Syria’s Leadership Change: Risks for Christians Amid a Rebel Power Shift

Syria’s Leadership Change: Risks for Christians Amid a Rebel Power Shift

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has plunged the nation into a precarious transition, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, reportedly taking control of much of the country, including the capital. While HTS has sought to brand itself as a stabilizing force, its roots as a former Al-Qaeda affiliate and its Islamist ideology pose grave threats to Syria’s vulnerable Christian population and other religious minorities.

Who Are the Syrian Rebels?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, meaning “The Assembly for the Liberation of the Levant,” evolved from Al-Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front. Despite its efforts to rebrand itself as a legitimate opposition force, HTS continues to enforce a rigid Islamist framework in areas it controls. Jolani’s public appearances and interviews—such as his 2021 discussion with PBS—aim to project moderation, but reports from rebel-held regions paint a starkly different picture.

A 2022 report by the Wilson Center describes HTS as a group that “operates under a strict Islamist ideology, marginalizing minorities and enforcing conformity.” Though HTS distances itself from ISIS’s violent extremism, its governance reflects deep intolerance, leaving Syria’s religious diversity at risk.

Endangered Christians: A Community at Risk

Syria’s Christian population, once over 2.2 million, now stands at approximately 600,000 according to USCIRF’s 2023 report. Years of war, persecution, and forced displacement have left this ancient community hanging by a thread.

In rebel-controlled regions, Christians are often treated as second-class citizens. Churches remain closed or repurposed, and communities live in constant fear of harassment or worse. A resident of Idlib shared with Middle East Eye in 2021: “The promise of freedom under HTS is a lie. Our traditions are erased, our voices silenced.”

The parallels to ISIS’s genocidal campaigns against Christians are chilling. ISIS, recognized by the United Nations for crimes against humanity, implemented mass executions, sexual slavery, and forced conversions to obliterate minority communities. Survivors from Qaraqosh recount the heartbreak of watching families torn apart and churches desecrated. One survivor told The Guardian: “They destroyed everything—our homes, our heritage, our hope.”

HTS’s rule has not reached the scale of ISIS’s atrocities, but its ideological underpinnings and history of oppression offer little assurance for the safety or rights of religious minorities.

The Reality of HTS Governance

HTS’s rule has been lauded by some local Sunni populations for imposing order in the chaos left by Assad’s collapse. However, this comes at a high cost. According to Chatham House’s 2023 analysis, HTS’s governance reflects a “controlled stability built on suppression and fear.” The group’s enforcement of strict Sharia law leaves no room for pluralism or dissent.

Despite Jolani’s claims in 2021 that HTS supports “freedom for all Syrians,” the group’s actions speak louder than its words. Reports from human rights organizations indicate systemic discrimination against religious minorities and oppressive control over daily life in rebel-held areas. Far from being a force for stability, HTS represents yet another chapter of repression for Syria’s Christians.

The Role of the International Community

The international community has a moral obligation to act swiftly. USCIRF warns that without significant intervention, the remaining Christian population in Syria could disappear entirely within a decade. Beyond humanitarian aid, global leaders must apply pressure on HTS to ensure protections for religious minorities or risk being complicit in the erasure of Syria’s diverse cultural fabric.

Diplomatic engagement must prioritize minority rights in any future governance structure for Syria. Meanwhile, international organizations should ramp up efforts to document abuses and hold perpetrators accountable to prevent HTS from following the same path as ISIS.

Syria’s Christians—and other minorities—cannot be left to face this existential threat alone. The world must act now to preserve their lives, their communities, and the invaluable heritage they represent.

References:

Wilson Center: “Shifting Alliances in Syria’s Rebel Governance” (2022)

USCIRF: Annual Report on Religious Freedom (2023)

Middle East Eye, "Life Under HTS in Idlib" (2021)

The Guardian, “Survivors of ISIS Genocide Speak Out” (2020)

Chatham House: “Local Governance in Rebel-Held Syria” (2023)