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Unveiling Probabilities: Marilyn Musava and the Monty Hall Puzzle

Challenging Minds, Defying Odds, and Redefining Probability in the Monty Hall Problem

By Magoola IsaacPublished 3 years ago 3 min read
Unveiling Probabilities: Marilyn Musava and the Monty Hall Puzzle
Photo by Scott Blake on Unsplash

Imagine being a contestant on a thrilling game show, where your fate hangs on the choices you make. Three doors stand before you, concealing what lies beyond. One door holds a luxurious car, while the other two hide mischievous ghosts. Your task is to select a door to open, and let the game begin.

You trust your instincts and opt for the first door. But wait! The show's host, who knows the whereabouts of the car, decides to add some suspense. With a mischievous smile, they open a different door, revealing a goat lurking behind it. Now, a crucial decision awaits you: stick with your initial choice or switch to the remaining door.

As the tension mounts, the question arises: does changing your choice increase your chances of winning the coveted car? This mind-boggling puzzle is known as the Monty Hall problem, named after the host who created this perplexing situation.

When presented with this conundrum, Ph.Ds and mathematicians argue that switching doors makes no difference. They claim that regardless of the door you initially chose, the odds remain the same after the host's reveal—a 50-50 chance of success.

However, an extraordinary woman named Marilyn Wusevan challenged this widely accepted belief. With an astounding IQ of 228, she proved that sometimes the simplest solution is not the correct one. When asked about the Monty Hall problem in her Sunday column, Marilyn confidently advocated for switching doors.

But her response ignited a firestorm of criticism. Angry letters poured in, with mathematicians and Ph.Ds condemning her answer as a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. Undeterred, Marilyn penned a thought-provoking rebuttal defending her stance on the odds of winning.

To drive her point home, Marilyn presented different scenarios to consider. Imagine there are three doors, with the car hidden behind one and goats behind the others. If you stick to your initial choice, you only have a one-third chance of success. However, if you switch doors, your chances of winning increase to two-thirds. Marilyn demonstrated that switching maximizes your likelihood of driving away with the car.

To further clarify her point, Marilyn proposed an even more expansive scenario. Picture a staggering one million doors, with the car hiding behind just one. You make your first choice, and then the host opens all but one door—door number 777—revealing goats behind them. Now, with only two doors left, door number 1 and door number 777, the odds heavily favor switching to door number 777. It's a clear illustration of how probabilities can change when more information becomes available.

But who is this remarkable woman who challenged esteemed professors and mathematicians across the nation? Marilyn Musava, born on August 11th, 1946, in Missouri, possesses an intellect that surpasses all expectations. Descending from a lineage of brilliant minds, she displayed her extraordinary intelligence at a young age, scoring an incredible 228 on her IQ test at just ten years old.

Despite her exceptional abilities, Marilyn's parents opted to keep her genius under wraps, allowing her to lead a normal life. Her passion for writing ignited during her teenage years, and she became a regular contributor to local newspapers, using pseudonyms to conceal her true identity. Financial security came through her knack for investments, enabling her to pursue a full-time writing career.

In 1985, Marilyn's IQ scores were obtained by the Guinness Book of World Records from the exclusive Mega Society, a society comprising individuals with one-in-a-million intelligence. This revelation thrust Marilyn into the spotlight, garnering widespread media attention. With her newfound fame, Marilyn seized the opportunity to write her own column, "Ask Marilyn," where she tackled tricky questions, solved riddles, and fearlessly shared her own

In her illustrious column, Marilyn continued to astound readers with her sharp intellect and unique perspectives on various puzzles and conundrums. The Monty Hall problem and the probability of the beagle's gender were just two of the many mind-bending dilemmas she masterfully dissected.

Over the span of more than three decades, Marilyn's column became a trusted source for those seeking intellectual stimulation and an avenue to challenge their own cognitive abilities. She gracefully weathered the storm of criticism and remained steadfast in her unwavering belief that probabilities could indeed shift, sometimes defying conventional wisdom.

Now, at 76 years old, Marilyn still carries the torch of her column, inviting readers to submit their perplexing queries and offering her insightful and thought-provoking responses. She has become a symbol of intellectual curiosity, reminding us to question assumptions, embrace the unexpected, and explore the realms of probability.

Marilyn Musava, the woman who fearlessly challenged the mathematical establishment and carved her own path, continues to inspire generations with her extraordinary intellect, unwavering determination, and the enduring power of her remarkable mind.

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About the Creator

Magoola Isaac

Passionate writer who believes words can change the world. Constantly exploring new ideas, experimenting with different styles. Enjoys music, movies, and reading. Dedicated to craft, hopes to make a positive impact.

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