El Niño is likely to return in 2026. Here's what that means for Houston and Texas.
When La Niña Fades Out
La Niña has been active since mid-October. However, according to the January update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it’s likely to end over the next couple of months, and a transition to El Niño is likely to occur later this year.
Exactly what does that mean, again? The presence of La Niña or El Niño is solely determined by the water temperature of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, near the equator. La Niña occurs when the sea-surface temp is below average, while El Niño is active when water temps are above average. When temperatures are close to normal, conditions are considered neutral.
While sea-surface temperatures may seem arbitrary, this feature in the world’s largest ocean plays a big role in how global atmospheric circulations are formed. In the case of La Niña, high atmospheric pressure typically develops over the northern Pacific, between Hawaii and Alaska. This, in turn, forces the polar jet stream farther north, resulting in fewer cold fronts and warmer weather for the southern United States.
These ocean driven patterns help explain why weather across Texas often shifts in broad, regional ways rather than through short lived local changes. When the jet stream stays north, storm systems struggle to reach the state. Cold air outbreaks become less frequent, rainfall totals drop, and long stretches of mild weather become more common. Over time, these small daily differences add up to seasons that feel noticeably warmer and drier than normal.
A warm and dry winter so far
La Niña has ived up to expectations across Texas, delivering an unusually warm and dry winter statewide. Since Dec. 1, the start of meteorological winter, Houston is running 6.5 degrees above average.
Other Texas cities have experienced similar warmth. San Antonio’s average daily high temperature has been 70.7 degrees, which is 6.3 degrees above average and tied for the second-warmest start to winter in the city’s history. Austin is about 7 degrees above normal, and Dallas has been more than 7.5 degrees above normal so far this winter.
The rainfall numbers are also quite dramatic. San Antonio, Austin and Dallas — cities that typically see 3 to 4 inches of rain from Dec. 1 through mid-January — have each recorded less than a half-inch of rainfall so far this winter. Houston has seen more rain, with more than 2.5 inches, but the city is still nearly 3 inches below average for the winter.
Dry conditions can affect more than just daily comfort. Extended lack of rainfall can worsen drought, lower soil moisture, and increase wildfire risk, especially in rural areas. Farmers and ranchers also feel the impact when winter moisture is limited, since it reduces early season growth for crops and pasture. While one dry winter does not guarantee long term water problems, it can place added stress on reservoirs and groundwater supplies if wet weather does not return in the spring.
La Niña ending
La Niña is only expected to continue for about another month or so, but after that, waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to begin warming. NOAA calls for a 75% chance of neutral conditions in place by February, increasing to an 87% chance by March and April.
A transition to El Niño occurs once sea-surface temperatures rise to at least 0.5 degree Celsius above average. That shift could occur as early as this summer, with NOAA’s forecasting a 50% chance of El Niño developing between June and August. By September and October, the likelihood of El Niño rises to more than 60%.
NOAA's updated forecast shows that La Niña is likely to end by spring, and neutral conditions are expected into the early summer. El Niño is likely to develop by late summer or fall.
Climate Prediction Center/NOAA
What would El Niño mean for Texas?
If El Niño does develop by this fall, the likely effects are opposite to that of La Niña. During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream stretches out and moves closer to Texas, resulting in more frequent cold fronts and a more active storm track across the southern United States.
If El Niño were to persist into the 2026-27 winter, Texas would be more likely to experience colder and wetter weather than normal. Since 1950, as many as 27 winters have had active El Niño patterns, most recently during the 2023-24 season. During those years, Houston’s average winter temperatures have been 1.7 degrees colder than in non-El Niño winters, a significant decrease.
The effect on precipitation is also noticeable. During El Niño winters, Houston has averaged 11.33 inches of rain from December through February, an increase of 17% compared to non-El Niño winters.
It’s important to note that an El Niño is not guaranteed to develop this fall or winter — only that the odds are trending in that direction. Considerable uncertainty remains in the global forecast, so be sure to stay updated with houstonchronicle.com/weather for updates as the chance of an El Niño becomes more clear in the coming months.
For Texans, the coming transition period could bring more changeable weather as the atmosphere adjusts. Neutral conditions often mean greater day to day swings, with brief cool spells, isolated storm systems, and uneven rainfall. While this does not guarantee a wet spring or a cold fall, it does suggest that the quiet, stable pattern of La Niña may gradually give way to a more active one. Watching how the Pacific continues to warm will be key to understanding what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
Tags:
La Niña, El Niño, Texas weather, climate patterns, NOAA forecast, winter outlook, Pacific Ocean, drought, rainfall, climate change
About the Creator
Dena Falken Esq
Dena Falken Esq is renowned in the legal community as the Founder and CEO of Legal-Ease International, where she has made significant contributions to enhancing legal communication and proficiency worldwide.
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