Is it possible for India to prevent river water from entering Pakistan?

Will India be able to prevent Pakistan from receiving the Indus river and two of its tributaries? That's the question on many minds, after India suspended a major treaty governing water sharing of six rivers in the Indus basin between the two countries, following Tuesday's horrific attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) survived two wars between the nuclear rivals and was seen as an example of trans-boundary water management.

India has taken a number of actions against Pakistan, including the suspension, alleging that Pakistan supports cross-border terrorism, which Islamabad categorically denies. It has also responded by taking retaliatory measures against Delhi and declaring that stopping the flow of water "will be considered an Act of War." The treaty gave India the three eastern rivers of the Indus basin—the Ravi, the Beas, and the Sutlej—while giving Pakistan 80 percent of the three western rivers—the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab. Pakistan argued that some of India's hydropower and water infrastructure projects would reduce river flows and violate the treaty, which led to conflict. (The water from the Indus basin is used for more than 80% of Pakistan's agriculture and about a third of its hydropower.)

In the meantime, India has been pushing for a review and modification of the treaty, citing shifting requirements due to factors like climate change, such as hydropower and drinking water and irrigation. Over the years, Pakistan and India have pursued competing legal avenues under the treaty brokered by the World Bank.

But this is the first time either side has announced a suspension - and notably, it's the upstream country, India, giving it a geographic advantage.

But what does the suspension really mean? Could India divert or hold back the waters of the Indus basin, denying Pakistan its lifeline? And is it even capable of doing so?

Experts say it's nearly impossible for India to hold back tens of billions of cubic metres of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods. It lacks the extensive canals and massive storage infrastructure necessary to divert such volumes. "The infrastructure India has are mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants that do not need massive storage," said Himanshu Thakkar, a regional water resources expert with the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.

Without holding back a lot of water, these hydropower plants spin turbines and generate electricity with the force of running water. According to Indian experts, India has not been able to fully utilize even its 20 percent share of the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus waters under the terms of the treaty. This is one of the main arguments they have for building storage structures, which Pakistan opposes citing treaty provisions. Experts say that India can now build new infrastructure or modify existing ones to divert or hold back more water without telling Pakistan. "Unlike in the past, India will now not be required to share its project documents with Pakistan," said Mr Thakkar.

However, the construction of water infrastructure in the Indus basin has not progressed sufficiently due to obstacles like difficult terrain and internal protests against some of India's projects. After a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2016, Indian water resources ministry officials had told the BBC they would speed up construction of several dams and water storage projects in the Indus basin.

According to sources, there has been limited progress on these projects, despite the lack of official information regarding their status. Some experts say that if India begins controlling the flow with its existing and potential infrastructure, Pakistan could feel the impact during the dry season, when water availability is already at its lowest.

"A more pressing concern is what happens in the dry season - when the flows across the basin are lower, storage matters more, and timing becomes more critical," Hassan F Khan, assistant professor of Urban Environmental Policy and Environmental Studies at Tufts University, wrote in the Dawn newspaper.

"That is where the absence of treaty constraints could start to be felt more acutely."

The treaty requires India to share hydrological data with Pakistan - crucial for flood forecasting and planning for irrigation, hydropower and drinking water.

India can now stop sharing flood data with Pakistan, according to Pradeep Kumar Saxena, the country's former IWT commissioner for over six years. The region sees damaging floods during the monsoon season, which begins in June and lasts until September. However, authorities in Pakistan have stated that India already shared very little hydrological data. BBC Urdu was informed by Pakistan's former additional commissioner of the Indus Waters Treaty, Shiraz Memon, that "India was sharing only around 40% of the data even before it made the latest announcement." Another issue that comes up each time there is water-related tension in the region is if the upstream country can "weaponise" water against the downstream country.

This is often called a "water bomb", where the upstream country can temporarily hold back water and then release it suddenly, without warning, causing massive damage downstream.

Can India accomplish that? India's dams are far from Pakistan's border, so experts say it would first risk flooding its own land. However, it could now flush silt from its reservoirs without prior warning - potentially causing damage downstream in Pakistan.

How water shortages are brewing wars

Himalayan rivers like the Indus carry high silt levels, which quickly accumulate in dams and barrages. Sudden flushing of this silt can cause significant downstream damage.

The Indus River originates in Tibet, and India is downstream of China in the Brahmaputra basin. China blocked a tributary of the Yarlung Tsangpo, which eventually becomes the Brahmaputra in northeast India, in 2016 after India issued a warning that "blood and water cannot flow together" in response to a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan. China, whose ally Pakistan is, claimed that they had done so because a hydropower project they were developing near the border required it. However, Beijing was seen as coming to Islamabad's aid because of the timing of the move. China has given the go-ahead for the construction of the world's largest dam on the lower reaches of Yarlung Tsangpo, following the construction of several hydropower plants in Tibet. Although Beijing claims to have little effect on the environment, India is concerned that it could grant China significant control over the river's flow.

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