The European Environment Agency (EEA) publishes the Global Development trend Assessment report.
In the past half century, the global population has doubled to more than 7 billion, and this number will continue to grow in the coming decades.
On 20 March 2015, the European Environment Agency (EEA) released the Global Major Trends Assessment report (Assessment of global megatrends-an update), which is based on the update of the version released in 2010.
Based on the 2010 report, 11 global trends in social, economic, scientific and technological, environmental and political areas are tentatively analyzed.
1 social field.
1.1 the development trends of global population size and structure are different.
Globally, various factors affecting the size and structure of the population, such as fertility, mortality and population migration, fundamentally affect social and economic development.
However, the development trend varies from region to region, with a downward trend of population ageing in developed economies and a rapid expansion of population ageing in developing countries.
A large labor force will bring a "demographic dividend" to promote economic development, but it will bring the risk of social unrest.
If aging continues, these "demographic dividends" will shift to health and education, as well as retirement and pension.
If the development mode of the world economy still operates at the consumption of "demographic dividend", it will have a great negative impact on natural assets, and developing countries need to change their mode of development to protect the environment. Developed economies need stronger economic capacity to maintain the problems caused by a higher population aging.
1.2 expansion of cities and urban population.
The development of agricultural economy to industrialization provides a large number of labor force for the city, employment and income pour into the city, which provides an endogenous driving force for the development of urbanization, but at the same time brings challenges to government management and great pressure on the environment.
At the beginning of the 20th century, only 10% to 15% of the world's population lived in cities, and by 2010 that number had risen to 50%. According to the United Nations, the urban population will account for 67% of the total population by 2050, and the urban population will rise from 2.6 billion in 2010 to 5.1 billion in 2050.
Urbanization can provide more employment opportunities and will better improve the living standards of the population.
At the macroeconomic level, cities will promote innovation and create productivity.
Although the strengthening of the middle class is conducive to social stability, rapid economic growth will also lead to overuse of resources and aggravation of pollution.
Dense urban residential areas can provide a relatively resource-saving way of life, but creating such efficient, healthy and safe residential areas requires scientific urban planning. in fact, the consequences of poorly managed urbanization are unimaginable.
1.3 difficulties in preventing and controlling the spread of epidemics and diseases.
The world is experiencing a health problem brought about by changes in the way of economic development and lifestyle.
Since 2000, the global disease burden is still in the area of communicable diseases (such as AIDS, tuberculosis, measles), while the mortality rate of traditional non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes) remains high in developing countries, which is closely related to the way of life in each country.
Although infectious diseases are decreasing globally, the mortality rate is still high in developing countries.
Differences in sanitary conditions continue to be a major factor in the spread of the epidemic.
Economic and social development will affect global health in the future.
Increasing infrastructure investment in health, improving education, forming good living habits and hygiene habits are the main factors for improving human health. The Millennium ecosystem Assessment emphasizes that human health depends on a healthy ecosystem. Therefore, protecting the ecological environment has become an indispensable and urgent task for us.
(2) Rapid development of science and technology.
The development of science and technology is changing with each passing day, especially the rapid development of nanotechnology, biotechnology and computer technology. The integrated development of these three technologies will greatly change our lives.
New products and innovation will improve resource efficiency and move towards a low-carbon economy.
In the process, the technological revolution will transform energy, manufacturing, health care and many other industries.
In the rapid change, it will also bring us unexpected risks, such as potential threats to health and the environment, which we do not know now.
Institutional and policy innovation needs to minimize risks, and we need sustainable development in the process of promoting technological change.
3. Economic field.
3.1 will the economy continue to grow.
The financial crisis in 2008 led to a slowdown in many developed countries in 2009, especially in Europe.
From the perspective of long-term economic forecasts, the economy of Europe in the next few years is not optimistic. Mainstream economists in Europe predict that the European economy will not improve greatly in the next few decades. Asia's huge population and various resources will promote the rapid economic development of Asia.
However, rapid economic growth may also have a great impact on the environment and ecology of Asia.
However, a scientific and efficient mode of economic development does not have an impact on the environment and ecology. For example, in recent years, while some developed countries protect the environment through measures such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and controlling air pollution, the economy is still showing positive growth.
3.2 A multipolar inclusive world.
Globally, economic power is changing.
In the last century, the world's population and countries, which accounted for about 1. 5% of the world's population, dominated global production and consumption.
Today, this situation is changing, and power is gradually balanced, especially the rise of Asian countries.
Economic and demographic projections show that the economic, political and diplomatic influence of today's rich economies is shrinking.
With the interdependence and interaction of global trade, Europe will have the opportunity to benefit from improved resource efficiency and a knowledge-based economy.
3.3 Global competition for resources intensifies.
Changes in economy, industry and technology as well as consumption patterns have increased the demand for resources, whether renewable or non-renewable.
With the rising standard of living, in the face of limited resources, the increase in usage will develop geometrically and will be unevenly distributed around the world.
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