Texas vs. Oklahoma Preview: Predictions, Odds, and Top Picks for the Red River Rivalry

Texas vs. Oklahoma Preview: Predictions, Odds, and Top Picks for the Red River Rivalry

The highly anticipated 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry is set for this weekend, featuring a showdown between top-ranked Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma at the iconic Cotton Bowl. With Texas holding a historical advantage in the rivalry at 63-51-5, recent meetings have been closer, with Oklahoma claiming victory in seven of the last ten games. Notably, Texas suffered a 34-30 loss to Oklahoma in 2023, marking its only regular-season defeat. However, this came after Texas delivered a dominating 49-0 shutout over the Sooners in 2022.

This year, Oklahoma finds itself as a significant underdog, facing a potential slow start due to changes in their lineup, including injuries and a new quarterback. Texas, on the other hand, enters the game with a clearer path to victory and a strong team outlook.

Texas Outlook

The big news for Texas is the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers. After missing more than two games with a strained oblique, Ewers is back in the starting lineup. While backup quarterback Arch Manning admirably stepped in during Ewers' absence and led the Longhorns to consecutive wins, head coach Steve Sarkisian is confident in putting Ewers back at the helm.

Ewers brings a wealth of experience, having played in two previous Red River Rivalry games. His familiarity with the intensity of this matchup makes him a reliable option for Texas. The team is also in excellent form, ranking second in Adjusted Expected Points Added (EPA) at +0.54, according to Game On Paper. In contrast, Oklahoma sits at 49th with a much lower EPA of +0.08.

Additionally, Texas ranks fifth in Net Yards per Play with a robust +3.15, while Oklahoma lags behind at 93rd, with a negative -0.30. These statistics highlight the significant yardage gap that Oklahoma must overcome, which could make things difficult for them even if their defense puts up a strong performance.

Oklahoma Outlook

Oklahoma, unfortunately, enters this game in a tough spot with numerous key injuries and uncertainties in their lineup. Their top wide receiver, Deion Burks, is out due to a soft-tissue injury. Burks, a junior who transferred from Purdue, leads the team in receiving touchdowns (three), yardage (201), and receptions (26). His absence will be felt, along with other injured wide receivers such as Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony, and Jayden Gibson. Farooq had a standout performance last year with 130 receiving yards against Texas, while Anderson caught the game-winning touchdown in 2023.

The Sooners' wide receiver room is so thin that they’ve had to convert some defensive backs to play offense just to fill in the gaps. On top of that, Oklahoma will be starting its third quarterback of the season after Dillon Gabriel left for Oregon and head coach Brent Venables benched Jackson Arnold in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.

Hawkins, the first true freshman quarterback to start a Red River Rivalry game, will face immense pressure. While turnovers were a major factor in the quarterback switch, there’s concern about how Hawkins will handle the intensity of this storied rivalry, especially without several of his top receiving weapons.

Oklahoma’s running game doesn’t provide much support either. The team ranks 94th in Expected Points Added per Attempt (-0.04) and an alarming 124th in Rushing Success Rate (32.9%). These numbers suggest that Oklahoma’s ground game won’t be able to relieve much pressure off their inexperienced quarterback.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction

With Oklahoma facing such a depleted offense and their new quarterback thrust into action without his top targets, the team will need time to adjust and find a rhythm. Hawkins will have to avoid turning the ball over, as any early mistakes could spell disaster for the Sooners. However, given the inexperience at quarterback and the lack of available offensive firepower, Oklahoma could struggle to keep pace with Texas early on.

For Texas, the return of Quinn Ewers provides stability and confidence. Ewers has already proven himself in previous matchups against Oklahoma, and Texas is riding high with its impressive rankings in key performance metrics. Given these factors, Texas seems poised to capitalize on Oklahoma's struggles.

The best bet for this game is likely to fade Oklahoma, particularly in the first half. With so many key offensive players missing and a freshman quarterback under center, Oklahoma’s ability to stay competitive early on looks doubtful. Texas has a clear advantage in nearly every aspect of the game, and this could lead to a strong first-half performance for the Longhorns.

In conclusion, while Oklahoma's history in the Red River Rivalry shows they can never be completely counted out, the odds are stacked against them this year. Texas, with a healthier and more experienced squad, should be able to take control early, making them the safer pick for this year’s clash.