American League Wild Card Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Minnesota Twins and a short first-round playoff series: Name a more iconic duo. The Twins have demonstrated exceptional performance this year, quietly accumulating the seventh-best run differential in baseball. While part of their success can be attributed to facing fellow AL Central clubs, a significant factor is their roster of talented pitchers. In the upcoming Wild Card clash, they will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays. While much attention has been given to the Blue Jays, it is crucial to recognize that the Twins are not merely the token AL Central representative; they have improved significantly when most weren't paying attention.

Though the Minnesota rotation may lack the same name recognition as other playoff teams, pitchers such as Pablo López and Sonny Gray have both ranked among the top 10 in WAR this season. Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober have also performed above average. While Ryan is expected to make the third start, the availability of the other two as relievers adds to the strength of the team. The Twins fit the archetype of a formidable playoff team that relies heavily on their exceptional pitching. López has recorded eleven games where he pitched six or more innings while allowing one run or fewer, while Gray has achieved the same feat nine times. It's quite conceivable that the Blue Jays will struggle to score runs during their visit to Minneapolis.

However, the Twins also embody the playoff trope of a team that has struggled to overcome their own obstacles. Their last playoff victory dates back to 2004, as they have suffered five series sweeps and a Wild Card game loss in the intervening years. Fortunately, the lack of predictive power in playoff mojo provides a glimmer of hope for the Twins. It's worth noting that in baseball, it's always possible to identify potential pitfalls. While López and Gray have had numerous outstanding starts, they have also combined to allow four or more runs on twelve occasions and pitch fewer than five innings seventeen times. The difference between great and mediocre pitching can sometimes be as simple as the start of the day. Against strong major league opposition like the Blue Jays, the margins become incredibly narrow.

As a result, Minnesota's bullpen may come into play earlier than desired, which could give cause for concern. Their bullpen's WAR totals ranked among the worst among playoff-bound teams. However, despite this foreboding statistic, I believe the bullpen is not a hindrance; it might even serve as an asset. Many of their bullpen issues stemmed from players who are no longer part of the team. For example, Jorge López struggled before being traded to Miami, and Josh Winder had ineffective outings. Players such as Brent Headrick, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, José De León, Jorge Alcala, and Oliver Ortega received significant bullpen innings but were both poor performers and no longer occupy bullpen spots.

Presently, the top five members of the bullpen are all above-average relievers. Jhoan Duran leads the way with his unique 100 mph splitter/sinker hybrid, steering the ship confidently. Caleb Thielbar, despite missing a substantial portion of time due to injury, has proven more than capable in the middle innings since his return. Louie Varland has exhibited dominance since transitioning to relief pitching, boasting an impressive 17 strikeouts with only one walk across twelve innings. Emilio Pagán serves as a reliable setup man, while even Griffin Jax has thrived recently, despite being squeezed on the depth chart due to the aforementioned pitchers being displaced. Consequently, when the Twins can shorten their bullpen, it ceases to be a weakness and may even become a strength.

Now, one might assume that the Twins' offense is their greatest weakness. However, this isn't entirely accurate. The team initially struggled offensively during the first half of the season, possessing the 20th-best wRC+ among all major league teams at the All-Star break. Among playoff teams, only the Brewers fared worse. Nonetheless, the Twins have emerged as the third-best hitting team in the league during the second half of the season, bolstered by a combination of overlooked veterans and promising rookies.

Take Max Kepler, for instance. Finally, he is delivering on the long-held expectations with a 124 wRC+, driven by his customary power and the best BABIP season of his career (.289, despite being unlucky with hits). Ryan Jeffers is enjoying his finest season in the majors thus far. Jorge Polanco consistently performs at a high level (as he does every year) and remains underappreciated. To maximize offensive output, Polanco has even adjusted positions defensively, primarily residing at third base. Alex Kirilloff is now fulfilling the power potential he has consistently promised, primarily in a platoon role. Even Donovan Solano, who is miscast at first base due to his height of 5-foot-8, has provided valuable contributions with his hitting prowess.

The younger players have exceeded expectations as well. Royce Lewis, entering the season with a mere 41 career major league plate appearances, has displayed remarkable growth and potential thanks to his unyielding dedication to training and development.