Military Space Plane Launch Risks International Conflict

When I was in university, I remember the excitement my housemates and I felt about the very first space shuttle launch. Columbia lifted off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in April 1981.

It was the world’s first reusable orbiter, and we were fascinated by its ability to land on a runway like an airplane. Unlike the incredibly costly, disposable, rockets with which we were familiar, the space shuttles could fly at least 100 missions each.

The five space shuttles, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavour, were NASA’s workhorses for three decades. Once they’d finished building the International Space Station, NASA didn’t need them to transport astronauts back and forth, so their days were numbered.

Reusable, Robotic Orbital Test Vehicle

Having said that, there’s one notable exception. The US Space Force operates a reusable, robotic, military space plane called the Boeing X-37 that, like the shuttle, lands on runways in California or Florida.

The X-37 is a successor to those original space shuttles. It has a very similar shape and configuration. However, at 9 metres in length, it’s only a quarter the size.

In fact, you could fit both X-37Bs into the original space shuttle’s cargo bay. The military space plane’s payload bay is roughly the size of a pickup truck’s bed.

Space Force Maintains Two Military Space Planes

The Space Force maintains two of the military space plane’s latest iteration, the X-37B. They store them in what used to be a space shuttle hangar at the Kennedy Space Center. 

The X-37B serves as a test bed for avionics and advanced sensors, evaluates reusable spacecraft components, and provides a platform for experiments that can be returned to Earth for analysis.

This week, the military space plane blasted off from the Kennedy Space Center, boosted by a Falcon Heavy rocket. This is the X-37B’s seventh flight since 2010.

Missions Involve Extremely Long Flights

These missions involve extremely long flights, often lasting more than two years. Over the course of just seven years, the X-37B has spent over ten years in orbit.

Although its mission is classified, observers speculate that this uncrewed mission will also last at least two years. All the Space Force tells us is that the military space plane’s flight is part of the National Security Space Launch Program and that it’s conducting experiments.

The Space Force is very tight-lipped about why it has these two military space planes and what they’re for. We do know that part of its mission cargo this time around is a NASA radiation experiment.

NASA Experiments Study Radiation and Plant Seeds

The scientists behind that experiment want to study how radiation in outer space affects plant seeds. Crewed missions to Mars and perhaps other solar system destinations will need a food supply, and NASA is interested in the possibility of crop cultivation aboard spacecraft.

The Space Force used the more powerful Falcon Heavy rocket instead of the usual Atlas as the X-37B’s booster. This is prompting experts to speculate that the military space plane’s mission may involve entering a geostationary, high-Earth orbit at 35,000 km.

All of the X-37B’s previous missions have been in low-Earth orbit. Those orbits involve altitudes of just 2,000 km or even less.

Orbit Used for Communication, Weather or Spy Satellites

This type of orbit is typically used for communication, weather or spy satellites that need a line of sight to a specific Earth location. The Space Force doesn’t’t seem interested in discussing that.

It may very well be that the military space plane’s orbit positions it to spy on a specific location. Some stargazers have been spying on the military space plane with ground-based telescopes, and some of them suggest it might be using high-tech spy gear to monitor the Middle East or Afghanistan.

The Space Force has told the press that this mission entails “new orbital regimes, experimenting with future space domain awareness technologies.” That seems to be just enough information to fuel even more speculation.

“Maybe This Thing’s Going to Go Out Toward the Moon"

Bob Hall is the director of space traffic monitoring for the private satellite tracking software developer COMSPOC. He told Reuters, ”Maybe this thing's going to go out toward the moon and drop off a payload.”

Then again, maybe not. That’s pure speculation, and it would require an extremely eccentric orbit and a very demanding return to Earth for the military space plane.

There’s a wild card in all of this. China launched a remarkably similar military space plane called Shenlong a couple of weeks ago.

China Launched Similar Military Space Plane

The US Space Force interprets this move by China as competitive. As General B. Chance Saltzman told a news conference in early December, “These are two of the most watched objects on orbit while they're on orbit. It's probably no coincidence that they're trying to match us in timing and sequence of this," 

The Chinese are extremely suspicious of the US Space Force and of the X-37B. They worry that the US could use its military space plane as an orbital bomber, or to attack China’s satellites.

The Chinese Communist Party interprets the secrecy and the vague descriptions of the X-37B as doublespeak. They believe the US is using those explanations as a cover story for space weapons development.

Every Reason to Suspect Space Weapons Development

Of course, there’s every reason to suspect that China is planning the same thing, or something equally sinister. For example, Carlos Alatarre, writing in The Space Review, suggests that Shenlong could be used as a co-orbital anti-satellite (ASAT) platform.

The goal of space exploration should be to uncover the new story we all need to make sense of the universe and our place within it. This tense competition between today’s superpowers is a flashback to the Space Race and the Cold War.

That’s the last thing humanity needs. Dr. Aaron Bateman is an assistant professor of history and international affairs at George Washington University. He’s a member of the Space Policy Institute, and he’s also served as a U.S. Air Force intelligence officer.

And Another Thing…

Professor Bateman published an article recently in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. He concluded it saying.

“The task for policymakers now is to devote their energies to finding ways to reduce at least two types of risks: the first being the daily hazards associated with conducting space operations; and the second relating to the risk of misperception, miscalculation, and misunderstanding which may cause inadvertent escalation or even conflict in space.”

We always have more to learn if we dare to know.

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