The Disunited States.

In the world of scenario planning, the fact that something is unthinkable should not prevent us from considering it. The breakup of the Soviet Union was unthinkable almost until the day it happened. At the same time, of course, not every impossible thing will happen.

Among the most unthinkable scenarios for most Americans is the unthinkable idea that the United States could become the disunited States or turn into divided states. Even though this union accumulated very slowly in the first place, and against all odds, most Americans think the breakup is unthinkable. But it might happen. We are divided by politics, and now they are more devisive than ever. To the point of civil war.

In past decades bold American thinkers have imagined how the US might break up, but these were more thought experiments indicating the cultural differences within

the current economic instability and the general devolution of nation states around the world has led to several outsiders considering the break up of the US as a serious possibility. These scenarios come from Russians, not government policy makers, but scholarly thinkers.

In the past year or so, traffic to Dmitry Orlov’s online presentation about the ‘collapse gap‘ has soared as word of mouth recommendations about his scenario flourished. Orlov’s argument is that the parallels in the state of the USSR twenty years ago and the USA now make an economic collapse likely. Orlov does not specifically talk about breaking up as collapse. He says the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US.

Economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in. With his Soviet KGB background it may be no surprise that this scenario the breakaway “countries” all succumb to foreign influence and are not really independent. In contrast American scenarios of breakup envision the resultant countries — like the Pacifica coast — as vibrant independent influences themselves. Except it is not as clear it as that. For example, California, Oegon Washington are blue liberal states that would split up in favor of a Pacifica Coast State, but it might be a different split than what is envisioned by just number crunching Of voters. The coastal cities of the three states are populated by liberals in vastly greater numbers than the rural conservatives, but the eastern mountains and rural areas of those same states are populated by conservatives who don’t have the same values as the coastal liberals, and have a smaller population, and would not be happy to be included in a liberal country that splits away. So those states would be divided. Consequently, the break away Pacifica Coast Country would look a lot different than envisioned. This divided scenario might too be probable in the envisioned break away countries of Atlantic America and also the Texas Republic and the North American Republic.

It is certain that in the long run, the borders of the US will change. I think it is far from clear how it will change at the moment. I think the US will add something (Puerto Rico, maybe Panama Canal Zone, which has been mentioned recently) before it subtracts, but that is a minor matter. History is betting that at some point the nation as we know it will break up. It will be messy, foreign Allies will will join in the break up to secure the viability of the new breakaway republics and secure for themselves the support of the new country that is formed. It will be very interesting to watch as events unfold. But we will survive the breakup. Count on it.