War in Ukraine, An Update

The Armed Forces of Ukraine states that Russia has just lived through the deadliest days since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, in active offensive actions; reported losses are still growing.

With almost 712,610 Russian troops lost since the start of the war and new alliances, including with countries like North Korea, the stage seems set for what could be a critical period in this conflict.

While Russia appears willing to make significant territorial gains in northeastern Ukraine, possibly for the purpose of securing strategic leverage in advance of the U.S. presidential inauguration, below is an article covering the most recent developments of the conflict, shifting battlefield dynamics, and international drivers that may influence its outcome.

Record Russian Losses and Mounting Pressure on Ukraine

On November 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces published what was arguably the highest daily Russian casualty figure to date: 1,770.

The record was surpassed the next day, November 12, with a further 1,950 Russian casualties recorded. These figures include both the killed, wounded, missing, and captured and come in line with estimates from Western military sources.

U.K. Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Anthony Radakin, this has come at a cost: Russia's strategy sacrifices troops for incremental territorial gains; in October alone, an average of 1,500 Russian troops were killed or wounded daily.

The increase in Russian casualties signifies building intensity across different fronts, with southern Ukraine having the greatest focus of forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the eastern frontlines, with Russian forces continuing their advances in Donetsk region. In this respect, according to the Ukrainian army, Russian troops have started applying new equipment to assault groups: armored vehicles, buggies, and motorcycles to enhance their assault capabilities.

The next attack in the Zaporizhzhia region could happen any day," said Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman for Ukraine's Southern Command, which would constitute a full-scale escalation in the south.

Strategic Goals: Regain Territory Before January

Beyond this frontal confrontation, Russia's military operations seem to be designed in pursuit of the larger objective of recovering, by January 20, the lost territory in Ukraine's northeastern Kursk region.

NATO intelligence estimates that this timeline opens a strategic window for Putin, possibly to seek decisive gains in order to affect the diplomatic environment and enhance Russia's negotiating position with the new U.S. administration.

Reports further reveal that to pursue these ambitions, Moscow moved 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers, to the Kursk region. This contingent, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, constitutes some of Russia's best shock units, and the stakes are high for a significant escalation in this region.

The Russian move to deploy North Korean troops on the battlefield is rather unprecedented, but recent reports tend to show that Ukrainian forces have already engaged North Korean soldiers near the border with Russia.

Moreover, British intelligence warns that Moscow might seek to ramp up kamikaze drone attacks from new launch sites along the Ukrainian border, adding another layer of threat to Ukrainian defensive positions.

The North Korea-Russia Alliance: An Unexpected Partnership

Formalization of mutual defense by North Korea and Russia has marked the latest development in such an escalation. North Korean state media, referencing the treaty signed between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscores the commitment of both nations to support each other against an armed attack. This is a major new alliance that follows Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June and the ratification of the treaty, which could have implications not just in the dynamics of the Ukrainian conflict but also on various flashpoints around the world.

Speaking after a meeting in Pyongyang last week, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui vowed support for Moscow, saying that North Korea would stand with Russia "till the day of victory." Their seeming alliance has continuously served as one point of constant unease with South Korea and other Western powers, fearing that it might further destabilize the region.

Western intelligence has warned for many years that North Korean troops could be trained in the use of sophisticated weapons systems, including ballistic missiles, possibly in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

This military alliance reportedly has already borne fruit, with North Korean troops stationed in Russia's Kursk region. Meanwhile, according to Western intelligence reports, Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with artillery shells and missiles.

Due to the fact that sanctions and military spending have strained its supply lines, the alliance has become very important to Moscow, providing a supply chain and personnel to sustain its military effort.

Western Response to the North Korea-Russia Alliance

The axis tightening between Russia and North Korea has raised a lot of eyebrows in Western diplomatic circles.

Recently, G7 nations issued a resolution against the growing military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, warning that this could destabilize Eastern Europe and East Asia. This alliance is especially of concern to the United States, as it complicates the geopolitical landscape at such a time when the U.S. is preparing for a power transition.

According to U.S. media reports, President-elect Donald Trump called Putin in the aftermath of his recent election victory to counsel restraint and caution against further escalation in Ukraine.

Although the Kremlin has not verified this conversation, it has given significant rise to speculation over what, if anything, U.S.-Russia relations might resemble under Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautiously congratulated Trump on his victory, appealing to the new administration to continue its support for Ukraine. However, he and other European leaders fear that Trump's approach to Russia could destabilize the balance in this conflict.

In a display of unity, U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer went to Paris and met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss a plan for a defense strategy for Ukraine. The leaders have both made fresh commitments to ensure Ukraine gets what it needs to see off the winter offensive and called on other NATO allies to harden up their support.

Downing Street confirmed that the U.K. and France are in close consultation on the provision of more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, including anti-drone systems, amid an increase in the use of kamikaze drones by Moscow. Soaring War and Tactical Gains The chief of British intelligence stated that, although Russia has taken greater losses, it had obtained a few "tactical and territorial gains" over recent weeks, at least in southern Donetsk and key towns like Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk.

However, Radakin also disclosed that these gains come at the "extraordinary cost" in personnel and equipment, adding that Russia's casualty rate has been growing incrementally. Total losses so far stand at more than 9,276 tanks, 18,847 armored combat vehicles, 20,352 artillery systems, and 28,870 military vehicles as of early November.

These figures give a measure of the terrible price that Russia is paying for its modest territorial gains. Human waves and relentless artillery bombardments by Moscow have enabled the latter to inch forward in key areas, leaving it vulnerable to Ukrainian counteroffensives.

What is more, the fact that Ukraine has managed to stand firm against the enemy, which outnumbered it many times, speaks volumes about the efficacy of its system of defense, marrying Western-supplied technology with well-established positions.

Winter Ahead

The next few months mark a defining moment for the Ukrainian crisis, with winter at hand and both sides ready for continuous offensives.

The strategic balance is also planned to be regained in the northeast and south directions. What ironically has displayed the readiness of Moscow for expanded reach through impossible-seeming alliances is the growing involvement of North Korean personnel and resources.

These steps are likely to depend only on the resilience of Ukrainian forces and sustained support by Western allies. This, of course, with January and a forthcoming U.S. inauguration looming, might be flipped with diplomatic dynamics changing and further altering aspects of the war. Ukraine is now facing one of the toughest phases of the conflict with the growing efforts of Russia and continued raising of stakes.

If Ukraine resists the coming onslaught, it will set the terms of power for at least the next decade of life in the region and remake the world order.

(reuters, afp,dpa)