Aliens Could Be on Their Way to Earth

The universe contains hundreds of billions of galaxies, trillions of stars, and even more planets. If even a small fraction of these planets are habitable, then the universe should be teeming with life. Yet, we see nothing but vast emptiness. Where is everyone else? The answer to this riddle could be as exciting as it is creepy. We may be early born before almost all other life, but soon this might change. Not only might aliens appear, but they could quickly surround us, starting an irreversible competition for the universe.

While these ideas are based on scientific papers, they present interesting concepts with limited data and much extrapolation. Therefore, take them with a grain of salt. To understand this galactic competition, we need to address three essential questions:

1. How quickly can bacteria develop spaceships to become a star-faring civilization?

2. How many steps does life need to pass to give rise to a technological civilization, and how long do these steps take?

3. Why does Humanity exist now, and what might the future hold?

Life on Earth evolved from single cells to multicellular organisms over billions of years. However, the development of culture, civilization, and space travel occurred relatively quickly. The timing of these events may suggest that we are a rare exception in the Milky Way, possibly among the first technological civilizations. The current hospitable conditions for life on Earth may be a result of the universe's age and the timing of our existence. In the future, as our sun grows brighter and eventually engulfs Earth, red dwarf stars may sustain habitable planets for trillions of years, providing ample time for life to evolve into technological civilizations. Humanity's expansion into space and potential to become a galactic civilization may be driven by our innate curiosity, expansionist nature, and quest for energy. If these motivations persist, we could witness the construction of Dyson swarms for infinite energy, colonization of distant planets, and the emergence of a galactic civilization. A civilization engaging in such activities can be labeled as "loud" due to the noticeable signs of their actions, which can be detected from great distances. Picture an individual in a forest cutting down trees, starting fires, and constructing roads - the more vigorous their efforts, the more easily they can be spotted. An advancing technological civilization would likely be highly conspicuous; our telescopes would capture the abundant energy they emit, clearly indicating artificial interference with stars and planets. Another repercussion of these actions is the significant disruption to the environment; deforestation results in the loss of wildlife, eliminating the possibility of a civilization of squirrels emerging. Similarly, if loud civilizations were active throughout the galaxy in the past, transforming planets or harnessing star energy, they may have impeded our existence. Had extraterrestrials begun colonizing Earth while we were still in the early stages of evolution, humans may never have come into being. This illustrates how loud aliens establish a time limit for the emergence of new civilizations in the galaxy. While the universe may have trillions of years to foster life, there could be only a brief window for it to flourish. Even if a loud civilization respects planets with existing life and expands around them, similar to how humans treat wildlife reserves, any civilization on such a planet would be confined, unable to expand and forever trapped on a small island. Conversely, quiet aliens, limited to a single star system and exerting minimal impact on their cosmic surroundings, would not be a concern. Currently, humanity falls into this category - undetectable from the far reaches of the Milky Way. If silent civilizations persist indefinitely, possibly due to cultural or technological constraints, they pose no threat to us. With only one example to draw from - humanity - and our trajectory pointing towards becoming loud, any civilization with the means and desire to expand beyond their planet of origin would likely do so eventually. The implications of these suppositions and concepts are profound. If we are among the first civilizations to emerge, others will inevitably catch up, leading to civilizations emerging across the cosmos. These new aliens, observing a barren galaxy devoid of life, may reach the same conclusion - that they exist because loud civilizations have not yet dominated everything. However, it only takes one loud civilization to overshadow all others in the galaxy. Faced with this scenario, they must decide whether to remain quiet and insular, or to expand and stake a claim in the galaxy before competitors arrive. Encountering other civilizations does not guarantee conflict, but it will define new boundaries, potentially lasting indefinitely. In a worst-case scenario, a civilization might find itself completely encircled by the dominions of others, condemned to perpetual obscurity without any control over their destiny. To secure a place at the table of galactic governance, we must act swiftly. If we are indeed early in the cosmic timeline, we have a unique opportunity to shape thousands, or even millions, of planets according to our aspirations. When we eventually encounter other beings, we can welcome them as equals, having molded the galaxy into a shared vision.