HOW CHINA WILL TAKE OVER AFRICA IN THE FUTURE

China continues to wield significant influence across Africa, maintaining its strong presence while others face challenges. While countries like France and the EU are being increasingly sidelined by Sahelian military regimes, and Russia’s mercenary ties are viewed skeptically by pro-Western African governments, China has managed to maintain a balanced approach.

This week, more than 50 African nations sent delegations to Beijing for the latest China-Africa summit, known as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac). The gathering saw the attendance of numerous heads of state, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Among the attendees were long-time leaders such as Congo-Brazzaville's Denis Sassou-Nguesso, and first-timers like Senegal’s new president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who was seated next to President Xi Jinping in a family photo of leaders and their spouses.

For many African governments frustrated by the pressure to take sides in international disputes, China’s neutrality has made it an appealing partner. Beijing’s willingness to collaborate with a wide range of regimes, regardless of their alignment with Moscow or the West, sets it apart. China, however, is no altruist, as it aggressively pursues its own economic interests, especially in securing natural resources in exchange for infrastructure development.

China’s construction projects across Africa, especially in transportation, are a defining feature of its engagement. For example, workers were seen building a highway near Abidjan, Ivory Coast, this week. However, China’s involvement has drawn criticism. It has been accused of pushing African nations into unsustainable debt, being slow to join international debt relief efforts, and favoring Chinese workers over local labor. Despite these complaints, many African governments appreciate Beijing's non-interventionist stance and its readiness to invest where Western institutions often hesitate.

High-profile projects, such as the 2,000km pipeline in Niger, continue even in politically unstable regions. The Winning Consortium, a Chinese-led group, is also advancing a railway project in Guinea to access vast iron ore deposits—another case where other international donors have hesitated.

At this week’s summit, China announced an additional 360 billion yuan ($50.7 billion) in funding over the next three years, with a new emphasis on green energy and manufacturing, especially electric vehicles. This shift signals a broader economic vision, as China aims to foster Africa’s industrialization and move beyond its traditional role of infrastructure financier.

President Xi Jinping also announced plans for 30 clean energy projects and cooperation in the nuclear sector, a sensitive issue for some African countries. For instance, France has long been criticized for mining Niger’s uranium to fuel its nuclear power plants without investing in local energy projects. China, also involved in Niger’s uranium industry, has now signaled a potential shift in its approach to energy cooperation in Africa.

Nevertheless, some of the summit’s outcomes remain ambiguous. While Mr. Xi talked of infrastructure expansion, job creation, and increased cooperation, the real impact of the promised 360 billion yuan remains uncertain. Critics question whether this funding will be distributed fairly and whether it could lead to further debt crises, as Chinese lending terms are often opaque and more expensive than loans from Western institutions.

Over the past decade, China has become Africa’s go-to partner for large infrastructure projects, filling a gap that Western institutions and donors have been reluctant to address. As Africa faces mounting financial pressures, exacerbated by the global economic slowdown, China is positioning itself to be a key player in Africa’s green energy and high-tech industries.

While Western investment in Africa remains heavily focused on traditional sectors like mining, oil, and gas, and Russia maintains its focus on security services for select regimes, China is pushing a more expansive economic agenda. However, it remains to be seen whether China’s involvement will lead to meaningful diversification in African economies or if the focus will continue to be on infrastructure development.

The Focac summit suggests that the China-Africa relationship is evolving, but it’s still unclear if this will result in significant shifts beyond the traditional areas of engagement.