge comes from multiple sources:

New Defense Contracts: The company continues to land Department of Defense (DoD) and intelligence-focused AI contracts. These government partnerships reflect trust in BigBear.ai’s analytics capabilities and contribute to future revenue stability.

$385 Million Contract Backlog: That’s a record figure for BigBear.ai, and it suggests strong pipeline momentum. If executed efficiently, it could propel multi-quarter growth.

Leadership Overhaul: The appointment of Kevin McAleenan, former Secretary of Homeland Security, as CEO signals a renewed focus on core government customers and national security solutions.

AI Market Sentiment: Broader enthusiasm for AI stocks—driven by tech giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Palantir—has created a rising tide lifting many smaller boats like BBAI.

Financial Performance: Encouraging, But Not There Yet

In Q1 2025, BigBear.ai posted revenue of $34.8 million, a modest year-over-year increase. Though growth is positive, the company is still operating at a loss, and reported $108 million in losses in 2024. Net loss forecasts for 2025 remain negative, with projections showing a -0.41 EPS.

Despite these setbacks, the rising backlog, government ties, and improving sentiment have made investors take a second look.

Is the Stock Still Undervalued?

After the rally, BigBear.ai is trading near $6.50, still below its 52-week high of $9.50. Its valuation remains modest when compared to peers like Palantir (PLTR), which trades at far higher revenue multiples.

This leaves open the possibility that BBAI is still undervalued, particularly if it continues to convert backlog into booked revenue and narrows its losses.

Investors bullish on government-backed AI deployments are betting that BigBear.ai has enough firepower to become a significant niche player.

Risks You Shouldn't Ignore

Every opportunity has its risks—and BigBear.ai is no exception:

Profitability Issues: Without a clear path to profits, continued dilution through fundraising could impact shareholders.

Execution Delays: With a large backlog, failure to deliver on contracts or slower-than-expected onboarding could hurt revenue timelines.

AI Competition: Larger, more capitalized players like Palantir and Booz Allen Hamilton could easily outpace BBAI in both innovation and acquisition.

Federal Budget Cuts: Government spending shifts—especially under political pressure—may reduce funding for emerging AI programs.

BigBear.ai Stock in 1 Year: 3 Likely Scenarios

Here’s a look at where the stock might go over the next 12 months:

1. Bull Case: $9–$10 per Share

If the company successfully executes 60–70% of its backlog and picks up more contracts, investor momentum could push the stock to near double-digit territory. AI tailwinds and national security contracts could make BBAI a quiet winner.

2. Base Case: $6–$7 Range

The company maintains solid contract execution, but ongoing losses and lack of profitability limit major gains. Investors will remain cautiously optimistic.

3. Bear Case: $4–$5 Range

If execution stumbles, or if a broader tech correction happens, BigBear.ai could drop back to 2024 levels. This is especially true if the company continues burning cash without improving efficiency.

Key Metrics to Watch in 2025

To understand where BBAI stock is headed, investors should monitor these signals:

Backlog Conversion Rate: Are new contracts being fulfilled on time?

Quarterly Revenue Growth: Is there sustained growth beyond the $34–35 million range?

Cash Burn: Can BigBear.ai stretch its capital runway, or will it raise more equity?

New Partnerships: Announcements with other defense contractors or agencies could drive the stock upward.

Profit Margins: Even a small improvement in margin could drive bullish momentum.

Analyst Sentiment: Still Mixed

Some analysts have upgraded BBAI to a "speculative buy," citing its niche strength in defense-focused AI. Others remain cautious due to its unproven track record in scaling consistently. The company needs several consecutive quarters of clean execution to fully earn Wall Street’s trust.

Final Verdict: Should You Invest?

So, where will BigBear.ai stock be in one year? The stock has the potential to double—but also the risk of dropping significantly if execution falters. It's a classic high-risk, high-reward investment play.

For aggressive investors comfortable with volatility and focused on long-term AI potential—particularly in defense and national security—BigBear.ai could be worth accumulating gradually. For conservative investors, it may be better to watch from the sidelines until profitability is within reach.