Russia's Covert War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a complete turnaround in world geopolitics and sent ripples far beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia. 

Terrible as the war itself has been, the undercover operations taking place on European soil, largely at the behest of Moscow, expose a far more insidious face of the conflict. 

With increasing desperation, Russia has sought to undermine Western resolve through acts of sabotage, espionage, and proxy operations that are increasingly brazen, focused on destabilizing its opponents. Attacks attributed to Russian agents and their proxies have besieged Europe's security landscape.

The Growing Threat of Russian Sabotage

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the alarm has been raised within the European intelligence community that in covert activity, something big is afloat by the Russians. 

The German spy-catchers have been particularly loud with their warnings of an increase in sabotage and espionage operations on German territory. 

The heads of the most important German security agencies - among them Thomas Haldenwang, President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, or Verfassungsschutz, and Bruno Kahl, President of the Bundesnachrichtendienst, or BND - have voiced deep concern over an increased readiness by Russia to use covert means to destabilize European countries.

Haldenwang made it clear that the agents were not just spying but also preparing and conducting sabotage, which puts in danger the lives of European citizens. "We see an aggressive activity by Russian intelligence services," he said in testimony to the Bundestag. 

"The threat through Moscow's agents and their collaborators has increased, and Russia is even ready to accept risks for human life in order to achieve its goals." As Haldenwang pointed out, this increase does not stop at espionage but goes all the way across the board to cyberattacks, sabotage, and indirect hostilities on critical infrastructure all over the continent.

Sabotage in the Spotlight: The Case of Leipzig Airport

One of the most surprising acts of Russian sabotage in Europe took place in Leipzig Airport in Germany in July 2023. 

A package with an incendiary device was found in a shipment from DHL Express that had originated from Baltic States, intended to explode in flight-a sure catastrophe. Thankfully, a late aircraft receiving the shipment meant the potential very destructive attack would not happen. If loaded as scheduled onto the plane, the explosion likely would have caused it to crash with the loss of lives.

Verfassungsschutz-President Haldenwang did not hesitate to point to the seriousness of the situation: "Had this device exploded mid-flight, the consequences would have been disastrous." The plot seemed to concentrate on the sabotage of one important link in the West's support for Ukraine, namely the logistics industry. Similar packages were found in investigations in the UK and in Poland, which would seem to indicate an attempt to interfere with international supply chains.

In Lithuania, a suspect was arrested in connection with the shipment of the incendiary devices, although it is still not known who ordered the attack. The German authorities launched a full investigation; however, the connection with this incident and Russian state-backed sabotage is, for now, mere speculation. 

Regardless, it is an example of how far Russia will go to disrupt order within NATO member countries.

Wider European Impacts: Attacks in the UK, Poland, and Beyond 

With these cases, it certainly is not an isolated incident within the European context. 

Multiple incidents across Europe have been blamed on covert Russian operations through 2023. A blaze ripped through a warehouse in London that belonged to a British-Ukrainian logistics company, which had played a key role in delivering humanitarian supplies to Ukraine. 

It later emerged that the fire had been deliberate, and investigations uncovered that Russian operatives had been involved. Similar attacks were reported in Spain, where another building of the same logistics company also went up in flames.

In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk openly blamed Moscow for a fire in a shopping centre in Warsaw, the key node of the country's retail infrastructure. Tusk believed this was all part of a wider Russian operation aimed at destabilizing Poland, "to make Poland abandon further support of Ukraine." In Wrocław, a suspected Russian sabotage plot against a chemical plant had been prepared by a far-right group.

These activities have not spared the Czech Republic. In Prague, a man was arrested in connection with an attempted arson of a bus depot-a plot likely meant to further destabilize the region. The Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, did not hold himself back from linking the incident with Russian agents and underlined a growing pattern of sabotage across Europe.

The Role of "Disposable Agents" in Russian Operations

European intelligence agencies believe Russia has increasingly relied on what are called "low-level agents"-people largely untaught in espionage or sabotage who will undertake tasks for minor compensation. 

Recruitments are often made from criminal circles or among a population on the margins. Their tasks might include violent acts, or espionage, like starting fires or gathering intelligence on military supply routes. These agents are often recruited via encrypted messaging platforms like Telegram, and not professional spies, they are not schooled in the art of secrecy. 

Accordingly, their operations are more apt to be uncovered, but Moscow seems to view these "disposable agents" as its cheap way out of its covert operations problem.

British intelligence, primarily MI5, has sounded the alarm on such agents' use. Its head, Ken McCallum, called these operations increasingly reckless and warned that "Russia is using people to create sustainable chaos across Europe." McCallum underlined that such operations are, for the most part, performed by Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, in line with its long history of aggressive methods; he included in that list the poisoning of the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

MI5 Warning: Russia's Attempt to Weaken Western Resolve

Ken McCallum warned against the broader implications of Russia's undercover games in Europe. 

The main aim, according to McCallum, is to undermine the will of the West to hold firm in the current conflict in Ukraine: "The agents of Putin are striking with the misguided hope of undermining Western determination in the face of Russia's aggression," he said in a speech on national security.

While McCallum acknowledged that the expulsion of Russian diplomats from European countries reduced Russia's operational capability, he underlined the fact that the Kremlin is increasingly using proxies, including criminal elements, for the execution of its plans. Such modus operandi testifies only to Moscow's desperation while it faces growing isolation on the global arena. However, as McCallum mentioned, the British intelligence community has been watchful of many of these plots along with their European counterparts. Since the start of 2022, MI5 and other intelligence agencies have disrupted several Russian-backed operations that were designed to inflict serious harm on British citizens and destabilize Europe.

The Larger Picture: Hybrid Warfare and Russia's Changing Tactics

The increasing number of sabotage and espionage cases throughout Europe forms part of a broad approach undertaken by Russia, representing hybrid war methods. 

Hybrid war is the use of a wide range of anomalous measures such as disinformation, cyberattacks, economic pressure, and secret military activities. All of the tactics described so far come together in a full exposition of the Russian strategy in Ukraine, as territorial consolidation is blended together with the destabilization of the political and economic systems of adversaries.

Besides this, in modern times, the cyber domain has become a central battlefield, and Russian intelligence agencies have also involved themselves deeply in various cyberattacks against important infrastructures. 

Russia has been accused of conducting numerous, sophisticated cyber-attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and against NATO member states in an effort to weaken the West's responses to Russia's aggressive actions and to sow discord within NATO.

The Future of European Security

This intensification of the wave of undercover actions by Russia in Europe has far-reaching implications with respect to European security. 

In many ways, intelligence agencies all over the continent are increasingly under pressure to counter an enlarged range of threats, from cyberattacks and disinformation to the more classic forms of sabotage. These attacks targeted not only the critical infrastructure of European societies but also their very hearts and aimed at weakening the unity of NATO and the European Union in their support for Ukraine.

Whereas Russian tactics are developing, the responses from European governments and security agencies must also develop. The "disposable agents" and increasing use of criminal elements to perform covert operations involve a changing face that requires intelligence agencies to monitor and address in different ways. 

The question thus lingers as to how Europe would adapt to the shadow war being waged against it and can protect the integrity of its security apparatus from such a multi-dimensional, aggressive threat.

The conflict between Russia and the West is no more confined to the frontlines in Ukraine. The covert sabotage, espionage, and hybrid warfare currently conducted by Russia on European soil pose a severe and growing threat to the security of the continent. The fact that Russia uses "low-level agents" and other proxies indicates the evolution of this threat, which is increasingly hard to detect and counter. 

What pace and sufficiency of such a response will determine, as Europe navigates through all this, whether Europe will remain united and strong in the face of continued aggression by Russia. That is not a battle for Ukraine but a battle for the future stability of Europe itself.

(dpa, reuters)