Shedeur Sanders and the 2025 NFL Draft: A New Chapter Begins

There is no single event on the hype-infused NFL calendar that lends itself more fully to the concept of overreaction than the draft. Just about every pick is examined as a make-or-break decision for the franchise that makes it, regardless of all the historical data about hit rates and any reminders issued about reining in expectations.

This year, though ... this year has been special. The 2025 draft featured an entire sub-industry of overreaction around one particular player who ended up being the 144th pick.

When Round 1 passed Thursday night and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was still on the board, Friday's NFL discourse became all about why. When the second and third rounds ended Friday night and Sanders still hadn't been drafted, the discourse was on fire. Was this private? Has the Sanders camp handled the process incorrectly to the point where teams are reluctant to take him? Five quarterbacks went in the first three rounds. Dillon Gabriel, who was ranked No. 217 overall by ESPN's Scouts Inc., was one of them. It had to be something, right? At last, the Browns ended our long national nightmare when they traded up to take Sanders with the sixth pick of the fifth round. Cleveland had long seemed like a good place for Sanders to go, but since the Browns were the team that took Gabriel in the third round, there was some doubt about whether Sanders was still a possibility on Saturday. Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Sanders, Gabriel, and Kenny Pickett are now in Cleveland's quarterback lineup. That's three rookies and two first-round picks, which is kind of amazing when you think about it. Veteran Kirk Cousins, who remains on the Falcons' roster as a very expensive projected backup to Michael Penix Jr., has also been considered a potential trade target for the Browns. It remains to be seen how this all plays out, but at least Sanders knows where he can work and attempt to demonstrate to the NFL that he is superior to the No. 144 pick. He also gets the privilege of kicking off our annual draft overreactions column:

By Saturday, Shedeur Sanders would have been better off going undrafted

On Saturday morning, after Sanders was not selected in the first three rounds, I heard this sentiment from multiple NFL players. He would have been able to choose his own team and negotiate his own contract if he had not been selected. The 144th pick in the draft last year signed a $4.369 million contract for four years. Because they sign three-year contracts, undrafted players can enter free agency earlier than drafted players. Had Sanders not been drafted Saturday, he could have steered his way to a place where he could compete for the starting job and, if he won it and played well, could have been in position for a big-money extension two years from now. There are players and agents who, when they reach the sixth and seventh rounds of the draft each year, begin to hope they are not selected because going undrafted gives them more freedom.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

It's certainly an intriguing concept. And I probably would have agreed with it if Sanders had been selected by a team like the Chargers, Bengals, or Chiefs, who already had established starting quarterbacks. However, Sanders has a chance to compete for and win the starting position right away in Cleveland. It's possible that Watson won't play much, if at all, this season after having another surgery on his right Achilles tendon. If Sanders is the pro-ready prospect he claims to be, it shouldn't be difficult to unseat Flacco, Pickett, and Gabriel. This is a young man who, because of the family into which he was born and the way his career has been curated so far, has not known life as any kind of underdog. We've seen a lot of quarterbacks and players at other positions who have used their draft losses as fuel and motivation, so it's unclear how he'll handle it. The Browns give Sanders a chance to make a lot of people look stupid if he can do that.

Drafting Jaxson Dart will save the jobs of Giants coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen -- at least for one year

After conducting a comprehensive and in-depth evaluation of the field, the Giants decided that Dart was their favorite quarterback in this draft (aside from Cam Ward) and traded up in the first round to acquire him. Dart doesn't have to start right away; the Giants signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for that reason. Daboll now has the chance to coach and develop the quarterback of his choice after finally getting out of the Daniel Jones pick/extension mess. It stands to reason that the Giants will want to give Daboll and Schoen enough time with Dart in 2025 to see if he can be their quarterback of the future, regardless of whether he plays Week 1, Week 9, or not at all.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

It is a reasonable conclusion to draw, and it is possible that this is the case. But history tells us drafting a first-round quarterback is absolutely no guarantee of job security. Both Jerod Mayo (Patriots) and Matt Eberflus (Bears) were head coaches of teams that selected quarterbacks in the first round at this time last year. (Before you bring that up, their offensive coordinators are also.) Frank Reich (Panthers), Urban Meyer (Jaguars), Matt Nagy (Bears, again), Anthony Lynn (Chargers), Pat Shurmur (Giants), Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson (Browns), Todd Bowles (Jets), and Steve Wilks (Cardinals) all left their positions within a year of selecting a quarterback in the first round, and that list only includes quarterbacks selected in 2018 and later. The Daboll/Dart connection might very well be what resurrects the Giants franchise. The coach and the QB both appear to have the talent to make it work. But if 2025 goes badly, there's plenty of recent history that tells us hope for the future isn't enough to save a coach's job.

Travis Hunter is the best thing that could have happened to Trevor Lawrence

The Jaguars have a new coach and GM, and the bold trade up for Hunter on the first night of the draft signals an aggressive approach with the goal of changing the fortunes of a team that picks in the top five way, way, way too often. However, despite the fact that general manager James Gladstone and coach Liam Coen have the authority to make a number of changes, they are essentially bound to Lawrence's contract, which includes fully guaranteed payments of $37 million in 2026 and $29 million in 2027. So the reason to pick Hunter, the two-way star out of Colorado whom they can deploy as both a wide receiver and a cornerback, is at least partly to provide more passing-game help for Lawrence, along with brilliant 2024 first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Lawrence might not have delivered on his stratospheric promise just yet -- he has thrown 69 touchdown passes and 46 interceptions in his first four seasons -- but he's far from a lost cause. Even though he turns 26 in October, He needs to get and stay consistently healthy, and it's tough to see how Hunter can help with that. Assuming Lawrence is on the field, he should enjoy having Hunter as a reliable downfield target.

Plus, to whatever extent the face-of-the-franchise pressure that comes with being a No. 1 pick and getting a $55 million-per-year contract extension has affected Lawrence, Hunter will help with that too.

Given how special a player Hunter is, and the likelihood that his two-way abilities will captivate the league and the Jaguars' fan base, he has a good chance to become the most talked-about player on the team in short order. He might be the kind of attention vacuum that relieves some of Lawrence's pressure to save the franchise.

The Steelers blew it by not drafting a quarterback before Round 6

Given their obvious need for a quarterback and the fact that only one had been selected at the time, many were surprised when the Steelers selected defensive tackle Derrick Harmon with the No. 21 pick. Because they had traded their second-round pick for DK Metcalf, they didn't pick again until the 19th pick of the third round. By that time, only two more quarterbacks had been chosen. There, running back Kaleb Johnson was their choice. In the fourth round, Pittsburgh took edge rusher Jack Sawyer, and in the fifth, it took defensive tackle Yahya Black.

The Steelers did not select a quarterback until they selected Will Howard with the ninth pick of the sixth round because the franchise was still waiting for an answer from veteran free agent Aaron Rodgers and the only quarterbacks on the roster were Skylar Thompson and Mason Rudolph. You can say, "But Tom Brady," and Howard may mature into something, but Backup Country is pick No. 185.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

I just can't rip the Steelers for not forcing a quarterback. When they selected Kenny Pickett in the first round of a draft in which no other quarterbacks were selected before the third round, they did exactly that three years earlier. They are in their current quarterback dilemma in large part due to whipping on Pickett. If there had been a guy there at No. 21 -- or even at No. 83 -- whom they truly believed in as their long-term franchise QB, they should absolutely have taken him. But it's clear that there wasn't, and the Steelers have repeatedly told us that they think they can still fix the position before the season starts. They continue to believe that Rodgers is a good match for them. If they don't get him, they could ring up the Falcons and ask about Kirk Cousins. Rudolph is a player they like a lot more than people outside of their building seem to, and they point to the fact that he helped rescue their season and lead them to the playoffs just two years ago.

If they can patch the 2025 season together with some combination of Rodgers/Cousins/Rudolph-type veterans, it's possible that they can fix the long-term issue in a year. Next year's draft quarterback class is expected to be richer in talent than this year's class. Everyone has the Steelers in mind. We are aware that they will devise a strategy to win more games than they lose.

Kirk Cousins is stuck in Atlanta for one more year

After signing for $100 million in guaranteed money with the Falcons in free agency last year, Cousins was stunned when Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Cousins' poor performance and the Falcons' late-season slide led to him being benched for Penix, who is Atlanta's projected starting quarterback for 2025.

The team did not release Cousins ahead of free agency and has said publicly it's comfortable with him being Penix's backup. Privately, the Falcons have entertained trade proposals from other teams but have so far insisted on acquiring teams picking up a significant portion of the $37.5 million in guaranteed money still remaining on his contract, and that's a big reason he hasn't been dealt.

With free agency and now the draft having come and gone, it's fair to wonder whether Cousins will end up being traded this offseason or whether he'll have to wait until next spring to get loose from his current situation.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

It isn't over yet! A man is still needed by the Steelers. Maybe the Browns aren't done collecting QBs. It's possible that the Colts successfully complete the OTAs and are unhappy with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. Somebody, somewhere could get hurt in minicamp and open up a spot.

Even if the Falcons offered Cousins a deal, he wouldn't sign it until after the draft because he didn't want the same thing to happen to him this year as it did last year. His contract has a full no-trade clause. He and Atlanta can regroup now that the draft is over to see if there is anything that makes sense. It's still possible there is.

Caleb Williams is going to be in the MVP conversation this season

Williams, who was selected first overall in the draft the previous year, led the Bears through a difficult 2024 campaign that resulted in the early termination of coach Matt Eberflus. Chicago was the only team in its division to miss the playoffs, going 5-12. The Bears hired offensive coordinator Ben Johnson away from division-rival Detroit to be their coach and hopefully find a way to get the best out of Williams in 2025 and moving forward. In free agency, they immediately strengthened their offensive line's interior. Additionally, they selected offensive players with their first three picks in this draft. It is clear that the objective is to make Williams' life easier as he develops and to challenge for a playoff spot in the league's toughest division.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

While Johnson is obviously unproven as a head coach, he has established himself as one of the league's most creative and effective offensive play-designers and playcallers. D.J., one of the Bears' wide receivers, was already an effective pass-catching option. Moore and Rome Odunze, tight end Cole Kmet, and running back D'Andre Swift were selected in the first two rounds of this draft, along with wide receiver Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland. For good measure, they used the second of their two second-round picks on offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo.

If the protection holds up, Williams is going to have a ton of places he can go with the ball on any particular play, and with Johnson drawing the plays up, this could be as exciting an offense as there is in the league. There's always a team that goes from last place to first place in its division from one year to the next.

And while the presence of the Lions, Vikings and Packers in their division might well prevent the Bears from being that, if they improve enough to contend for a playoff spot, it'll probably be because Williams and all of those offensive targets have lit up the scoreboard week in and week out.

WRITTED BY ME