A Stage-Managed Vote: Inside Myanmar’s Junta-Controlled Election Process

The Announcement of a Second Phase

The State Administration Council (SAC), Myanmar’s military government, recently conducted the second phase of its planned elections. The voting took place in several townships across Shan, Rakhine, and Chin States. This phase follows an initial round held in late 2023. The military administration states the process is a necessary step to restore what it calls "genuine and disciplined democracy." It frames the elections as the culmination of its five-point roadmap, presented after it seized power from the civilian government in February 2021.

A Process Met With Widespread Rejection

The election exercise has been met with almost universal rejection outside of junta-controlled circles. Governments, including the United States, United Kingdom, and members of the European Union, have condemned the process. The United Nations has stated the conditions for credible elections do not exist. The National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar's parallel civilian administration formed by ousted lawmakers and activists, calls the vote an "illegitimate sham." Many ethnic political parties have also chosen to boycott the process entirely.

The Climate of Fear and Conflict

Conducting an election during an active civil war presents significant challenges. Large portions of Myanmar, particularly rural areas, are active conflict zones where the military, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) engage in daily fighting. The junta does not have administrative or security control over these territories. This reality restricts voting to areas firmly under military command, such as parts of major cities, military base townships, and some urban centers. Critics argue this makes the result a foregone conclusion, representing only the will of a small, secure fraction of the population.

Control Over the Political Landscape

The military has taken legal steps to shape the political field. Its election commission has dissolved major opposition parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide victory in the 2020 election. New, stringent registration rules have disqualified countless potential candidates. The laws favor parties aligned with the military's vision. Furthermore, security forces have arrested, threatened, or intimidated potential opposition candidates and their supporters for years, creating an atmosphere where genuine campaigning is impossible.

The Question of Voter Participation

Official turnout figures released by the junta are difficult to verify independently. State media shows images of people casting ballots. However, reports from inside Myanmar suggest participation is heavily managed. In many areas, civil servants, military personnel, and their families are pressured or compelled to vote. For ordinary citizens, the choice is often between participating in a process they view as illegitimate or risking official reprisal. Many residents in conflict zones report having no access to polling stations or being unaware the election was even occurring.

The Goal of Military Legitimacy

Analysts state the primary objective of the election is not to gauge public will but to create a facade of legitimacy. The military has governed Myanmar for most of its post-independence history. Its previous constitution, ratified in 2008, guarantees it control of key ministries and 25% of seats in parliament, granting it an effective veto. The current election is seen as an attempt to install a civilian government that operates within this military-drafted framework, thereby allowing the generals to claim a transition to democratic rule has been completed, even while retaining ultimate power.

The Response of the Resistance Movement

The resistance movement, comprising the NUG and PDFs, has actively sought to disrupt the electoral process. They have called for a complete boycott. In the lead-up to both phases of voting, there were reports of attacks on individuals involved in election preparation, including administrators and potential candidates aligned with the junta. Leaflets and social media campaigns from resistance groups warn the population that participating lends credibility to the military regime. They view any engagement with the process as a betrayal of the revolutionary movement that began after the 2021 coup.

International Diplomacy and Inaction

The international response has been largely confined to statements of condemnation. ASEAN, which has a "Five-Point Consensus" on Myanmar, has effectively sidelined the junta from high-level meetings but has failed to unify behind stronger action. UN Security Council resolutions have been blocked by China and Russia. While some Western nations have imposed targeted sanctions on junta officials and military-linked businesses, these measures have not altered the regime's behavior. This diplomatic stalemate has allowed the military to proceed with its political roadmap with little direct external interference.

The Human Rights Context

The election is being held against a backdrop of severe and widespread human rights abuses documented by the UN and independent groups. These include aerial bombardments of civilian areas, mass arson campaigns, and extrajudicial killings. Over 2.5 million people are internally displaced. The military stands accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Critics argue that holding an election while such a campaign of violence is ongoing is not just illogical but deeply cynical, an attempt to divert international attention from its atrocities.

A Contrast with 2020

The current process stands in stark contrast to the 2020 general election, which international observers, while noting flaws, considered broadly credible. That election saw high voter turnout and resulted in a decisive victory for the NLD. The military's refusal to accept those results, based on unsubstantiated claims of fraud, led directly to the coup. The present election, conducted without major opposition parties, under martial law, and in the midst of war, is seen as the antithesis of that earlier vote.

The Road Ahead for Myanmar

The completion of the election is unlikely to bring stability or legitimacy to the military regime. Instead, it is expected to deepen the country's crisis. The resistance has vowed to continue its fight against any government formed under the junta's rules. Ethnic armed organizations continue to make significant territorial gains. For the majority of Myanmar's people, the election is an irrelevance, overshadowed by the daily struggles for security, food, and survival. The political divide is no longer between competing parties at a ballot box, but between a military seeking to validate its rule and a population seeking to overthrow it.

Conclusion: An Exercise in Power, Not Democracy

Myanmar's staged election is better understood as an administrative exercise for the junta than a democratic one for the populace. It is a controlled process designed to produce a predetermined outcome: a parliament and government that exists under the military's oversight. While the SAC may present the formation of a new government as the end of the post-coup transition, for the people of Myanmar and the international community that rejects the process, it represents only a consolidation of authoritarian rule. The fundamental conflict over the nation's future will continue to be decided not by ballots in a limited number of townships, but by the ongoing political and armed struggle across the country.