Australia Rooftop Solar Market: Growth, Trends, Demand & Drivers

Market Overview

• The Australian rooftop solar market was valued at USD 1,436.36 million in 2024. It is expected to grow to USD 2,508.25 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of about 6.39% for the period 2025-2033.
• Drivers include strong government incentives (rebates, subsidies, certificate schemes), rising electricity costs, growing concern over grid reliability, especially in remote areas, and increasing interest in energy independence.
• The market spans residential households, small business rooftops, shared systems (e.g. apartments), and is influenced by regional differences in solar irradiance, policy, electricity price differentials, and grid constraints.

Key Trends & Market Drivers

1. Explosive Growth & Progress Toward Targets

By mid-2025, around 4.2 million Australian homes and small businesses had installed around 26.8 GW of solar across the country. This figure is 75 percent of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)'s 36 GW 2030 rooftop solar target in its latest Integrated System Plan..

2. Policy & Incentive Support

The Australian Government provides these subsidies upfront. They do so under the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) and the Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs). Another program, Cheaper Home Batteries Program, in place from 1 July 2025, provided further subsidy for solar + storage systems.

3. Battery Uptake Rising Sharply

In addition to rooftop solar installations, home batteries are being adopted at a rapid rate. Year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 was helped by rebates and programs such as the Cheaper Home Batteries program. The purpose is to smooth intermittent generation, enable self-consumption, reduce peak-grid demand, and to stabilize the grid against instability.

4. Volatility & Monthly Install Fluctuations

However, short-term variation exists. As an example, only about 225 MW of rooftop solar got installed in April 2025. This was down from previous months because of factors such as public holidays, election periods, and wait times for subsidy programs. Nonetheless, the long-term trend continues to strongly adopt. Also, in August 2025, installations dropped down to ~206 MW, continuing a year-on-year soft patch in some areas.

5. Grid Constraints & Decentralised Energy Needs

As more PV is added, some grid issues can arise (local network voltage, dispatch or export limits, line losses, etc.). Rooftop solar can also reduce the need for transmission capacity, which is meaningful in many places.

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Opportunities in the Australia Rooftop Solar Market

Solar + Storage Combinations

With battery costs coming down and government subsidies supporting combined systems, households can capture more value, reduce grid reliance, and limit bill shocks. Programs that bundle solar and storage are likely to get more uptake.

Apartment & Multi-Unit dwellings Shared Solar

Already, governments are supporting initiatives (e.g. a “Solar for Apartment Residents” program in NSW covering up to 50% of installation costs) to enable shared rooftop installations for residents who can’t install panels individually.

Technological Innovation & Panel Efficiency

New high-efficiency panels (for example, n-type all-back-contact cell technologies) are entering the market, improving power output, durability, and performance under non-ideal conditions. The Aiko Neostar 2P panels (480 W) launched in early 2025 are an example.

Regulation & Grid Integration

Better regulations for distributed energy resources (DERs), feed-in tariffs, export regimes, and inverter standards will be increasingly important. Improvements in grid management tools (DER management systems, virtual power plants) offer opportunities for smoother integration.

Cost Savings & Energy Security for Households

With rising electricity prices, many households see rooftop solar (with batteries) as a hedge. The fiscal benefits (lower bills, sometimes dividends via feed-in tariffs) are becoming more clear. Programs that reduce upfront cost or soften financing will continue to drive adoption.

Recent News & Developments (2024-2025)

Record Installations & Capacity Milestones

Australia installed ~3.2 GW of new rooftop solar capacity in 2024, a record, with 2025 tracking closely.

Rooftop Solar Generating >12% of National Electricity

In the first half of 2025, rooftop solar contributed around 12.8% of Australia’s electricity generation—up from ~11.5% a year earlier.

Cheaper Home Batteries Program Launch

As of 1 July 2025, a new government program provides a ~30% discount for battery installations in homes in conjunction with rooftop solar, via expansions to the SRES. This is accelerating battery uptake strongly.

Government Loan to Commercial Solar + Storage

The government loaned AUD $100 million via the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) to places like Bunnings and Officeworks for installing solar panels, storage, and EV chargers in their stores. This helps commercial rooftop uptake in sectors slower to adopt solar.

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For Homeowners & Small Businesses: Rooftop solar (particularly with battery storage) now saves energy costs the best, reduces dependence on centralized grids through hedges against inflation. Growth slowed in months. The greatly longer term trend reveals real savings and value during that time.

For Installers, Panels & Storage Providers: A growing market but also a growing set of expectations regarding efficiency, longevity, storage integration, good after-sales, and compliance with global, national or local targets.

For Policymakers & Regulators: Adequate stable incentives and transparent tariff/export regime policies, appropriate grid integration (voltage, export limits, inverter standards), and support for shared solar/apartment programs prevent grid stability issues or cost shifting that could drive consumers to resist further integration.

For the Environment & Energy Transition: Rooftop solar is energy generation at the edge of the distribution network, close to the consumer. It reduces losses associated with transmission, it reduces peak demand and it reduces greenhouse emissions. Rooftops will be among the most flexible, responsive tools we have as we move towards net-zero and higher renewables.