Why do I feel that the United States is unlikely to decline?

In 1945, just after Nazi Germany surrendered, the Americans did something significant—they sent people around the world to find German scientists. This operation was later called "Operation Paperclip." The name sounds boring, but what they did was ruthless: they packed up more than a thousand German rocket experts, physicists, and chemists and brought them to the United States. Among them was Wernher von Braun, who would later help America land on the moon.

The Soviet Union was also scrambling for talent at that time but didn’t get as many people as the U.S., nor were their methods as “gentle.” The U.S. offered money, housing, and citizenship; the Soviets simply forced people over. We all know how it turned out: behind America's space program, nuclear weapons development, and missile systems stood a large number of brains “plucked” from Europe.

I bring this up not to say how cunning America is—but to point out that even back then America had already figured something out: in this world, the most valuable resource isn’t oil or gold—it’s people—more precisely those capable of creating new things.

And over eighty years since then, America has transformed itself into a global talent magnet.

You ask whether America will decline? I’ll tell you this—as long as that magnet keeps running—it’s hard for it to fall.

Many people talk about American decline by citing data: trillions in national debt; hollowed-out manufacturing; infrastructure crumbling like it's part of a third-world country. Do these problems exist? Of course—and some are serious. But if you think these issues alone can cause America's downfall—you may have misunderstood what “decline” really means.

My understanding of decline is when a country's position in global economic and technological landscapes steadily deteriorates—not just internal messes here or there—but falling further behind other nations overall. By that standard—not only has America not declined—in some ways it’s gotten stronger.

In 1990—the U.S.'s GDP made up about one-quarter of global output; thirty-plus years later—that ratio hasn’t changed much. Even more striking—America's share within G7 countries rose from 40% in 1990 to today’s 58%. In plain terms—among developed nations—the U.S. has pulled far ahead of its peers.

Why? The answer isn't complicated: because America holds two trump cards—global talent—and an unmatched ability to turn talent into wealth—and these two reinforce each other.

Let’s start with talent.

Look at who does research in STEM fields (science/technology/engineering/math) in the U.S.—over 40% of PhD holders were born abroad—in computer science it's nearly 60%. What does that mean? It means cutting-edge innovation in America relies heavily on imported brainpower.

Every year—a good portion of the smartest young minds worldwide choose graduate school in the U.S.—and many stay afterward for work.

This cycle has gone on for decades—creating momentum:

Talent gathers where there's already lots of talent;

Resources flow where resources concentrate;

It snowballs through Matthew Effect dynamics (the rich get richer).

Now—I know someone will say things are changing now—

Fewer Chinese students want to go study there,

More Chinese scientists are returning home.

That trend exists—you can see it statistically—

But remember:

America doesn’t rely solely on China.

Indians,

Europeans,

Middle Easterners,

Africans—

Anyone globally who wants research opportunities—or startups—or big money—

Still sees America as top choice.

Even if interest among Chinese students drops by double digits—the total pool remains huge—and others fill gaps.

This pump doesn’t run off one pipe alone.

Now let’s talk about card #2:

Turning brains into dollars—

Sounds simple—but actually very difficult.

After all—talent exists everywhere—

Europe has smart folks too right?

Japan too?

So why don’t they produce Silicon Valleys?

Or Teslas?

Or OpenAIs?

Not because their scientists aren’t good enough

(Many Nobel laureates come from Europe)

But because their systems aren’t built

To convert intelligence into capital efficiently

What makes American exceptionalism tick—is its entire infrastructure supporting commercialization:

Got an idea? Venture capitalists throw money at you;

Company takes off? Nasdaq lets you raise funds via IPO;

Fail miserably? Bankruptcy laws protect your restart;

This system's been running for decades—it forms an ecosystem:

Rocket makers,

AI developers,

Biotech dreamers—

No matter how crazy your idea—you’ll always find investors willing to bet on it—in America

Crucially—the U.S. offers one massive unified market:

Over 300 million consumers speaking same language under same legal framework

Your product instantly reaches everyone domestically

Which spreads R&D costs thinly across scale advantages

Compare with Europe—even though population size is similar—it splits across twenty-something countries—with different languages/laws/habits—which jacks up adaptation costs per market segment

Japan fares worse still—with too small a domestic base—to sustain tech growth without exports—which pits them against American firms inside America's own turf—a tough fight indeed

That explains why—even among developed economies—only Americans consistently translate scientific edge into commercial/economic dominance while others struggle

Europe produces plenty foundational breakthroughs—but final profits often end up harvested by American companies instead:

Just look at today's tech giants:

Apple

Google

Microsoft

Amazon

Nvidia

Tesla

OpenAI—

All unmistakably American brands—not due to lackluster European intellect—but systemic inability elsewhere—to support genius scaling commercially

Of course—I know critics will push back:

What about everything wrong with USA?

Drug crisis?

Gun violence?

Wealth inequality?

Broken healthcare system?

Political polarization?

Yes—all real problems—and some quite severe:

Life expectancy declining recently—for example—is near bottom among developed nations;

Opioid epidemic kills tens-of-thousands annually;

Mass shootings so frequent they've numbed public response;

Partisan warfare paralyzes government operations regularly—

Are these issues problematic? Absolutely!

Do they drag down performance somewhat? Certainly!

But we must distinguish between two types of problems:

One kind threatens structural foundations directly —

like stagnant growth / dried-up innovation / mass brain drain —

Another kind causes discomfort —but doesn't touch core competitiveness —

like bad policing / poor roads / chaotic politics —

Most US troubles belong squarely in category #2—

Cold-blooded maybe—but reality nonetheless:

A nation’s true strength lies ultimately—in its capacity for wealth creation + innovation—

As long as those engines keep humming—all else becomes manageable via funding—or won’t derail trajectory entirely—

Yes—it’s tragic thousands die yearly from drugs,

But mostly lower-income groups suffer—not coders writing software at Google HQ;

Shootings horrify us all,

Yet Wall Street traders continue making deals unaffected daily;

Cruel truth perhaps,

But great power competition hinges upon elite capabilities—not grassroots welfare metrics—

Moreover—we must admit something strange yet powerful about US governance model:

Though messy-looking externally—it possesses uncanny self-correction mechanisms internally–

Not reliant upon centralized authority solving crises top-down–

Instead driven by markets/society/messy negotiations inching toward equilibrium slowly/painfully/yet resiliently–

Take history lessons:

1970s saw stagflation/oil shocks/Vietnam defeat–many predicted collapse then…

2008 financial meltdown sparked another wave…

Today political gridlock/social division again fuels doomsaying…

Yet every time–somehow–it bounces back–and economic numbers surprise skeptics anew...

Which brings me finally—to reflect briefly on "decline" itself...

Many misunderstand what national decline looks like–

Imagining domino-style collapses once tipping begins...

Reality differs greatly–

Historical declines (Spain/Netherlands/Britain etc.) unfolded gradually–

So slow residents barely noticed day-to-day shifts...

Britain remained dominant circa-1900...

Only truly exited first-tier status post-WWII...

Spanning half-century+ including wars & empire loss...

Ask average Briton during interwar period whether UK had declined–

They’d likely scoff–“Empire still vast! Pound still strong! London still finance hub!”

By comparison–today's USA nowhere near such thresholds–

UK fell mainly due war exhaustion + colonial unraveling…

Whereas modern US never fought existential conflicts lately…nor maintains costly colonies…

Its hegemony rests atop technology/finance/military supremacy—all intact currently…

So my view is clear:

Will challenges arise domestically within USA?

Absolutely yes!

Will genuine "decline" occur soon?

Highly unlikely—for foreseeable future anyway...

Because underlying engine remains functional—including inflow-of-talent → conversion-to-innovation → monetization-at-scale → institutional-flexibility loop continues spinning smoothly thus far…

Could breakdown happen someday?

Sure possible...if immigration shuts completely...or governance fails catastrophically...or education collapses utterly...

These risks exist…but seem low-probability presently…

Even Trump-era anti-immigration rhetoric spared H1B visas (for skilled workers)—why?

Because Silicon Valley would've revolted otherwise—they literally depend upon foreign engineers daily!

Lastly—a potentially unpopular opinion here——

Many folks inside China love watching content predicting imminent US doom——self-media constantly churns stories painting bleak pictures——very satisfying emotionally——like rooting against villains onscreen——feels cathartic when bad guys stumble————but binge-watching such narratives distorts perception eventually————leading possibly toward strategic misjudgment————because despite flaws galore————USA remains planet Earth‘s premier destination attracting brilliance + converting ideas profitably————not self-declared superiority either————but proven repeatedly through foot-votes cast voluntarily worldwide……

You may dislike this fact……but cannot deny its existence……

Back full circle—to those German scientists again……

Eighty years passed……yet Uncle Sam plays same game today……

Only difference being stealthier tactics & larger scale……

No need anymore sending agents abroad forcibly recruiting geniuses……

Young talents now buy plane tickets themselves……

Apply willingly—for visas/universities/jobs……

Devoting best years & sharpest minds freely unto foreign soil……

That pipeline—is America's true moat......

As long as river flows......American decline stays postponed......

When might river dry up......honestly no clue......

Maybe twenty years......

Maybe fifty......

Maybe longer......

One thing seems certain though：

Those eagerly awaiting collapse？

Likely waiting forever……