Is There an Enrollment Cliff: Exploring What's Next for Pennsylvania's Colleges

If you are like me and you live in Bucks County or drive through the Lehigh Valley, you’ve probably noticed something different about the conversations happening in education. From Langhorne and Middletown Township to Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, and even smaller towns like Quakertown, Emmaus, Perkasie, and Yardley, the word “change” keeps coming up. Whether I am researching the details of financial aid, or keeping up with birthrates and their eventual impact on enrollment, there is always a story to tell about trends in admissions.

And it’s not just about shiny new buildings, US News and World Report Rankings or the latest online program. It’s about something bigger — something industry insiders call the enrollment cliff.

As someone who has been in the trenches — I’ve watched these changes unfold in real time. And trust me, this isn’t a blip. It’s a seismic shift that’s reshaping higher education in Pennsylvania and across the country.

Understanding the Enrollment Cliff — Without the Jargon

Think of the enrollment cliff as a slow-moving storm that’s been building for years. The numbers tell the story. After 2025, high school graduation rates across the U.S. are projected to drop sharply. This dip traces back to the 2007 recession, when birth rates declined. By 2029, we could see as much as a 15% decrease in the number of students entering college, according to data from NPR and Forbes.

For colleges — especially smaller, regional ones — this isn’t just a challenge. It’s a fight for survival. Schools with limited endowments, communities with students entering the trades or without national name recognition will feel the sting most acutely.

Money Problems Are Already Here

The issue isn’t confined to domestic students either. Many colleges used to count on international students as a reliable revenue stream. But as AP News and the Cato Institute have reported, stricter visa policies and global tensions have slashed international enrollment, leaving a significant financial gap.

Adapting for the Future

Here’s the good news: There are ways forward — if institutions are willing to rethink their strategies.

1. Embracing the Modern Learner

Today’s students don’t look like they did 20 years ago. Many are balancing work, family, or other responsibilities. They want:

• Flexible schedules
• Online or hybrid options
• Programs tied directly to career opportunities
• Clear, transparent pricing

Colleges that adapt to these realities — as EducationDynamics notes — tend to see stronger engagement and higher retention.

2. Thinking Local First

In communities like Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, and Center Valley, the most successful institutions are doubling down on local outreach. They’re building partnerships with nearby high schools, local businesses, and workforce boards. Why? Because students want to see a clear path from enrollment to employment, ideally without leaving the area they call home. Local authenticity still matters.

3. Leveraging Policy Shifts

The federal government has made significant updates in 2025, including expanded Pell Grants and new repayment options for student loans. Reports from Brookings and Axios show that colleges aligning with these reforms — and effectively communicating their value — will have a competitive edge.

Lessons From the Field

The Decline of International Students

For decades, international students helped stabilize enrollment numbers and diversify campuses. But with more restrictive policies and growing global competition, that pipeline has slowed. According to AP News and the Cato Institute, welcoming these students back could be a financial lifeline for many institutions.

Why Local Identity Matters

Here’s where folks like me in towns like Langhorne, Newtown, Quakertown, Emmaus, and Perkasie have a unique advantage. Many of these communities are home to colleges that already pride themselves on personalized attention, smaller class sizes, and deep community ties. These strengths can become selling points as students — and their families — prioritize cost, value, and location in their decision-making. If you are like me, using local media helps too. From Patch to Newsbreak, there are countless ways to share your local story.

Steps Colleges Can Take Today

• To avoid falling off the cliff entirely, institutions need to take practical, student-centered action:
• Expand outreach to non-traditional students — adults, career changers, and part-time learners.
• Offer flexible programming — online degrees, hybrid courses, and industry-recognized credentials.
• Invest in partnerships — with local employers and industries to create pipelines to jobs.
• Highlight real outcomes — showcase graduates’ success stories and job placement rates.
• Adapt branding and messaging — tell authentic stories that build trust and resonate with today’s learners.

A Note of Hope

Yes, the numbers are daunting. But the story isn’t all doom and gloom. Schools that innovate — and that embrace their local identity — can turn these challenges into opportunities.

As a former director of admissions and marketing, I’ve seen and presented on how adaptability, creativity, and authenticity can reshape outcomes. For colleges in Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, and the greater Philadelphia region, the key is clear: embrace the change, tell your story authentically, and build programs that reflect the needs of today’s students.

About the Author

Ryan Abramson is an education strategist, author, and founder of Oakridge Leaders. With more than two decades of experience in admissions and communications, Ryan works with families, schools, and organizations across Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, and Philadelphia, helping them find authentic strategies to succeed in a rapidly changing educational landscape.