Is the announcement of a 50 percent tariff on India a golden opportunity for Pakistan to increase exports to the United States?

If you’ve ever visited a South Asian grocery store in the US—perhaps with a friend or relative living in a Pakistani or Indian community—you’ve probably seen shelves lined with jars of pickles, packets of ready-made spice mixes, tins of leafy greens, and sacks of fragrant basmati rice.

In New York and other US cities, there are many such stores selling every kind of Pakistani and Indian product.

In addition to these community-based shops, major American retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco also have “Indian sections” where you’ll find Haldiram spice mixes, basmati rice, dry fruits, and other South Asian goods.

The large US retail chains are also stocked with clothing and textile products made in India, China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

Now, the US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian products. This raises concerns that Indian goods will become more expensive for American consumers, but analysts believe it could also open new opportunities in US markets for countries like Pakistan.

Aiza Irfan, who lives in New York, says she and her family prefer South Asian food.

“We do most of our kitchen and grocery shopping from Indian stores, and around 50% to 60% of these products are imported from India,” she said.

By comparison, Pakistani goods are subject to only a 19% US tariff, giving Pakistani officials hope that their products could gain better access to American markets.





The Reality vs. Expectations – Can Pakistan Take a Share of the US Market in This ‘Tariff War’?



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Former President Donald Trump initially imposed a 25% tariff on Indian products, and later added another 25%—citing India’s oil imports from Russia—bringing the total tariff to 50%.

Starting at the end of this month, the higher tariffs will take effect, potentially making Indian products less competitive in US markets.

Economists and credit rating agencies warn that these tariffs could impact India’s GDP.

Bilateral trade between the US and India exceeds $128 billion.

According to the US Census Bureau, India exports to the US in large quantities: raw materials for pharmaceuticals, textiles, precious stones, gold and silver jewelry, rice, spices, tea, and petrochemicals.

In 2024, India exported $87 billion worth of goods to the US, while importing $41.5 billion worth from the US. The trade balance tilts in India’s favor, with a $45.8 billion trade surplus in goods alone.




Can Pakistani Goods Replace Indian Products?




Donald Trump once said that India is a friend of the US, “but the trade partnership is not on fair terms.”

In February, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US, and both countries agreed to aim for $500 billion in trade by 2030.

Aiza Irfan said she usually buys spices, basmati rice, and ingredients for South Asian dishes from “desi stores” like Patel Brothers and Apna Bazaar—Indian-American retail chains spread across the US that import goods directly from India and sell them at lower prices.

However, she fears that after the tariff hike, Indian products will become too expensive, forcing her to switch to cheaper alternatives.

Economists say the new tariffs on China and India have created more space for Pakistani goods in the US market.

In 2025, Pakistan’s total exports were $35.9 billion. US trade data shows total bilateral trade between Pakistan and the US at $7.2 billion.

In 2024, Pakistan exported $5 billion worth of goods to the US while importing $2 billion worth from it. The US is one of the few countries with which Pakistan enjoys a trade surplus.




50% Tariff on India – A ‘Rare’ Opportunity for Pakistan?




Former Pakistani ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Dr. Manzoor Ahmad says Pakistan’s exports have been stagnant for years, but now the “tariff war” offers a chance to increase market share.

A member of Pakistan’s Tariff Reforms Committee, Dr. Ahmad believes that in sectors like textiles, leather goods, sports equipment, and food products, Pakistan has the capacity and experience to capture some of India’s market share.

However, India is a major trade partner for the US. Such high tariffs could hurt not only India but also US businesses. Some business circles believe both countries will eventually try to resolve the dispute.

India accounts for 18% of total US imports.






Challenges for Pakistani Exporter






Pakistan’s biggest export to the US is textiles, but industry reactions have been mixed.

Interloop, one of Pakistan’s largest exporters to the US, says big US retailers will likely wait a few weeks to see if a tariff-reduction deal happens before shifting orders.

According to Interloop’s CEO, Musaddiq Zulqarnain, if the 25% additional tariff on India stays, Pakistan could benefit most in home textiles. In garments, the first choice for order shifts would be Bangladesh, then Vietnam, and then Pakistan.

If Pakistan captures 10–15% of India’s market share, that could mean an additional $500–750 million in exports—but only if Pakistani prices are close to India’s.

Textile exporter Masood Naqi says India’s share of the US textile market is 8%, while Pakistan’s is only 2.5%.

Of Pakistan’s $17 billion total textile exports, about $4 billion go to the US.

Naqi points out that Pakistan and India are not always direct competitors in textiles—Pakistan’s main rivals are China and Bangladesh, both of which have much larger production capacity.

Trump has imposed 30% tariffs on China and 20% on Bangladesh.

Naqi notes that some textile units are already moving out of China, and if Pakistan can create a favorable environment—especially in terms of security—it could benefit in the long term.

However, he warns that if US consumers find products too expensive, they might stop buying them altogether, hurting both India and Pakistan.

Dr. Manzoor Ahmad says Pakistan’s recent tariff reforms now allow easier machinery imports, making it possible for big tech companies like Apple and Samsung to invest in Pakistan—something that wasn’t feasible before.

Economist Uzair Younus, based in the US, says Pakistan now has a better competitive position than India in textiles because of the lower 19% tariff, but it’s important to complete IMF-backed energy reforms to reduce production costs.

A Big Opportunity for Pakistani Basmati Rice
Basmati rice is grown in both India and Pakistan and is very popular in the US and Europe. In the US, most basmati rice sold is Indian, with Pakistani exports relatively small.

According to S.M. Sabeer-ur-Rehman of the Pakistan Rice Exporters Association, India’s basmati rice exports to the US are three times higher than Pakistan’s.

With the tariff on India, Pakistan now has a strong opportunity to increase its exports—but the next three weeks will be crucial.

Pakistan exported $3.93 billion worth of rice in FY2025, of which basmati accounted for $830 million.

Sabeer says he is in contact with US buyers, but most are waiting to see if Trump’s decision holds, as his policies have been unpredictable.

He says Pakistan can absolutely increase its exports, but new orders will take time.

In New York, Aiza Irfan says that while the US offers many rice varieties, biryani only tastes right with basmati. If Indian basmati becomes too expensive, she believes Pakistani basmati will be a good alternative since both have the same aroma and flavor.