The Probably Probable Probabilities of Person A, Person B, Person C, and Person D

We are taught to not make assumptions, yet we live in a world where despite our knowledge of this idea, we still choose to judge those that we cannot understand. What we cannot understand we laugh at, ridicule, tease, make an entire calamity of it.

Imagine if the world's greatest scientists did that when people didn't believe in them, imagine they gave up halfway through the fight because the entire world was assuming the worst?

When we talk about probability, it is logic. It is the idea that if something has happened more times than it hasn't happened, then there's a high likelihood (probability) that it will happen again.

Why do I bring that up? Well, I'm thinking about something I heard earlier this week: "if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, then it probably is a duck". This statement is wrong.

How is this statement wrong? That's basic probability, right? Wrong. It is not simple probability. It is probability wrapped up in unfounded assumptions ("walks like", "talks like"). That exact phrase actually goes AGAINST science. You cannot measure the probability of an untrue assumption of what something is.

Let me give you an example:

Person A says: "Yeah well all WikWaks are blue and scaly and smelly."

Person B says: "You're right. WikWaks are all the same. Look at this guy on TV! Mr. WikWak King! He's definitely a WikWak!

Person C says: "You are assuming that he is a WikWak based on only a few things you know about him."

Person A says "So fucking what? That's just living in the real world. We cannot pretend things are one way when they are not."

Person B says "We must assume he is a WikWak because if it walks like a Wikwak and talks like a WikWak, then it is probably a WikWak."

Person C says "But wait! We haven't finished talking about why you think all WikWaks are the same. How can we assume probabilities that don't actually exist? These are made up scenarios in your minds. These are pictures that you have of who they are, based on what you perceive. Since everyone has a different sense of perception, how could we possibly come to a consensus about whether a person is good or evil? How can we know for sure anything if we are always judging everything by the outside?"

Person A and Person B look at each other for just a moment and there is silence. Person C looks at them both, with a single tear. Then, just like that A and B start to tear up as well. It had come to their attention, (Persons, A, B, and C) that the world had become a not so nice place to be...until they met Person D.

Person D was the Dreamer, the lover, the fighter. Person D was the scientist, the doctor, the governor. Person D was the creator, the ending, and the beginning

Person D was all enlightened, full of solar energy and warmth

Person D was Different

Person D was Divergent

Diverging from the paths of likely probability.

Person D knew that the probability of the world being one way was just as much as the probability of being the other way.

Person D understood how the world had obscured their view, blinded them from seeing what is really possible, and that's such a travesty.

It's a travesty when the world decides one day that big, seemingly unachievable Dreams are more likely to not come true.

Person A, B, and C listened intently to everything Person D said.

They believed in the mission of Person D.

Person D was the hero.

Person A, B, and C, became heroes.

They changed the world.