South Sudan’s Endless Dawn
The South Sudanese Civil War is an armed conflict that erupted in December 2013 between factions of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), pitting government forces under President Salva Kiir—predominantly from the Dinka ethnic group—against opposition forces led by former Vice President Riek Machar, mainly from the Nuer ethnic group, amid a power struggle that rapidly devolved into ethnic massacres and militia warfare. Triggered by Kiir's dismissal of Machar and accusations of a coup attempt, the fighting quickly spread from Juba nationwide, exploiting pre-existing clan rivalries and competition over oil revenues in a state lacking robust institutions just two years after independence from Sudan. The war has caused an estimated 400,000 deaths, including from direct violence, famine, and disease, while displacing over 4 million people internally or as refugees, devastating the economy and infrastructure. Both sides have perpetrated atrocities, including targeted killings, rape as a weapon, child soldier recruitment, and scorched-earth tactics, with no faction holding a monopoly on culpability. A Revitalized Agreement in 2018 established a unity government and power-sharing, but implementation stalled due to distrust, constitutional delays, and sporadic clashes, culminating in Machar's house arrest and treason charges by 2025. As of 2025, escalating inter-communal violence and opposition-government skirmishes have displaced hundreds of thousands more, postponed elections to 2026, and heightened risks of collapse into full-scale war again, underscoring the fragility of elite bargains in a resource-cursed, ethnically fragmented polity. International efforts by IGAD, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), and regional actors like Uganda have mediated ceasefires but failed to address underlying governance failures or militia proliferation.
