As American Warships Lurk in Venezuela, Fear and Hope

As one speaker after another, microphone in hand, called on the hundreds of government supporters in one part of the city to defend the country with their lives, hundreds of them held their rifles to their chests.

Businessmen and diplomats in a different corner expressed concern over the growing hostilities between the United States and Venezuela, what they perceive to be a missed chance for communication between the two nations, and the potential for a U.S. strike that might cause chaos and carnage. However, elsewhere in the capital, Caracas, there was skepticism about the possibility of political change in Venezuela and a battle-weary calm.

I spent a week in Venezuela during a particularly stressful period after being granted a rare visa for foreign media. The Trump administration's deployment of warships into the Caribbean has put relations with the United States at a crossroads. President Trump's outspoken threats against President Nicolás Maduro and the magnitude of the buildup have raised the possibility of strikes, commando raids in the South American country, or a wider confrontation.

In addition to calling Mr. Maduro the leader of a terrorist group that is threatening the US and supplying it with drugs, Mr. Trump has stated that he wants to use the military to crack down on cartels and stop trafficking to the US.

The United States claims that it has significantly increased the pressure Mr. Trump has placed on Mexico to combat fentanyl by blowing up at least three drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, including at least two from Venezuela.

According to the U.S. government's statistics, some drugs do flow from Venezuela, but fentanyl does not, and the cocaine that does make up a very minor portion of the trade—much less than that which comes from Colombia and leaves from Ecuador. Many analysts have concluded that the Trump administration's true objective is to target Mr. Maduro as a result of this.

Some Venezuelans have stated in interviews that they are in favour of any action that would result in the removal of Mr. Maduro, whose movement has ruled the nation for a generation and who is accused of grave human rights abuses.

Maria Corina Machado, an opposition leader, is in charge of the organisation that advocates using force. According to her base, the United States can defend the outcome of last year's presidential election, which is generally thought to have been lost, if Mr. Maduro is removed. Mr. Maduro's opponent, Edmundo González, a stand-in for Ms. Machado, was acknowledged as the legitimate winner by independent vote observers and other nations, including the United States.

Pedro Urruchurtu, one of Ms. Machado's advisors, stated that she was working with the Trump administration and had a strategy for the first 100 hours following Mr. Maduro's overthrow. He claimed that the plan would "guarantee a stable transition" to Mr. González and that it included the involvement of international allies, including the United States.

Other Venezuelans, however, expressed much less enthusiasm for US intervention in interviews. Many people felt that a violent U.S. move was not the answer, even those who claimed to want to see Mr. Maduro removed and said that he had only survived via brutality. Because they were afraid of reprisals, several talked under the condition of anonymity.

Baldwin, Alec Can't Wait for Dudamel, Either Some expressed scepticism about the US's readiness to maintain a sizable military presence in order to guarantee the stability of a government supported by the US.

According to three diplomats, there were few indications that the military would flip against Mr. Maduro or that anyone in his inner circle would defect to back an opposition leader.

Other Venezuelans cautioned that overthrowing Mr. Maduro would merely encourage a struggle for control among the armed actors who remain, such as the military, paramilitary gangs, and Colombian guerrilla organisations. There are also a lot of spoils in Venezuela because of its oil, gold, and other resources.

According to a well-known billionaire, "if you kill Maduro, you turn Venezuela into Haiti," which fell into anarchy following the assassination of its previous president.

Others questioned if Mr. Trump was prepared to intervene militarily and claimed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio's gunboat approach would simply drive Venezuela closer to China, Russia, and Iran and away from the United States.

In response to Washington's mobilisation, Mr. Maduro has armed civilians, deployed tanks into the streets, and announced nationwide military drills that have been widely reported on social media and state television. However, according to his advisors, the main takeaway for Washington is that their government opposes war.

This month, the president of Venezuela wrote to Mr. Trump to thank him for his efforts to prevent more crises and to express his willingness to have a "direct and frank conversation." meeting Richard Grenell, Mr. Trump's special envoy to Venezuela.

When Mr. Grenell visited Venezuela to speak with Mr. Maduro shortly after Mr. Trump took office, it appeared like he was attempting to mend fences. More recently, though, Mr. Trump seems to prefer Mr. Rubio's tough stance.

Vice President Delcy Rodríguez stated in an interview conducted at her office within the nation's oil ministry headquarters that she thought Mr. Trump was guiding the world into "a stage where the United States has openly declared war on the world."

She declared, "The Ministry of Defence is now the Ministry of War, not Defence." "Trade relations are now a trade war rather than just trade relations."

She demanded that economic ties with the US, which has sanctioned Venezuela's crucial oil sector, be normalised and referred to the boat attacks as "absolutely illegal."