SHOCK POLL KAMALA +4, TRUMP COLLAPSING

Welcome to the show. A surprising new poll shows Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump nationally by four points, while Trump seems to be faltering and panicking daily. J.D. Vance is experiencing a decline in favorability, losing one point each day. This marks a remarkable shift in American politics. According to the latest Civics Daily Cose poll, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 49 to 45, representing her best performance to date. We will examine how this aligns with the average of current polls. Notably, among voters aged 18 to 34, Harris holds a lead of over 20 points, and she is ahead by nearly 10 points among those aged 35 to 49. However, Trump still maintains a lead among voters aged 50 and older. A significant portion of Democratic voters, 64%, expressed relief that Biden has chosen to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, with only 11% wishing he were still in the running. These figures are quite striking. When we consider the impact of this poll on the overall average, we can think of poll averages as a line and individual polls as points on that line. Incorporating this Kamala plus four poll into the national polling indicates that Trump's lead has diminished by 30% overnight due to a series of recent polls. Remember, not too long ago, Trump was leading by approximately 2% as Biden exited the race, and now, with Harris's entry, Trump's national lead has decreased to 1.4%. This represents a reduction of 0.6 points, equating to a 30% drop. It's important to recognize the limitations of such small changes in polling numbers. The Civics poll is not the only positive indicator for Kamala Harris; previously, Trump led almost every poll, some by just one point. The last four polls show results of Kamala plus four, Trump plus four, and Kamala plus one from both Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult. Looking at the bigger picture, the essential takeaways are that more polls are emerging with Harris in the lead, and Trump's advantage has now shrunk to a fraction over one point. Later in the show, we will delve deeper into potential paths to victory. Many may be listening and thinking about the national numbers, concerned about the electoral college dynamics. The outcome for Harris could hinge on just a few hundred thousand votes in three to five critical swing states, and that perspective is valid. We will explore electoral strategies and approval polling in more detail. Nonetheless, it is remarkable to see individual data points indicating that Kamala Harris is winning by four. If this trend continues over the next two weeks as it has in the past fortnight, we could see significant, statistically meaningful leads for Harris nationally. However, let's also consider the contrasting situation: as Harris's popularity rises, J.D. Vance's prospects appear to be dwindling.