Humanity's Existential Crossroads

In January of 1995, Russia faced a terrifying moment when it detected an incoming nuclear missile. The president grappled with the decision to retaliate, but fortunately, another system contradicted the initial warning. The supposed missile turned out to be a harmless research rocket studying the captivating Northern Lights. Although occurring after the Cold War, this incident stands as one of humanity's closest brushes with igniting a global nuclear war. With the invention of the atomic bomb, we acquired the unprecedented power to self-destruct.

Since then, our existential risk, encompassing the possibility of extinction or the irreparable collapse of human civilization, has steadily grown. It lies within our capability to mitigate this risk, but to do so, we must comprehend which of our actions pose existential threats presently and in the future.

Throughout 2,000 centuries, our species has weathered extinction risks stemming from natural causes—such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions. Assessing existential risk carries inherent uncertainty since we usually gauge likelihood based on historical precedent. However, complete annihilation of humanity has never occurred. While there is no flawless method to determine our risk from natural threats, experts estimate it to be around 1 in 10,000 per century.

Nuclear weapons were the first addition to this baseline risk. While numerous dangers accompany nuclear weapons, the existential risk arises from the potential of a global nuclear war triggering a nuclear winter. This catastrophic scenario involves soot from burning cities blotting out the sun for years, leading to crop failures that jeopardize human survival. We have yet to experience a nuclear war, and our historical record is insufficient to ascertain whether such events are intrinsically improbable or if luck has been on our side. Furthermore, we cannot definitively determine if a global nuclear war would induce a severe nuclear winter posing an existential threat.

The next significant addition to our existential risk is climate change. Like nuclear war, climate change presents numerous alarming scenarios that demand urgent action. However, these fall short of causing extinction or irreparable collapse.

While we anticipate a few degrees of Celsius warming, we cannot rule out worst-case scenarios of 6 or even 10 degrees. Such temperature increases would result in calamitous consequences of potentially unparalleled proportions. Even in the direst circumstances, it remains unclear whether warming alone would directly pose an existential risk. However, the ensuing disruption would likely render us more vulnerable to other existential threats.

The most substantial risks may arise from emerging technologies. Engineered pandemics, for example, have historically yielded the gravest catastrophes. Biotechnology grants us the capability to modify and create pathogens that surpass naturally occurring ones in lethality. Biowarfare and research accidents could lead to pandemics caused by these engineered germs. The decreasing costs of genome sequencing and modification, coupled with the widespread availability of potentially dangerous information (such as published genomes of lethal viruses), expand the pool of individuals and groups capable of producing such pathogens. Additionally, concerns persist regarding unaligned artificial intelligence (AI). Many AI researchers predict that this century will witness the development of AI surpassing human abilities across the board. Placing our future solely in the hands of these systems, even with the best of intentions, could pose an existential risk if their alignment with human values proves imperfect—an immensely challenging task for scientists. Based on current understanding, experts estimate that anthropogenic existential risk surpasses the background rate of natural risk by more than 100 times.

Nevertheless, the odds heavily depend on human choices, as most risks stem from human action and are within our control. By prioritizing the safeguarding of humanity's future as the defining issue of our time, we can reduce this risk. Whether we fulfill our vast potential or falter rests squarely in our hands.

Henrik Leandro