A Grim Prelude: North Korea Enters Ukraine War

Events have taken center stage as troop deployment was recently made by North Korea to support Russia in the ongoing war against Ukraine. It stirred deep-seated fears of a geopolitical escalation.

The newfangled military alignment between North Korea and Russia lays out a seismic shift in the geopolitics of East Asia, one that has profound implications for the balance of power in Asia, Europe, and indeed far beyond. North Korea's involvement on the Ukrainian front serves not only to reinforce the stretched resources of Russia but also to secure a strategic partnership that has grave implications for regional stability.

What are North Korea's motivations for supporting Russia, what is the nature of this collaboration, and possible implications for world order? 

An Unparalleled Deployment: North Korean Forces in Russia

The reported deployment in Russia of North Korean forces up to 10,000 troops, represents one of the very few instances Pyongyang has projected its military power outside the Korean Peninsula. 

Historically, North Korea has been felt to maintain isolation to a great extent, particularly in terms of direct military involvement beyond its borders. Recent intelligence from the U.S., South Korea, and Ukraine has stated that North Korean forces, presumably elements from elite units, have been deployed within Russia's Kursk region. 

That puts the Kursk deployment close to Ukraine, which has also been attacked and counter-attacked by Ukrainian forces, hence an active field of live conflict. Already, the first troops of North Korea have come into fire in the region, it was reported on social media by Andrii Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security Council. 

While those reports remain independently unverified, speculation is supported by a series of statements from international intelligence agencies that estimate between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean soldiers may be stationed across different parts of Russia-the largest military excursion of North Korean forces abroad in recent history.

"U.S. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken also noted, they are likely to be very actively involved in combat. According to the information, North Korean soldiers were given specialized training upon arrival in Russia, studying modern tactics, including work with drones. 

Observers say North Korea's elite, well-disciplined special forces could prove valuable for the Russian military strategy because of the attrition that Russian forces have suffered in the prolonged conflict. 

The forces of North Korea could be employed in offensive tasks or supporting roles, or even to maintain logistical activities on the part of Ukraine held by Russian forces.

Strategic Motives: Kim Jong Un's Calculated Risk

The decision to send troops overseas is a carefully calculated geopolitical gamble by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. 

In return, the cozy up with Russia pays in many practical and ideological ways for Kim. First, by standing shoulder to shoulder with Putin, Kim Jong Un places North Korea within an alliance that squarely aligns against the reach of Western powers, namely the United States. 

Because of its nuclear program, North Korea has been under economic sanctions and international isolation for many years; a partnership with Russia means the opportunity to cement an alliance with a global player who shares its anti-Western stance.

The conflict in Ukraine presents North Korea with an unparalleled opportunity to strengthen its military potential. The modern conflict's dispatch of troops to the front line allows the forces of the Republic of North Korea to gain valuable combat experience that might be helpful in a future conflict with South Korea, especially experience in regard to the use of drones, communications, and the management of logistical matters. 

According to South Korean analysts, such as Olena Guseinova of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, in this interaction, the North Korean forces will be taught methods of warfare that might become very important in any escalation on the Korean Peninsula. The second vital factor driving the decision is the economic benefit North Korea can reap from its support for Russia. 

Apart from each soldier reportedly earning Pyongyang $2,000, according to South Korean intelligence estimates, other provisions could be much-needed fuel and food supplies, or even advanced military technology. The exact financial terms of the deal are not known, but it presumably offers North Korea resources that are otherwise in short supply due to international sanctions. 

In addition to the monetary compensation, Kim might look at access to Russia's military technology. Some analysts said Kim may ask for the transfer of ICBM and nuclear submarines technology, but that would be very speculative, considering that Russia is hesitant to share such advanced technologies.

Impact on Regional and Global Stability?

The involvement of North Korea in the war in Ukraine has sent ripples to East Asia, particularly to South Korea and Japan. 

In Seoul, the government takes this new alliance between North Korea and Russia very seriously. Kim Jong Un's recent pronouncements, including declaring South Korea the "principal enemy," have further heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The anxiety is also growing that North Korean soldiers are gaining operational knowledge in Ukraine that could be used in future conflicts against South Korea.

Equally disturbing is this alignment to Japan, which has just raised its defense following the recent test of an intercontinental missile by North Korea that landed close to Japanese waters. Indeed, it would be easy to prophesize the emergence of an arms race in East Asia, especially with Japan and South Korea hastening their defense spending in response to the North Korean threat. 

Last week, joint military exercises were conducted by the United States, Japan, and South Korea to signal readiness in response to the burgeoning North Korean capabilities. Moreover, the alliance between North Korea and Russia adds more unease to the region's stability as it alters dynamics in the balance of power in East Asia. 

China, traditionally North Korea's primary ally, remains apprehensive at the thought of losing influence on Pyongyang. North Korea has traditionally depended on China for basic necessities, and Beijing has played the role of a reluctant patron all these years, offering economic aid in return for strategic leverages. Current outreach towards Russia might decrease North Korea's dependency on China and would thereby change the equations of power in East Asia, lessening Beijing's hold on Pyongyang.

While China speaks of neutrality regarding events in Ukraine, the large trade in dual-use goods would imply tacit support for Russia. Although direct military aid to Russia on Beijing's part has not materialized, a nascent North Korean-Russian axis complicates Chinese regional strategy. 

As North Korea is increasingly independent in its alignment with Russia, Beijing risks an emboldened Pyongyang acting unilaterally in the region in a manner that is difficult for China to rein in. 

Risk of Escalation: A Proxy to a Larger Conflict? 

The fact that North Korean troops are directly involved could lead to the escalation of this war in Ukraine into a more intricate multinational war that may lead to broader global escalation, experts said. 

Past conflicts involving the North Korean factor have been contained, as was the case during the Korean War when direct confrontation between major powers was avoided. Today, however, the stakes are higher and the dynamics more complicated: an official entry into the war by North Korea could raise the stakes of confrontation between NATO forces and an emerging Russian-DPRK axis.

The Asian affairs expert, Rüdiger Frank, said the declaration of formal military support by North Korea would mark a point of no return in transforming the Ukraine conflict from a bilateral war into a regional one, possibly spiraling even wider. 

According to Frank, de-escalation could be achieved only by a fragile balance of interests, with Russia possibly building a case by labeling North Korean soldiers "volunteers" in an attempt to avoid direct accountability. The strategy is analogous to China's Korean War-era deployment of troops, who were described as "volunteers" to avoid declarations of official hostilities.

Casualties among North Korean troops would mount over time as battles drag on, nonetheless, which would increasingly necessitate Pyongyang's acknowledgment. For Kim Jong Un, the admission might become a propaganda instrument for bolstering internal legitimacy by stressing North Korea's solidarity with Russia. While North Korean state media have so far remained silent on the deployment, a change in rhetoric may yet take place if the conflict offers the regime value in terms of propaganda. 

The Beginning of an Axis in Multipolarity? 

The Military-Security Alignment of North Korea and Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian War represents a further entrenchment between various states opposed to the U.S.-led world order. 

The active support of Kim Jong Un for Russia in many ways manifests the rise of a new axis, where North Korea and Russia come together in an alliance against the Western camp. That would be one of those rare opportunities for North Korea to modernize its army, get economic dividends, and become relevant in international life-something it cannot afford while in isolation.

While the alliance satisfies some short-term tactical necessities of both Russia and North Korea, its longer-term implications are not yet certain. This alliance may presage a new recasting of geopolitical alliances and an arms race in East Asia, with debates on what to do about this axis already underway in South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. 

The stakes are high, with further escalation likely embroiling more countries, therefore the risk of a wider conflict. The world watches closely as this situation unfolds, knowing well that decisions made by Russia, North Korea, and their neighbors will determine the course of global security in an increasingly polarized world.